AL Circle Analysis: 243% US scrap rise, 6Mt European recycling & Germany’s power fix drive aluminium trade
Aluminium’s trade map is no longer drawn by smelters alone. Scrap flows, power contracts, industrial policy and specialist grades now shape who secures metal, at what cost and under whose rules. Ten recent developments across Europe, the US, Australia, Japan and Mexico show how recycling, energy and regulation are becoming the new levers of aluminium competitiveness. They also show where traders, exporters and policymakers may need to adjust. Scrap tug-of-war: the US pull, Europe’s leak and the recycling base at stake The pull starts with price. The US UBC scrap benchmark averaged USD 2,322.89 a tonne in July, USD 2,491.22 in August and USD 2,602.51 in September. That is a 12 per cent climb, and it came after a July that opened at USD 2,464.98 and fell to USD 2,270.76 within two days....
Europe’s 9M 2026 aluminium production jumps to 5.56Mt as smelter restarts gain ground
As the global aluminium supply chain continues to swing between shifts and crunches, how has Europe fared on the production front in the 2026 year-to-date calendar? Substantially well, going by the output figures. Between January and September 2026, the European continent, including Russia, has produced a total of 5.56 million tonnes of primary aluminium, building a significant year-on-year growth chart. The nine-month growth chart Set against the same period of 2025, the first nine months of 2026 show a clear lift in output. From January to September 2026, Europe, including Russia, produced 5.56 million tonnes of primary aluminium, raising the annual growth rate by 5.69 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) over the 5.26 million tonnes produced in 2025. Explore the production, demand and...
Grow with
AL Circle
US produced 339kt aluminum in H1 2026: Can new projects change the outlook?
The US aluminum industry, through its troubled journey over the past four decades, has been holding on to its remaining active smelters to maintain domestic aluminum production. However, its production figures reveal how little ground it has regained. Stability has been a strong suit, with 339,000 metric tons produced in H1 2026, yet matching the volume recorded in H1 2024. With domestic primary production still constrained, the focus is shifting to whether the Century Aluminum’s Mt Holly restart and the proposed Oklahoma primary aluminum smelter can turn modest gains into a sustained supply revival. Explore the production, demand and consumption forecasts of bauxite and alumina in our report: “ Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply–Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook ”...
Germany exports 86% of TRIMET’s aluminium production despite 1.84Mt domestic demand from automotive, packaging & extrusion industries
Germany’s last remaining primary aluminium producer, TRIMET Aluminium SE, has a combined nameplate capacity of approximately 540,000 tonnes per year across its German and French smelters. Yet Germany exported 466,756 tonnes of unwrought primary aluminium in 2025, equivalent to 86.44 per cent of that combined capacity. Exports reached 501,678 tonnes in 2023 and 449,590 tonnes in 2024, while shipments totalled 273,080 tonnes between January and July 2026. The comparison presents an intriguing picture of Germany’s aluminium industry. Despite having a limited primary smelting base, the country continues to export hundreds of thousands of tonnes of unwrought aluminium annually. At the same time, it imported 2 million tonnes of primary aluminium in 2025, more than four times its exports. Why...
Indonesian Aluminium: The shift from mining to smelting
Indonesia is pitched as the next big Asian aluminium hub as the country has released an expansive alumina and aluminium expansion plan, based on the abundant bauxite resource in the country. China has exhausted its aluminium capacity cap and is unlikely to raise installed capacity significantly in the coming years. Additionally, geopolitical conflicts, sanctions, and tariffs have made much of global aluminium capacity inaccessible and vulnerable. This includes Russian aluminium and the Gulf output, along with restricted and costly access to Canadian aluminium for the US smelters. The already tight supply conditions have been made worse after the Iran-Israel-US war that disrupted the Gulf aluminium capacity. Under current supply conditions, India and Indonesia will play a critical role in...
Germany’s automotive industry drives 32.8% of aluminium consumption as EV production rises 23%, led by Volkswagen, BMW & Mercedes-Benz
Germany’s automobile industry is a major part of the country’s aluminium story, with the metal used in everything from vehicle body panels and chassis components to battery enclosures and electric-drive systems. As automakers develop lighter vehicles and expand their electric models, aluminium has become an important material across the manufacturing process. Germany’s automotive industry consumes around 950,000 tonnes of aluminium annually, accounting for a substantial share of the wider transport sector’s demand. In 2025, Germany’s total aluminium consumption stood at approximately 2.9 million tonnes, with the transport sector accounting for 1.35 million tonnes, representing 46 per cent of the total. This extensive use of aluminium in transport mirrors its importance to the global...
AL Circle Analysis: US scrap imports hit 580kt as China slips 3.2%, who drives aluminium recycling?
Aluminium scrap is no longer a side story in the metal’s market. Rather, aluminium’s next standoff is over scrap. As US imports surge 37 per cent while China’s purchases decline, manufacturers in Europe and India are confronting a common challenge of securing affordable, reliable raw materials. With recycling rates, trade barriers and low-carbon production reshaping market, the global industry faces a critical question: who will control the metal that powers its circular future? Join the fourth edition of the webinar "Hedging for recyclers - Become an expert in 6 hours" by Jorge Dyszel. A 1.1-billion-tonne stockpile: US stocks up, China steps back, India asks for access The US imported 580,000 tonnes of aluminium scrap worth USD 2.07 billion in H1 2026 , with Canada accounting for 63.62...
A should-cost analysis of an aluminium tower furnace in India: Comparing the economics of LPG, PNG, and electric energy sources
In precision non-ferrous casting and high-volume die-casting operations, thermal energy conversion represents one of the largest controllable operating expenses. In modern aluminium foundries, where margins are squeezed by primary metal price fluctuations and stringent customer cost breakdowns, even a modest INR 1–2/kg variance in liquid metal melting cost can translate into tens of lakhs of rupees in annual cost differences. A rigorous, transparent should-cost benchmark is therefore essential for procurement teams, foundry managers and strategic sourcing leaders. This analysis examines a baseline should-cost model for a 1,000 kg/hour aluminium shaft or tower furnace in an industrial foundry. It compares liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), piped natural gas (PNG) and electric energy across...
Germany’s construction aluminium demand falls 12%, but 2027 recovery and recycling offer fresh growth prospects
Germany’s construction industry has endured several years of contraction, weighed down by elevated financing costs, expensive building materials and subdued residential investment. The downturn has also affected the country’s aluminium industry, with estimated construction-related aluminium consumption declining by around 12 per cent between 2022 and 2025. However, the outlook is beginning to change. With Germany’s construction industry projected to return to growth in 2026 and accelerate further in 2027, opportunities are emerging for aluminium suppliers across residential construction, transport infrastructure, energy networks and commercial developments. At the same time, efforts to strengthen closed-loop aluminium recycling in buildings could provide an additional avenue for growth....
AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
India’s bauxite imports jump 129.5% in H1 2026: Quality gap, refinery expansion outpace 25Mt domestic output
India is producing around 25 million tonnes of bauxite a year, has 4.958 billion tonnes of bauxite resources, and currently produces around 9.5 million tonnes of alumina annually. Yet instead of declining, the country's bauxite imports have been rising. India’s bauxite imports reached 3.70 million tonnes in H1 2026, more than twice the 1.612 million tonnes recorded in H1 2025. The increase of 2.088 million tonnes, or 129.5 per cent, has brought a key question into focus: why are imports rising when domestic bauxite production appears sufficient for current alumina output? The answer becomes clearer when India's bauxite supply is viewed alongside ore quality, refinery requirements, mine development and the rapid expansion of alumina capacity. India’s bauxite production has recovered...
Who’s holding up Germany’s aluminium game? Meet EGA, Hydro and Constellium
Germany does cars, machinery and engineering rather well, and all of that needs a lot of aluminium. So, when three international players put serious money and muscle into the country's aluminium industry, it's worth a look. Together, the three companies offer an interesting snapshot of more recycling, more specialised products, stronger local supply chains and lower-carbon production. Here is who is doing what, and why it matters. EGA: The Gulf giant moving into Hannover Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) is the world's largest "premium aluminium" producer. It already ships over 600,000 tonnes of primary aluminium to Europe every year, with the automotive and construction industries among its key customers. Then it did something it hadn't done in a decade: it bought a company. That company...
Germany’s aluminium FRP consumption reaches 1.68 Mt as 2025 trade surplus tops $3.1 billion
Germany’s aluminium flat-rolled products (FRP) market is revealing a striking disconnect between its shrinking primary aluminium base and its still substantial downstream manufacturing capacity. Estimated German FRP consumption reached 1.68 million tonnes in 2025, up from approximately 1.66 million tonnes in 2024, even as domestic primary aluminium production had fallen sharply in previous years. The latest trade data add another layer to the picture. Germany’s combined imports of aluminium plates, sheets and strip above 0.2 mm (CN 7606) and aluminium foil of 0.2 mm or less (CN 7607) reached approximately USD 5.04 billion in 2025, while exports climbed to USD 8.18 billion. That left a combined trade surplus of about USD 3.14 billion across the two FRP categories. Germany remains a net...
AL Circle Analysis: Europe’s aluminium scrap curbs, India’s risk and US’s supply opportunity
Aluminium recycling is supposed to be the industry’s easiest win — economic and eco-friendly. Interestingly, this is where the plot thickens. Aluminium recycling is moving from a sustainability objective to a strategic supply-chain issue, with scrap availability, domestic recovery, cross-border waste rules and decarbonisation policy influencing where recycled metal can be produced and consumed. Recent developments across Europe, such as the UK and Greece, in the US and India reveal that investment in recycling is accelerating, but access to suitable scrap and the rules governing its movement are becoming equally important. Join the fourth edition of the webinar "Hedging for recyclers - Become an expert in 6 hours" by Jorge Dyszel. Europe wants more recycled aluminium, but what is the...
German downstream aluminium exports fall 13% in H1 2026 but US enters top 5 with 228.1% import surge
Germany’s downstream aluminium export map underwent a noticeable shift in H1 2026. Shipments to the world fell, with most of Germany’s traditional European customers taking less aluminium downstream product. Yet, amid that broad retreat, one market moved in the opposite direction: the United States. German downstream aluminium exports to the world fell to 897,773.19 tonnes in H1 2026 from 1 million tonnes in H1 2025, a decline of 13 per cent year on year. The contrast was particularly sharp in the US market. American imports of German downstream aluminium reached 68,061.61 tonnes in H1 2026, up 228.1 per cent from just 20,743.62 tonnes in H1 2025. The increase of more than 47,000 tonnes was enough to push the US into Germany’s top 5 destinations for the first time. The export map is...
Caustic soda plant setup in India: How aluminium growth is reshaping demand, costs and opportunities
Caustic soda may not be the most visible ingredient in aluminium production, but without it, the journey from bauxite to alumina would look very different. The chemical, also known as sodium hydroxide, is a crucial reagent in the Bayer process, where it helps dissolve alumina-bearing material in bauxite and separate it from impurities. The dissolved material is then processed to recover alumina, which ultimately feeds aluminium production. That makes caustic soda more than just another industrial chemical. Its availability, price and efficient use can influence the economics of alumina refining and, by extension, the wider aluminium value chain. As India expands its alumina and aluminium capacity, the requirement for this chemical is also becoming increasingly important. For companies...
Aluminum investment across North America and Asia: Who leads reshaping the next phase of growth?
Aluminum investment has been spreading across the entire value chain, from primary smelting and alumina refining to recycling, rolling, extrusion and battery foil, building more integrated and higher-value supply chains. During the past 5 years, the US and Canada in North America and China in Asia have been grabbing headlines pertaining to the aluminum industry. These updates have involved growth stories or have shed light on volatile market situations. How have these headlines contributed to a greater picture for the benefit of the aluminum industries of the two continents? Between 2021 and 2026, major projects across North America and Asia have targeted new primary capacity, lower-carbon production, recycled aluminum and higher-value downstream products. But the investment pattern is...
AL Circle Analysis: From 13% costlier cans to 317 GW solar, aluminium trade enters new territory
As aluminium continues to draw the spotlight as a strategic variable in global trade rather than a merely traded commodity. Tariffs imposed at the border are now showing up in the cost of cans, auto components and downstream products, while high copper prices are encouraging manufacturers to redesign products around aluminium. Meanwhile, India is tightening protection around selected aluminium products even as domestic downstream manufacturers question the cost of protecting primary metal. China’s extrusion industry is adjusting to weaker construction demand by moving towards solar, batteries and other clean-energy applications. In North America, deeply integrated supply chains are confronting the consequences of suddenly changing tariff economics. To know the global production, demand...
AL Circle Analysis: Bauxite developments, alumina trade & primary aluminium market dynamics across Australia, Guinea, US & India
The aluminium industry is entering another phase of supply-chain repositioning. Across bauxite, alumina and primary aluminium, companies are investing in new resources, consolidating strategic assets and expanding processing capacity, while governments are increasingly treating domestic supply as a strategic priority. The latest developments from Australia, Guyana, Guinea, Indonesia, the US and India point to a market where resource security, processing location and control over supply chains are becoming as important as production growth. At the same time, new trading mechanisms and changing investment patterns are beginning to influence how aluminium and its raw materials reach the market. Bauxite supply expands, but securing the right tonnes is becoming harder In Western Australia, VBX...
