Delving deeper: Middle East aluminium crisis rattles domestic and global downstream supply chains

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Over the years, the Middle East has been a notable contributor to the global primary aluminium production and trade. Out of the 6-6.5 million tonnes produced in the region, 5-5.5 million tonnes are exported, underlining the lion’s share of the production being shipped overseas. This share accounts for about 9 per cent of the total primary aluminium trade volume in the global market. However, it is interesting to note that the Middle Eastern region, particularly the Gulf Cooperation Council, also contributes to the trade and export of aluminium downstream products.

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Uday Patel, Principal Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, noted, “What this disruption highlights are how concentrated and fragile aluminium supply chains have become.”

Ever since the onset of geopolitical tensions stemming from the Middle East conflict among Iran, Israel and the United States, followed by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz trade corridor, the point made abundantly clear is the world’s dependence on the region for a balanced market for primary aluminium. “With so much production and export infrastructure tied to a single trade route, even short-term disruptions can have outsized and immediate global consequences,” Patel mentioned.

However, apart from the primary aluminium production gaps, another worrying situation arises in the supply chain, as the Middle East also ships a considerable volume of aluminium downstream products to the global market. As import routes for sourcing raw material remain blocked, the downstream sector faces grave jeopardy.

The GCC chart of aluminium downstream production and export

As of 2025, the GCC countries, barring Kuwait, have exported about 767,044.83 tonnes of aluminium downstream products overseas. The top buyers with the approximate purchase volumes of GCC-produced aluminium downstream products are: