Europe holds 10% of global aluminium extrusion demand, supported by Germany’s Constellium, France’s Hydro Extrusions & Italy’s Metra
Across Europe, aluminium extrusion has become closely woven into some of the region’s biggest industrial and construction markets. From automotive and transport to buildings and industrial applications, extruded profiles are finding demand across a wide range of sectors. This is reflected in Europe’s position in the global market: the region accounted for 12 per cent of global aluminium extrusion capacity, making it the second-largest regional contributor after China. At the same time, Europe represented 10 per cent of global aluminium extrusion usage, out of total global usage of 35.35 million tonnes . With production capacity and usage shares relatively close, Europe’s extrusion capacity and consumption are broadly at par. If we break down Europe’s 10 per cent share of global aluminium...
H1 2026 sees more renewable energy than ever: Here’s a region-by-region guide to renewable energy supply in the recent past
In the first half of 2025, humanity generated more electricity from renewables than from coal for the first time ever. What led to it? It was possible only because of two decades of falling solar panel prices, taller wind turbines, and governments finally treating clean power like an economic opportunity instead of a favour to the planet. But the renewable energy scenario cannot be portrayed as a single global story. To get the full picture, one has to connect dozens of regional stories moving at wildly different speeds. Some countries are already powered almost entirely by sun, wind and water. Others are still warming up. Here is a tour of how renewable energy supply looks across the world’s regions right now, and who is actually leading the charge. The global scorecard: Renewable energy...
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66% and counting: China leads aluminium extrusions as India’s demand nears 858,000 tonnes
The centre of gravity of the global aluminium extrusion market is increasingly difficult to locate anywhere but Asia. China already sits at a scale that no other extrusion-producing country approaches. AL Circle's The World of Aluminium Extrusions – Industry Forecast to 2030 estimated China's aluminium extrusion usage at 20.94 million tonnes in 2023, against global consumption of approximately 31.5 million tonnes. That means, roughly two out of every three tonnes of aluminium extrusions consumed worldwide were used in China. The same study estimated that Chinese extruders had more than 30 million tonnes of annual capacity, while China's extrusion demand could approach 27.5 million tonnes by 2030. On the other hand, India operates on an entirely different scale, but perhaps on a more...
AL Circle Analysis: The new downstream aluminium investment map – where investors should watch
The aluminium industry's growth story is increasingly being shaped by value-added manufacturing rather than production volumes. Robust earnings, expansion projects and business diversification continued to strengthen confidence in downstream aluminium, with several producers raising their outlooks despite macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds. At the same time, global trade trends favoured economies with stronger downstream capabilities, while weaker exports in some regions and governance challenges highlighted that growth across the industry remains uneven. Key takeaways Constellium reported record quarterly results, with revenue rising 31 per cent to USD 2.7 billion and net income increasing to USD 148 million. The company raised its full-year 2026 guidance and brought its 2028...
AL Circle Analysis: H1’26 bauxite export, softer alumina, new aluminium supply risks
The global aluminium value chain faced mixed signals in the first half (H1) of 2026, with production growth in key regions, evolving trade flows and emerging supply risks shaping the market. From Guinea’s record bauxite exports and China’s growing alumina and aluminium output to disruptions in Indonesia and the Middle East, offer important insights for producers, traders, suppliers and buyers. Guinea’s exports rise, miners under pressure, Africa seeks value addition During H1 2026, Guinea exported a record 114.8 million tonnes of bauxite , up 15 per cent year-on-year. Strong Chinese demand reinforced shipments despite rising operating costs for smaller mines. However, weak global bauxite prices, higher fuel and freight prices owing to the Middle East conflict and heavy rains have squeezed...
Brazil’s alumina ambition leaves a 13Mt red mud challenge: How effective is residue handling? The story behind one of aluminium's largest residues
Every year, Brazil produces more than 13 million tonnes of red mud, making it one of the world's largest generators of the aluminium industry's biggest industrial residue. Created during alumina refining, red mud is unavoidable-but the amount produced is never determined by the residue itself. It depends on everything that happens much earlier, from the quality of bauxite entering a refinery to how efficiently alumina is extracted. In 2025, Brazil mined 33 million tonnes of bauxite. Around 27 million tonnes of that ore was refined domestically, producing 10.86 million tonnes of alumina and ultimately generating around 13.5 million tonnes of red mud. The numbers appear straightforward, showing stable red mud generation alongside rising bauxite production. The explanation begins long before...
70.24Mt, six regions, one production story: Global alumina output stays steady in H1 2026 even after declines in Africa and Europe
Global metallurgical-grade alumina production remained almost unchanged in the first half of 2026, totalling 70.24 million tonnes, compared with 70.27 million tonnes in H1 2025-a marginal decline of just 0.04 per cent year on year. But that near-flat headline conceals one of the most eventful six-month periods the alumina industry has witnessed in recent years. While China's expanding refining capacity helped cushion the global output, Africa and Asia (excluding China) struggled with tightening bauxite availability and weakening refinery margins. North America remained constrained by operational changes at its only operating refinery, Europe continued to battle elevated energy costs, Oceania adjusted to the permanent loss of refining capacity, and South America stood out as one of the few...
Aluminium grabs the headlines, but the LME alumina price trend quietly rewrites margins, economics and supply risk
Aluminium prices command the market's attention because they determine the value of the finished metal that carmakers, packaging manufacturers and construction firms ultimately buy. Yet one step up the supply chain, a quieter benchmark has spent the past three years doing something aluminium rarely does: moving on its own terms. Alumina, the intermediate product refined from bauxite and smelted into primary aluminium, surged past USD 800 per tonne in late 2024, lost more than half its value within months and, by mid-2026, was trading near USD 330 per tonne even as aluminium climbed towards multi-year highs. Traders focused solely on the LME aluminium price would have missed much of that story. The LME alumina price trend is where it began. Reading the LME alumina price trend through its...
Is India ready to unlock the full potential of non-ferrous metal recycling?
India accelerates transition toward circular non-ferrous economy Duty reform targets downstream manufacturing competitiveness India’s non-ferrous metals sector covering aluminium, copper, zinc, and lead is at a defining moment. As the country advances toward its Viksit Bharat 2047 vision, recycling is emerging as a critical pillar for supply security, cost efficiency, resource efficiency, and decarbonisation. While policy momentum is strengthening, structural gaps across scrap visibility, infrastructure, formalisation, and import dependence continue to limit the sectors full potential. EPR rollout to formalise scrap flows and improve traceability The rollout of Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) under the Hazardous and Other Wastes Second Amendment Rules, 2024, effective April 2025,...
US Fed keeps interest rates 1.75% higher than its target: What it means for the aluminium industry
The US Federal Reserve has kept the interest rates unchanged, keeping the benchmark federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75 per cent for the fourth consecutive meeting. The decision, approved unanimously in a 12-0 vote by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), was widely expected by financial markets and keeps the benchmark rate at its lowest level since November 2022. At first glance, the decision appears to be a routine policy hold. But for the aluminium industry, it offers a clearer picture of the economic environment shaping demand, production costs and metal prices. The Fed's decision signals that inflation remains a concern, particularly as rising energy prices have altered expectations for monetary policy. Earlier this year, markets anticipated one or two rate cuts in 2026, but those...
AL Circle Analysis: How the US, Europe and Asia are reshaping 2026 aluminium map
The global aluminium industry is increasingly tying growth to decarbonisation, supply security and circularity. North America is prioritising stronger scrap recovery and domestic supply chains, Europe is balancing scrap retention with climate goals under CBAM, while Asia is driving demand through rising scrap imports, recycling expansion and carbon-focused policy reforms. Across all three regions, aluminium scrap, clean energy and carbon competitiveness are emerging as key pillars of long-term industrial strategy. North America: The US The Aluminum Association has urged US policymakers to adopt a comprehensive strategy combining domestic primary production, recycling, affordable energy, trade enforcement and scrap export controls to build a stronger, more resilient aluminium supply chain....
Aluminium margin squeeze in smartphones driven by AI Demand, Memory Costs and Titanium Shift
Executive Summary: The component cost crisis: Driven by the explosive demands of Artificial Intelligence data centres, global smartphone memory prices skyrocketed. This pushed flagship Bill of Materials (BOM) costs up by nearly USD 300, forcing smartphone OEMs to cut costs in their structural chassis. The Titanium Reversal: Apple and Samsung abandoned titanium's thermal constraints for their latest flagships. Next-generation AI processors run dangerously hot, and titanium acts as a thermal insulator. The industry was forced to revert to hot-forged 7000-series aluminium to prevent catastrophic thermal throttling. The Upstream Threat: While switching back to aluminium solved the thermal crisis, downstream manufacturers walked into a global supply chain trap. Geopolitical conflicts in the...
2026 Middle East aluminium outlook: 5% of global supply, USD 7 million insurance and the Hormuz effect
On March 28, the US-Iran tension took a new turn as Iranian missiles struck the Khalifa Economic Zone in Abu Dhabi, damaging the alumina refinery that feeds Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah smelter, the largest aluminium production complex in the Gulf. Four hundred kilometres south-west, Aluminium Bahrain declared force majeure and shut roughly a fifth of its capacity, citing the same conflict. Neither company builds weapons, ships crude, or has any stake in the war between the United States, Israel and Iran. For several weeks this spring, two of the world’s most competitive aluminium producers became collateral damage in someone else's fight. That is the detail worth sitting with, because it reframes the question the industry has been asking since renewed US-Iran hostilities put...
India: Imported aluminium scrap prices increase W-o-W; LME aluminium edges up
India's imported aluminium scrap prices increased w-o-w, supported by slightly stronger LME aluminium prices. According to BigMint's latest assessment for CFR Nhava Sheva deliveries, UK-origin zorba 95-5 scrap prices rose by USD 15/t w-o-w to USD 2,700 per tonne, while LME aluminium edges up W-o-W Three-month aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) traded slightly higher w-o-w, closing at USD 3,175/t on 21 July against USD 3,167.5/t on 14 July, up by USD 7.5 per tonne, or 0.2 per cent W-o-W. Meanwhile, LME aluminium inventories declined by 4,825 t, or 1.7 per cent W-o-W, to 279,775 tonnes on 21 July from 284,600 tonnes on 14 July. LME aluminium prices edged up W-o-W, supported by declining exchange inventories and continued concerns over tight global supply. Although...
Secondary aluminium margin trap: How toxic dross, CBAM, and 2.5% import duty are destroying the recycling arbitrage
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The carbon legislation trap: The CBAM Omnibus 2025 update has eliminated the zero-emission loophole for pre-consumer scrap. Secondary aluminium producers using primary factory off-cuts must now declare massive upstream carbon footprints, destroying their European export margins. The geopolitical squeeze: As the EU prepares to ban metal scrap exports, import-dependent nations face a catastrophic supply deficit. Indian aluminium recyclers are uniquely crippled by a 2.5 per cent Basic Customs Duty on scrap, creating an inverted duty structure that heavily favours zero-tariff ASEAN competitors. The zero-waste imperative: Environmental regulators are aggressively shutting down informal dross processors. To survive, the industry must pivot to AI-driven LIBS precision sorting...
The blind border: Who actually wins from aluminum’s first CBAM year
On April 7, 2026, the industry got what it had waited three years for: the European Commission priced carbon at the border for the first time. A CBAM certificate for the first quarter costs EUR 75.36 per tonne of CO2 equivalent, for the second EUR 75.28. Every tonne of aluminium entering the European Union now has two prices: one for the metal and one for its origin. The logic seems obvious from here: the dirtier the metal, the more the border charges, clean producers win, coal-based producers lose. That is how the mechanism was conceived and how the market reads it. Walk through the first-year rules with a calculator, however, and the picture turns upside down. A border built to see carbon does not yet see most of it - and so it rewards not the cleanest producers but the best-organised...
Aluminium nears 46Mt, exceeds 45Mt cap? Production growth tests China’s green transition
China, the largest producer of primary aluminium on the global platform, continues to raise its annual output despite maintaining a 45-million-tonne production cap. So, what's powering its industry's continued growth? In the January-June phase or the first half (H1) of 2026, China produced 22.34 million tonnes. Considering historical data, the figure has gone up year-on-year. H1 2026 – 22.34 million tonnes, up 2.24 per cent Y-o-Y from 21.85 million tonnes in H1 2025 H1 2025 – 21.85 million tonnes, up 2.59 per cent Y-o-Y from 21.3 million tonnes in H1 2024 A clear growth rate is visible over the years as China solidifies its position in the global aluminium production race. On the flipside, the yearly surge makes way for another vital question to the forefront – If the 45-million-tonne...
Beyond the tariff wall: Will Washington’s new aluminium incentive programme succeed where tariffs alone failed?
Seven years after Section 232 tariffs first shielded US aluminium producers, America still imports 60 per cent of the primary aluminium it consumes. That single statistic, buried in the US Geological Survey’s 2026 Mineral Commodity Summary, is the uncomfortable backdrop to President Trump’s latest move. On July 20, Trump signed a proclamation directing the Commerce Secretary to build an incentive programme around the existing aluminium tariff regime, alongside an executive order tightening critical mineral sourcing rules for defence contractors. The headlines called it tariff policy. The real question is narrower and more interesting: can a tariff discount , offered only to companies that build new smelting capacity, do what a decade of tariff walls could not? Why America still cannot...
Oceania's H1 2026 primary aluminium production rises 2.2% Y-o-Y to 943,000t as Q2 recovery offsets weather-hit Q1
The first quarter of 2026 brought a temporary setback for Oceania's primary aluminium production, but it did not define the first half of the year. Although production declined from the last year Q4, due to upstream supply disruptions and seasonal operational factors, the region regained momentum in Q2, 2026 as output strengthened. Oceania's primary aluminium production rebounded in the second quarter of 2026, rising to 476,000 from 467,000 in the first quarter, representing a 1.9 per cent quarter-on-quarter increase. On a year-on-year basis, Oceania's primary aluminium production reached 943,000 in H1 2026, compared with 923,000 in H1 2025, an increase 2.2 per cent. Higher quarterly output drove first-half growth The stronger first-half performance was underpinned by higher production in...
AL Circle analysis: Where is the aluminium downstream market headed? Tariffs, trade, AI, investments
The global aluminium downstream market has been experiencing staggering declines, mapped with price and trade volatility. Recent incidents and market trends are must-watch, to be monitored closely for navigating and decision-making about future trading, hedging and subsequent investments. Products in the spotlight and where to buy them The global aluminium coffee capsule market is expanding rapidly, driven by rising coffee consumption and demand for convenient, premium-quality brewing solutions. Valued at USD 2.48 billion in 2025, the market is projected to reach USD 4.5 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 8.1 per cent. Europe accounts for about 40 per cent of global aluminium coffee capsule consumption, followed by North America with 32 per cent. The industry's growth is driven by...
