36Mt of global alumina capacity remains unutilised, with China and Asian region showing the widest gap

Global metallurgical alumina production has been expanding in a measured and consistent manner. Output rose from 130.4 million tonnes in 2021 to 133.1 million tonnes in 2022, followed by gradual increases to 134.8 million tonnes in 2023 and 137.8 million tonnes in 2024.

The trajectory strengthened in 2025, with production reaching 144.9 million tonnes, reflecting a sharper 5.2 per cent rise.

However, the underlying dynamics point to a market that is not constrained by supply capacity. With global installed refining capacity at around 181 million tonnes in 2025 and utilisation levels between 85 per cent and 87 per cent, nearly 36 million tonnes of capacity remains unutilised. This indicates that output is being actively managed rather than maximised, with producers responding to demand signals, cost structures, and regional operating conditions.