Middle East Conflict
Ex-China operating capacity rises, aluminium prices continue to consolidate at highs
SHFE aluminium closed at RMB 24,245 per tonne, edging up 0.02 per cent. The price stood above the MA10 (24,236) but was capped by the MA5 (24,386), still well above the MA30 (24,084) and MA60 (23,729.92). The medium-term bullish structure remained intact, while short-term moving average resistance was evident. On the MACD indicator, DIF stood at 102.44 and DEA at 125.85, with the high-level death cross persisting. The green bar narrowed to -46.80 (previous day -50.36), indicating slightly weakening bearish momentum. Trading volume shrank to 52,300 lots, reflecting a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The suggested core trading range for SHFE aluminium is 24,000-24,600. LME aluminium closed at USD 3,266 per tonne, up 0.21 per cent. The price was slightly below the MA5 (3,275.6)...
US Fed rate hike lands, accelerated aluminium ingot destocking expected to support aluminium prices
Macro perspective: Outside China, the US Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75per cent-4.00per cent as expected, the first hike since July 2023, with a unanimous FOMC vote. The dot plot showed one more possible rate hike in 2026, extending the period of high interest rates. As a result, US Treasuries saw heavy selling, the US dollar and real yields rose, directly weighing on the valuation of dollar-denominated nonferrous metals. Geopolitically, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz persisted, with Iran claiming the strait was under its "smart control," and a regional shipping security meeting originally scheduled in Oman was forced to be postponed, raising energy transport and risk premiums. Overall, macro sentiment was mixed. Fundamentals: Supply side, this week, China's weekly...
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15th International Bauxite, Alumina & Aluminium Conference & Exhibition - IBAAS–VFMSTA 2026
ALUMINIUM Arabia 2026
ICSOBA 2026 - 44th International Conference and Exhibition
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A report that reveals where the aluminium casting industry is heading and how businesses can act.
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A report that reveals where the aluminium casting industry is heading and how businesses can act.
LEARN MOREGerman downstream aluminium exports fall 13% in H1 2026 but US enters top 5 with 228.1% import surge
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Alba runs at 1.3 mtpa as Bahrain smelter navigates Middle East disruptions
Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) is currently producing aluminium at an annualised rate of around 1.3 million tonnes, with the smelter operating at roughly 80 per cent of its pre-Iran war capacity, according to CEO Ali Al Baqali. Alba had a pre-war capacity of around 1.6 million tonnes per year, but production was disrupted after the outbreak of the war and restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz affected exports. The smelter was also hit by an Iranian attack in late March. The Bahrain-based producer is now operating Lines 4, 5 and 6, together representing annualised aluminium production of approximately 1.3 million tonnes, Al Baqali told Reuters on the sidelines of the Fastmarkets Aluminium Conference in Budapest on September 16. Al Baqali described the damage from the Iranian strike as minor...
Vedanta shares hit 52-week low at ₹419.50 as crude oil prices surge
Vedanta’s share price fell in early trading on the NSE as the Indian stock market declined and rising crude oil prices increased concerns about higher costs for metal companies. The stock opened at INR 431.25 (USD 4.50), down from its previous close, and fell to an intraday low of INR 419.50 (USD 4.37), marking a new 52-week low. Market experts attributed the decline mainly to weak global and domestic market sentiment and the sharp rise in crude oil prices. Higher energy and input costs can put pressure on the margins of mining and metals companies. Rising base metal prices in international markets, followed by some profit-booking, also contributed to the stock's movement. Crude oil prices add to cost concerns Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, said rising crude oil prices were...
US Treasury yields rise, pressuring aluminium prices to consolidate at highs amid mixed signals
Futures: The most-traded SHFE aluminium 2610 contract closed at RMB 23,990 per tonne, down RMB 15 from yesterday's settlement price, a decline of 0.06 per cent. It opened at RMB 23,995 per tonne during the day and fluctuated within a range of RMB 23,950-24,055 per tonne. Prices traded below the MA5 (24,262.00), MA10 (24,295.00), and MA30 (24,048.83), but above the MA60 (23,604.42). The short-term upward structure continued to face resistance, with a narrow sideways consolidation pattern emerging, and the short-term moving averages above formed key pressure. The MACD indicator's DIF (127.6789) was below the DEA (155.8754), and the MACD green bar stood at -56.3931, indicating that bullish momentum continued to weaken. The core trading range for SHFE aluminium is suggested at RMB...
H1’26 LME aluminium stocks dip 31.82%: Russian sanctions & Gulf crisis pack a double blow
As we reflect on the Middle East crisis that commenced on February 28, 2026, and stretched into the second half of the year, it brings to mind the dramatic rise and fall of the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium price that reached four-year highs before cooling down. The skyrocketing prices result from the declining inventory levels of the LME aluminium stocks, thereby reporting a month-on-month decline from 498,670 tonnes in January to 320,314 tonnes in June. LME H1 inventory trend: 2026 vs 2025 vs 2024 How has the LME aluminium inventory scenario fared across the January-June period? Here is the six-month cumulative year-on-year comparison among 2026, 2025 and 2024: H1 2026 – 2.48 million tonnes, down 12.88 per cent Y-o-Y H1 2025 – 2.85 million tonnes, down 31.82 per cent Y-o-Y H1...
Mercuria, Glencore explore Venalum aluminium smelter deal as Venezuela eyes production revival
Venezuela’s biggest aluminium smelter, Venalum, could be heading for a fresh start as Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. and Glencore Plc explore a potential deal that could bring new investment and operating expertise to the facility that has spent years producing only a fraction of its original capacity. The talks come as Venezuela seeks to rebuild an industrial sector weakened by economic turmoil, power shortages and years of underinvestment. Discussions with the Venezuelan government have included the possibility of taking over operations at the Venalum smelter and securing access to the aluminium it produces, according to Bloomberg News. Mercuria is working with private mining investment firm Heeney Capital on the potential transaction. The two companies have previously worked together on...
China continues destocking, coupled with recovering peak-season demand; aluminium prices are expected to consolidate at highs with an upward bias next week
1. Macro perspective The US-Iran conflict escalated sharply. On September 9, Iran's Revolutionary Guard struck multiple oil tankers and merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, causing a significant drop in strait traffic. Brent crude broke through USD 100 per bbl, closing at USD 101.21, while WTI settled at USD 96.05, sharply lifting energy costs for overseas smelting. Fed Chairman Walsh's debut at the Jackson Hole symposium signalled a hawkish stance, and with August nonfarm payrolls beating expectations, CME showed the probability of a 25bp rate hike in September rising to around 60 per cent. US Treasury yields surged, and the US dollar index hit a 13-month high, pressuring base metals. Next week, attention turns to the US CPI on September 11 and the FOMC meeting on September 15-16....
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