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AL Circle Analysis: 243% US scrap rise, 6Mt European recycling & Germany’s power fix drive aluminium trade
Aluminium’s trade map is no longer drawn by smelters alone. Scrap flows, power contracts, industrial policy and specialist grades now shape who secures metal, at what cost and under whose rules. Ten recent developments across Europe, the US, Australia, Japan and Mexico show how recycling, energy and regulation are becoming the new levers of aluminium competitiveness. They also show where traders, exporters and policymakers may need to adjust. Scrap tug-of-war: the US pull, Europe’s leak and the recycling base at stake The pull starts with price. The US UBC scrap benchmark averaged USD 2,322.89 a tonne in July, USD 2,491.22 in August and USD 2,602.51 in September. That is a 12 per cent climb, and it came after a July that opened at USD 2,464.98 and fell to USD 2,270.76 within two days....
Europe’s 9M 2026 aluminium production jumps to 5.56Mt as smelter restarts gain ground
As the global aluminium supply chain continues to swing between shifts and crunches, how has Europe fared on the production front in the 2026 year-to-date calendar? Substantially well, going by the output figures. Between January and September 2026, the European continent, including Russia, has produced a total of 5.56 million tonnes of primary aluminium, building a significant year-on-year growth chart. The nine-month growth chart Set against the same period of 2025, the first nine months of 2026 show a clear lift in output. From January to September 2026, Europe, including Russia, produced 5.56 million tonnes of primary aluminium, raising the annual growth rate by 5.69 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) over the 5.26 million tonnes produced in 2025. Explore the production, demand and...
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Europe’s recycled aluminium production: Germany, Italy and the UK anchor a competitive market
Europe’s recycled aluminium industry is an important component of the global secondary aluminium supply chain, with Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom (UK) representing key national markets. Production across the European region stood at nearly 6 million tonnes in 2023, supported by established scrap recovery systems, industrial recycling capacity and demand for recycled metal. Russia also contributes to the regional landscape through secondary aluminium production units concentrated in several industrial centres. According to AL Circle’s analysis in its report, “ World Recycled ALuminium Market Analysis Industry Forecast ”, the four countries present different market structures, from Germany’s substantial recycling capacity and Italy’s scrap-based production to the UK’s organised...
Global EV sales to hit 35.4 million by 2030, with aluminium usage forecast to rise 38% in North America & 79% in China
From just 2 million vehicles in 2018 to a projected 35.4 million in 2030, the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) is reshaping the global automotive industry - and changing how much aluminium goes into every car. As automakers expand EV production, aluminium is finding new applications in battery enclosures, electric-drive housings, vehicle bodies and structural components, making the metal an increasingly important part of the industry's transition. Global sales of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are projected to reach 23.3 million units in 2026, up 11 per cent from 21 million in 2025. Sales are forecast to rise to 26.1 million in 2027, 29.2 million in 2028 and 32.2 million in 2029, before reaching 35.4 million in 2030. The market has grown...
AL Circle analysis: How do Germany’s 32.8% automotive aluminium share, 40% Diet Coke can price rise & 3.54Mt North American extrusion demand matter?
Aluminium’s downstream and end-user world is having one of those fortnights where a beer can, a luxury sports car, a German construction site and an Indian furnace all end up in the same conversation. The metal may begin its life far upstream, but its real fuss is playing out in cans, cars, extrusions, buildings and factories, where tariffs, trade policy, energy costs and demand cycles decide who wins. This fortnight highlights that aluminium demand is moving towards electric vehicles, lightweight transport and long-life infrastructure, even as packaging and construction feel the pinch of cost and weak activity. Meanwhile, producers from Vietnam to New Zealand are arguing over the oldest question in the business of how much protection, taxation or openness does a downstream industry need...
AL Circle Analysis: Guinea’s 150Mt bauxite cap, China’s import swings, US tariffs draw aluminium Q4’26
The global aluminium supply chain is facing a series of changes that extend from bauxite mines and alumina refineries to smelters, regional premiums and finished-metal trade. In 2026, the market’s direction is being shaped not only by production volumes but also by freight costs, export restrictions, shifting Chinese demand and tariffs. Developments across Guinea, Australia, China, Europe and North America point to a market where access to supply is increasingly as important as the availability of raw materials. Bauxite supply: Guinea’s cap meets a well-stocked China, but is it stable? Guinea remains central to the seaborne bauxite market, with its shipment connections to China demonstrating the importance of reliable logistics. A new sea-rail route has enabled a Guinea bauxite shipment...
EU approves Germany’s power relief instrument: Could aluminium producers save €459m annually?
Germany’s aluminium industry could receive some relief from persistently high electricity costs after the European Commission, under the European Union (EU) approved the country’s industrial electricity price scheme for 2026–2028. The measure is intended to ease the burden on energy-intensive businesses, strengthen industrial competitiveness and support Germany’s position as a manufacturing hub. The stakes are particularly high for aluminium producers. Electricity can account for 30–40 per cent of primary aluminium production costs, making power prices a critical factor in operating margins and investment decisions. Explore- Most comprehensive and forward-looking industry-focused report — Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply–Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook...
North America’s aluminum extrusion demand set to reach 3.54Mt by 2035: The end-use sectors behind the climb
After a soft 2025 and a near-flat 2026, North American aluminum extrusion demand is forecast to climb from 2.91 million tons in 2025 to 3.54 million tons by 2035. The lift is expected to come less from construction volume and more from transportation, data centers, grid and solar, and engineered industrial profiles. North America’s aluminum extrusion forecast: 630 thousand tons of new demand by 2035 North America is one of the most mature aluminum extrusion markets in the world, and its forecast reflects that. Usage is projected to rise from 2.91 million tons in 2025 to 3.54 million tons in 2035, an addition of about 0.63 million tons and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 1.99%. That is slightly below the 2.29% CAGR expected for global extrusion demand, which is set to grow...
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