36Mt of global alumina capacity remains unutilised, with China and Asian region showing the widest gap

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Global metallurgical alumina production has been expanding in a measured and consistent manner. Output rose from 130.4 million tonnes in 2021 to 133.1 million tonnes in 2022, followed by gradual increases to 134.8 million tonnes in 2023 and 137.8 million tonnes in 2024.

The trajectory strengthened in 2025, with production reaching 144.9 million tonnes, reflecting a sharper 5.2 per cent rise.

However, the underlying dynamics point to a market that is not constrained by supply capacity. With global installed refining capacity at around 181 million tonnes in 2025 and utilisation levels between 85 per cent and 87 per cent, nearly 36 million tonnes of capacity remains unutilised. This indicates that output is being actively managed rather than maximised, with producers responding to demand signals, cost structures, and regional operating conditions.

China remains central to this balance. Installed capacity in 2025 stands at 114.1 million tonnes, while operating capacity is 95.3 million tonnes and actual production is 94.5 million tonnes. The gap of 19.6 million tonnes between installed and actual capacity highlights the extent of built-in flexibility within the system.

Despite this, utilisation remains strong at around 83 per cent, supported by concentrated production in key provinces such as Shandong, Shanxi, and Guangxi, which together account for more than 70 per cent of total capacity.

Across the rest of Asia, excluding China, refining capacity stands at 22.1 million tonnes in 2025, led by India with 12.5 million tonnes, followed by Indonesia at 8.3 million tonnes and Vietnam at 1.3 million tonnes. This distribution suggests that while China dominates current supply, the broader Asian region is gradually building its capacity base.

It also highlights that China and the broader Asian region account for a significant gap between installed capacity and actual utilisation. For a deeper perspective on how this imbalance is expected to evolve, the Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply–Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook provides a detailed long-term view of supply, demand, and pricing trends.