What happens to aluminium when supply, energy and carbon collide: A market simultaneously facing scarcity, costs and power risks
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The global primary aluminium industry has entered 2026 with a very different market condition from the one that defined the past decade. What was once a story of supply abundance, Chinese expansion and cyclical price swings is now turning into one of scarcity, geopolitical fragmentation and carbon-driven trade barriers.
At the same time, emerging supply hubs such as Indonesia and Guinea are grappling with resource protection, infrastructure tailbacks and rising power needs, while supply shocks in Mozambique, Iceland and the downstream sector are constraining the market further.
China’s 45 million tonne ceiling has become the market’s hard limit
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