Guinea
Power crisis bites Guinea’s aluminium ambitions; 75kt supply to wait until after 2030
Guinea’s ambition to move beyond bauxite exports into alumina refining and aluminium smelting is running into a major electricity constraint. Producing about 1,000 MW of power at present, it needs another estimated 5,000–10,000 MW for industrialisation. While new alumina refineries could expand intermediate supply, the shortage of reliable electricity is likely to delay additional aluminium production capacity beyond 2030. The challenge emerges as aluminium traded at USD 3,008.5 per tonne, down 8.77 per cent over the month but up 8.43 per cent year on year. Guinea mined an estimated 150 million tonnes of bauxite in 2025, accounting for 34 per cent of global output of 440 million tonnes. Yet it produced only 360,000 tonnes of alumina, or 0.24 per cent of worldwide production of 150 million...
AL Circle Analysis: Guinea’s 150Mt bauxite cap, China’s import swings, US tariffs draw aluminium Q4’26
The global aluminium supply chain is facing a series of changes that extend from bauxite mines and alumina refineries to smelters, regional premiums and finished-metal trade. In 2026, the market’s direction is being shaped not only by production volumes but also by freight costs, export restrictions, shifting Chinese demand and tariffs. Developments across Guinea, Australia, China, Europe and North America point to a market where access to supply is increasingly as important as the availability of raw materials. Bauxite supply: Guinea’s cap meets a well-stocked China, but is it stable? Guinea remains central to the seaborne bauxite market, with its shipment connections to China demonstrating the importance of reliable logistics. A new sea-rail route has enabled a Guinea bauxite shipment...
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15th International Bauxite, Alumina & Aluminium Conference & Exhibition - IBAAS–VFMSTA 2026
ICSOBA 2026 - 44th International Conference and Exhibition
SMM AICE 2026 Southeast Asia Aluminum Conference
15th International Bauxite, Alumina & Aluminium Conference & Exhibition - IBAAS–VFMSTA 2026
ICSOBA 2026 - 44th International Conference and Exhibition
SMM AICE 2026 Southeast Asia Aluminum Conference
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A report that reveals where the aluminium casting industry is heading and how businesses can act.
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AL Circle Analysis: Guinea’s 150Mt bauxite cap, China’s import swings, US tariffs draw aluminium Q4’26
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News
Guinea targets 8Mt of alumina capacity by 2030: Can its power grid deliver 5k–10k MW?
After introducing its annual bauxite export cap at 150 million tonnes in June 2026 , Guinea is now accelerating its alumina refining ambitions, with three refineries under construction and a target of five operating by 2030. However, the country’s electricity generation of around 1,000 MW falls well short of the estimated 5,000–10,000 MW needed to support industrialisation, putting energy infrastructure at the centre of its bauxite-to-alumina strategy. Daouda Diakite, Senior Adviser to Guinea’s Minister of Mines and Geology, Bouna Sylla, outlined the plans at African Mining Week in Cape Town. The government aims to establish annual alumina production capacity of approximately 7 million to 8 million tonnes, with aluminium smelters envisioned as a subsequent step. To know the future market...
Bauxite flows face a Q4 slowdown as Guinea’s 150Mt export cap tightens supply
Global bauxite flows are expected to weaken in the fourth quarter of 2026 as China’s front-loading eases and Guinea’s export restrictions begin to constrain shipments . Despite a 2.8 per cent year-on-year rise in global flows in September, softer import requirements in India and the Arabian Gulf could limit demand, leaving China as the principal destination for seaborne bauxite but with little room for further growth. September flows hint at diverging regional trends Global bauxite flows reached 20.4 million tonnes in September 2026, up 2.8 per cent year-on-year, backed by higher shipments from Guinea. Month-on-month flows declined, in line with seasonal wet-weather conditions that typically restrict port movements. Guinea’s shipments to the market were more than 20 per cent higher than...
WEEKLY: Guinea bauxite prices under pressure as freight slide revives supply
China's domestic bauxite prices held steady last week. Supply tightness at China's inland mines persisted, prompting some traders to blend and sell ores sourced from Turkey and Pakistan. Meanwhile, the sharp decline in ocean freight rates restored arbitrage margins for bauxite from non-mainstream origins; imports from origins compatible with domestic bauxite blending are likely to rise. In terms of imported bauxite, freight rates showed no sign of bottoming out. Rates on the Baltic Exchange C3 route fell to around US USD 30 per tonne, with November-loading vessel offers quoted near US USD 29 per tonne. The sustained freight drop revived shipment plans for small and mid-sized Guinean miners, pointing to potential supply ramp-up for Guinean bauxite. Guinean ore offers increased markedly...
Guinean bauxite prices face headwinds as C3 freight retreats; supply restart threshold within reach
Since the start of China's National Day holiday, freight rates on the Baltic C3 route have retreated sharply, falling to the US USD 32-33 per tonne range as of October 12, 2026. The sustained decline in freight costs has markedly shifted market sentiment. Earlier, ahead of the holiday, following the release of a long-term contract quote by a major Guinean miner, traders quickly lifted their offers in tandem. According to Mysteel's survey, Guinean bauxite with a standard 45 per 3 specification saw offers climb to as high as US USD 77 per dry metric tonne before the break, but these have since eased back in line with falling freight rates, with the latest quotes at around US USD 72.5-73 per dry metric tonne, no deals have been concluded at these levels so far. Based on Mysteel's...
WEEKLY: Bauxite prices capped by high refinery stocks
During China's National Day holiday (October 2-8, 2026), domestic bauxite supply showed no major swings, with persistent bottlenecks continuing to cap output. Routine environmental inspections across several inland regions kept weighing on domestic ore production. Offsetting this tightness, however, alumina refineries are holding inventories at elevated levels, while relatively ample imported ore volumes are capping domestic bauxite prices. Mysteel anticipates that domestic ore prices will struggle to register any meaningful upside in the near term. In the imported ore segment, a large Guinean miner quoted relatively high ahead of the holiday, which met with limited acceptance from alumina refineries. Only a small number of refineries confirmed term deals and took deliveries, resulting in...
Guinea bauxite shipment reaches China through new sea-rail route
A shipment of 168,000 tonnes of bauxite from Guinea has arrived at Fangchenggang Port in Guangxi, southern China. The first batch of cargo was transported by rail to Wanzhou in Chongqing on October 3, supplying raw materials to a mineral production base in the city. The new route connects overseas bauxite supplies with inland industries through Beibu Gulf Port. According to Beibu Gulf Port Group, it offers a direct sea-rail transport link from the port to Chongqing. The route cuts transit time by about 25 days compared with the traditional river-sea route via the Yangtze River. It is expected to improve the movement of bulk raw materials to industrial businesses in southwest China. Explore the production, demand and consumption forecasts of bauxite and alumina in our report: " Global...
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