AL Circle Analysis: 243% US scrap rise, 6Mt European recycling & Germany’s power fix drive aluminium trade
Aluminium’s trade map is no longer drawn by smelters alone. Scrap flows, power contracts, industrial policy and specialist grades now shape who secures metal, at what cost and under whose rules. Ten recent developments across Europe, the US, Australia, Japan and Mexico show how recycling, energy and regulation are becoming the new levers of aluminium competitiveness. They also show where traders, exporters and policymakers may need to adjust. Scrap tug-of-war: the US pull, Europe’s leak and the recycling base at stake The pull starts with price. The US UBC scrap benchmark averaged USD 2,322.89 a tonne in July, USD 2,491.22 in August and USD 2,602.51 in September. That is a 12 per cent climb, and it came after a July that opened at USD 2,464.98 and fell to USD 2,270.76 within two days....
Europe’s 9M 2026 aluminium production jumps to 5.56Mt as smelter restarts gain ground
As the global aluminium supply chain continues to swing between shifts and crunches, how has Europe fared on the production front in the 2026 year-to-date calendar? Substantially well, going by the output figures. Between January and September 2026, the European continent, including Russia, has produced a total of 5.56 million tonnes of primary aluminium, building a significant year-on-year growth chart. The nine-month growth chart Set against the same period of 2025, the first nine months of 2026 show a clear lift in output. From January to September 2026, Europe, including Russia, produced 5.56 million tonnes of primary aluminium, raising the annual growth rate by 5.69 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) over the 5.26 million tonnes produced in 2025. Explore the production, demand and...
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Primary vs recycled AL: Which will dominate as Europe’s automotive sector heads toward yearly 4.2Mt of aluminium demand by 2030?
Europe exports roughly 1 million tonnes of aluminium scrap every year, enough material to potentially reduce the region's primary aluminium imports by nearly 24 per cent if retained and recycled domestically. Yet despite recycled aluminium production already catching up with primary output, the automotive industry continues to include a higher percentage of virgin metal. All at the same time, the region’s automotive industry is entering a period where aluminium procurement strategies are becoming as important as vehicle design itself. Driven by electrification, lightweighting requirements and increasingly stringent sustainability targets, automotive manufacturers are consuming more aluminium than ever before. The transition is, though, far from straightforward. While recycled aluminium...
Aluminium CBAM 2028 downstream expansion: Carbon-risk strategies exporters need for Europe
A plant manager running a highly efficient aluminium extrusion facility in Guangdong or an advanced die-casting hub outside Pune currently operates under a comfortable, yet highly precarious, illusion. They produce complex window frames, automotive structural castings, and precision-machined parts bound for the European market. Currently, they watch the headlines about the European Union Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and assume it is a problem exclusively for the primary smelters. They believe that the raw material giants will absorb the carbon taxes, enabling their finished goods to cross European borders without any scrutiny. This illusion will remain no longer on the 1st of January, 2028. The European Union launched the transitional phase of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism...
Aluminium producers see fiscal gains as Middle East crisis and China’s capacity cap fuel price rally
A supply shock in West Asia is reshaping the global aluminium market. Disruptions to smelters, shipping routes and regional energy supplies have tightened aluminium availability and pushed London Metal Exchange prices to a four-year high, bringing the market closer to the USD 4,000-per-tonne threshold. The disruption comes at a time when the global aluminium market has averaged a supply deficit of less than 0.5 million tonnes over the past five years. Also, the 45 million tonne cap on China's primary aluminium output leaves limited room for the country to increase production and offset any shortfall from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. While consumers grapple with higher costs and supply uncertainty, aluminium producers are benefiting from higher prices. Improved realised...
Europe's 36% BEV surge meets a 42% aluminium consumption share in Q1'26, as China's EV sales slide 21% and the US market shrinks 9%
More than 5.45 million electrified vehicles, including battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and hybrids, were sold across Europe, China and the United States during the first quarter of 2026. While Europe delivered double-digit growth driven by stronger demand in its largest automotive markets, China and the United States recorded declines following changes to incentive programmes. Europe remained the strongest-performing region among the three major markets tracked in the latest EV sales review by PwC. Total EV sales across the European Union, the UK and EFTA countries reached 2.43 million units in Q1 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 18 per cent. BEV sales rose 26 per cent to 724,000 units, PHEV sales increased 32 per cent to 354,000...
Guinea's 150Mt bauxite export cap may create a market deficit of 33Mt - Can the world make up the difference?
For the past few years, Guinea has been the driving force behind the global bauxite trade. Production expanded rapidly, exports climbed to record highs, finding their way to refineries across the world. But after years of pushing output higher, Guinea is now considering a different approach - a possible export cap of around 150 million tonnes. Such a move would mark a major shift for a country that exported nearly 183 million tonnes in 2025. If introduced, the cap could remove almost 33 million tonnes from the market, raising questions about where the industry would find replacement supply. The proposal comes at a time when market conditions have changed significantly. Bauxite prices have fallen, freight costs have risen and concerns over surplus have grown. For Guinea, which holds an...
MONTHLY: China's thermal coal market rallies sharply in May on summer restocking, supply concerns
The rally unfolded in two distinct phases, beginning with an aggressive post-holiday restocking push - driven by El Nino event expectations and low utility inventories - followed by a late-month rebound triggered by safety inspection concerns after a fatal mining accident. May surge begins in April The month opened with a sharp upward trajectory immediately after the Labour Day holiday (May 1-5), Coastal utilities firms, having experienced April's earlier-than-usual heatwave, returned to the spot market with aggressive restocking. Stocks at China's six major coastal power groups had fallen to 12.64 million tonnes by May 5-sufficient for only 16.9 days of burn, near a four-year low. Meanwhile, these utilities were actively preparing for the summer power surge, anticipating prolonged and...
Giga-Casting: The aluminium shot - Alloy science, scrap loop economics, and survival pivot every foundry must execute now
Giga-casting technology has rewritten the economics of automotive aluminium, but the deepest disruption is not in the press hall. It is in the alloy chemistry, the scrap loop, and the macroeconomic positioning of every foundry that supplies the automotive sector. After Part 1 which highlighted aluminium giga-casting revolution in foundries , Part 2 of this series examines the metallurgical science that makes aluminium giga-casting possible, the demand that is about to be created, the closed-loop scrap economy that will redefine secondary metal markets, and what foundries in Germany, China, North America, and India must do to survive the transition. The alloy revolution inside the machine Standard ADC12 cannot be used in giga-casting. Understanding why requires a short look at alloy...
The 730,000t question: Can NALCO and GAC rescue a faltering alumina market?
As the 2026 primary aluminium production navigates through a rocky course, the global alumina production map is being redrawn by the respective geopolitical factors. The data accumulated by the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) depicted drastic drops in the cumulative alumina production volume across the world in April 2026, exhibiting a turbulent market environment. Global alumina production in April 2026 stood at 11.92 million tonnes, which recorded a month-on-month decline of 5.74 per cent from 12.65 million tonnes produced in March 2025. Looking at the figure closely, a year-on-year drop of 2.59 per cent from the production volume of 12.24 million tonnes can be noticed as well. Explore- Most comprehensive and forward-looking industry-focused report — Global Bauxite & Alumina...
Coal vs renewables: The electricity cost battle influencing aluminium production pattern
For more than a century, aluminium producers have lived by a simple rule of securing the cheapest electricity possible, and everything else becomes manageable. The logic was straightforward. Aluminium smelting is one of the most electricity-intensive industrial processes on earth. Every tonne of primary aluminium requires enormous volumes of power to separate aluminium from alumina through the Hall-Héroult process, a technology that has remained fundamentally unchanged since the late nineteenth century. The industry's fortunes have therefore been determined less by geology and more by what happens on power grids. For decades, coal represented the backbone of global aluminium production. It was abundant, dispatchable and, in many regions, cheap enough to support large-scale smelting...
India’s bauxite production seen rising to around 45Mt, yet import dependency likely to stay 20%
India’s bauxite industry is entering a new phase of expansion as domestic production and imports rise simultaneously. The country produced around 25 million tonnes of bauxite in 2025, slightly higher than the 24 million tonnes recorded in 2024. However, despite increasing domestic mining activity, imports also surged sharply to nearly 4.9 million tonnes from 4.1 million tonnes a year earlier, marking year-on-year growth of around 20 per cent. The trend points to a larger structural shift unfolding in India’s aluminium sector. As refinery capacities continue expanding, aluminium producers are increasingly prioritising stable and high-grade bauxite supplies for long-term operations, making imported ore important alongside domestic production. India currently produces around 9.5 million...
GCC aluminium production outlook revised for Q2 2026 after April output shock
As the Middle East conflict continues with full force, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and 9 per cent of aluminium production and supply from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) hangs by the thread of uncertainty. Compounded by the damages caused by the geopolitical unrest, GCC completes one-third of the April-June quarter (Q2) of 2026, with a staggering 26.87 per cent month-on-month production decline. GCC April’26 rings warning bells Aluminium production in the January-March quarter (Q1) of 2026 declined in the range of 540,000 to 570,000 tonnes or about 3.7 per cent, slipping from 1.55 million tonnes in the October-December quarter (Q4) in 2025 to 1.49 million tonnes in Q1 2026. As the GCC stepped into Q2 2026, the April aluminium output saw a drastic dip, with the daily average...
From Asia to South America: How aluminium packaging hubs are affected by the Middle East conflict
The aluminium packaging sector, which consumed around 16.70 million tonnes in 2025 and is projected to approach 17.16 million tonnes in 2026, is now confronting the risk of losing 3-3.5 million tonnes of aluminium supply this year. Packaging industries across Asia, Europe, the United States and Brazil are coming under mounting pressure as escalating tensions in the Middle East threaten to disrupt raw material supply chains. The Middle East produced 6.8 million tonnes of aluminium, accounting for 23 per cent of global output. The UAE remained the region’s largest producer with 2.7 million tonnes, contributing 39 per cent of Middle Eastern output. Bahrain followed with 1.6 million tonnes, or 24 per cent, while Saudi Arabia produced 0.9 million tonnes, representing 13 per cent. Qatar...
A resilient aluminium demand in North America: Scrap and FRP drive momentum after sluggish H1’25
The North American aluminium market has witnessed sharp shifts in trade dynamics, the trend shifting with policy changes and geopolitical developments. In 2025, North America’s aluminium market showed signs of recovery, with demand ending the year on a stable note despite economic and trade-related headwinds. According to the latest Aluminium Situation report by the Aluminium Association, the region recorded a modest 0.8 per cent increase in aluminium demand, backed by stronger manufacturing activity in the second half of the year after a weak start. Charles Johnson, President and CEO of the Aluminum Association, noted, “North American aluminium demand showed resilience in 2025, finishing the year essentially flat despite ongoing economic and trade uncertainty.” Explore the accurate...
Indonesia’s 2036 aluminium target signals a 43Mt bauxite demand challenge – here’s the gap and potential roadmap
Indonesia’s aluminium value chain is expanding rapidly, but a critical imbalance is beginning to emerge beneath the country’s downstream ambitions. While alumina refineries and aluminium smelters are being developed at a fast pace, bauxite mine production has not increased with the same momentum, raising questions over whether Indonesia can secure enough raw material to sustain its long-term aluminium strategy. The country is trying to build a fully integrated aluminium industry - from bauxite mining and alumina refining to aluminium smelting and downstream processing. Backed by export restrictions, foreign investment and large industrial projects, Indonesia is steadily shifting from being a raw mineral exporter to a producer of higher-value aluminium products. However, the success of...
From USD 86 to USD 350: how 6 months reshaped Japan’s aluminium premium to become Asia’s new risk benchmark
Japan’s aluminium premium has climbed from USD 86 per tonne in Q4 2025 to an average USD 351.5 per tonne (ranging between USD 350-353 per tonne) for Q2 2026 shipments, being the steepest quarterly escalation in more than a decade and the highest level since the USD 380-per-tonne settlements recorded in 2015. The recently agreed premium has added more than USD 260 per tonne to Japanese buyers’ physical procurement costs within 6 months, pushing delivered aluminium prices above USD 3,800 per tonne. The scale and speed of the escalation have fundamentally altered the role of the Japan Main Port (MJP) premium, long regarded as Asia’s benchmark for physical aluminium shipments. Historically, the premium largely reflected freight economics, regional demand and availability. In 2026, it has...
Delving deeper: Middle East aluminium crisis rattles domestic and global downstream supply chains
Over the years, the Middle East has been a notable contributor to the global primary aluminium production and trade. Out of the 6-6.5 million tonnes produced in the region, 5-5.5 million tonnes are exported, underlining the lion’s share of the production being shipped overseas. This share accounts for about 9 per cent of the total primary aluminium trade volume in the global market. However, it is interesting to note that the Middle Eastern region, particularly the Gulf Cooperation Council, also contributes to the trade and export of aluminium downstream products. Discover: The Gulf aluminium market risks, China impact, and logistics disruptions shaping pricing and trade in the Gulf Disruption Roadmap Uday Patel, Principal Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, noted, “What this disruption highlights...
Aluminium scrap imports drop 16% y-o-y in Q1CY'26. Will India face tighter supplies in Q2?
India's aluminium scrap imports declined by 16 per cent Y-o-Y to 0.35 tonnes in Q1CY'26, down from 0.42 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. The country remains heavily dependent on imports, with nearly 85 per cent of its aluminium scrap requirement sourced from overseas. As a result, the decline in arrivals has had a direct impact on domestic secondary producers, who rely on a consistent inflow of scrap to sustain production. The downturn has been driven by a combination of volatile LME prices, constrained global supply, and currency pressures, which have elevated landed costs and weakened fresh booking activity. This situation has been further aggravated by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have disrupted key trade flows, increased freight and insurance...
Mozal shutdown exposes Africa’s aluminium production vulnerability as Q1 2026 output falls 6.2%
Africa’s aluminium sector entered 2026 facing a difficult question: how exposed has the continent’s supply chain become to power disruptions and concentrated production risks? The concern intensified after regional aluminium production declined to 381,000 tonnes in Q1 2026, marking a 6.2 per cent drop from 406,000 tonnes in Q4 2025 and a 3.3 per cent Y-o-Y decline compared with 394,000 tonnes in Q1 2025. The decline exposed how dependent Africa’s aluminium chain remains on concentrated production hubs, fragile electricity systems and climate-sensitive infrastructure. Africa’s aluminium output looked stable through 2025 - so what changed? For much of 2025, Africa’s aluminium production remained relatively balanced. Output increased from 394,000 tonnes in Q1 2025 to 407,000 tonnes in Q2,...
