Mozal shutdown exposes Africa’s aluminium production vulnerability as Q1 2026 output falls 6.2%

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Africa’s aluminium sector entered 2026 facing a difficult question: how exposed has the continent’s supply chain become to power disruptions and concentrated production risks? The concern intensified after regional aluminium production declined to 381,000 tonnes in Q1 2026, marking a 6.2 per cent drop from 406,000 tonnes in Q4 2025 and a 3.3 per cent Y-o-Y decline compared with 394,000 tonnes in Q1 2025. The decline exposed how dependent Africa’s aluminium chain remains on concentrated production hubs, fragile electricity systems and climate-sensitive infrastructure.

Africa’s aluminium output looked stable through 2025 - so what changed?

For much of 2025, Africa’s aluminium production remained relatively balanced. Output increased from 394,000 tonnes in Q1 2025 to 407,000 tonnes in Q2, reflecting quarterly growth of around 3.3 per cent. Production then edged slightly higher to 408,000 tonnes in Q3 before easing marginally by nearly 0.5 per cent to 406,000 tonnes in Q4 2025.

Behind that stability, however, production remained heavily concentrated in a few parts of Africa. South Africa and Mozambique continued to account for most of Africa’s aluminium output, making the region increasingly vulnerable whenever disruptions emerged in either market.