Middle East Conflict
Hormuz crude flows recover, but aluminium, LNG and fertiliser face a slower return to normal
Middle East crude exports ended September at roughly their pre-conflict levels and exceeded them on several days, according to Reuters. However, the recovery is far less complete for other Gulf commodities. Diesel and gasoline shipments were running at 58 per cent of pre-conflict volumes, while LNG, fertiliser, aluminium and helium were recovering more slowly. The uneven rebound highlights why crude flows alone do not provide a complete picture of trade through the Strait of Hormuz. For commodities with lower margins, limited routing options or specialised infrastructure requirements, the cost of moving cargoes and repairing damaged facilities continues to weigh on supply. Crude can absorb the cost of moving through Hormuz Supertanker rates for voyages from the Middle East to China...
Press Metal profit jumps 51% as Middle East aluminium curtailments lift the premiums
Southeast Asia’s largest integrated aluminium producer extended its record earnings run as higher aluminium prices, regional premiums and Middle East supply disruptions supported performance. Press Metal Aluminium Holdings Bhd has extended its record earnings streak into 2026, with the Southeast Asian aluminium producer posting a 51 per cent year-on-year increase in net profit to MYR 1.43 billion (USD 350.78 million) in 1HFY2026. The company had already delivered back-to-back record profits in FY2024 and FY2025, supported by higher aluminium prices, increased sales volumes and a more favourable cost environment. Its latest performance comes as the global aluminium market remains tight, with RHB Research expecting a deficit of around 900,000 to one million tonnes in 2026. Press Metal’s...
Grow with
AL Circle
Price
→Events
15th International Bauxite, Alumina & Aluminium Conference & Exhibition - IBAAS–VFMSTA 2026
ALUMINIUM Arabia 2026
ICSOBA 2026 - 44th International Conference and Exhibition
15th International Bauxite, Alumina & Aluminium Conference & Exhibition - IBAAS–VFMSTA 2026
ALUMINIUM Arabia 2026
ICSOBA 2026 - 44th International Conference and Exhibition
Business Cards
A report that reveals where the aluminium casting industry is heading and how businesses can act.
LEARN MORE
A report that reveals where the aluminium casting industry is heading and how businesses can act.
LEARN MOREWho’s holding up Germany’s aluminium game? Meet EGA, Hydro and Constellium
Germany’s aluminium FRP consumption reaches 1.68 Mt as 2025 trade surplus tops $3.1 billion
AL Circle Analysis: Europe’s aluminium scrap curbs, India’s risk and US’s supply opportunity
German downstream aluminium exports fall 13% in H1 2026 but US enters top 5 with 228.1% import surge
News
Aluminium gains 1.1% as oil surge drives New Zealand commodity prices
The ANZ World Commodity Price Index rose 0.6 per cent month on month and 1.0 per cent year on year, with prices increasing across most categories. The rise was largely driven by higher energy prices, while a weaker New Zealand dollar pushed the index in local-currency terms up 2.8 per cent. Oil surge lifts aluminium prices along with milk powder Aluminium benefited from supply disruption linked to the Middle East conflict. Prices rose 1.1 per cent during September and are around 23 per cent higher year on year, with production and exports in the region remaining disrupted. Dairy prices increased 1.0 per cent in September, led by skim milk powder. Prices for the product jumped 9.2 per cent month on month and are now 41.1 per cent higher than a year earlier. ANZ said milk powder prices are...
Gulf production recovery falters, China steps up as OCBC raises aluminium forecast to $3,150
OCBC has raised its end-2026 aluminium price forecast to about USD 3,150 per tonne from USD 3,050, citing a slower-than-expected recovery in Gulf production, although strong Chinese output is expected to continue offsetting supply disruptions. Three-month aluminium on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell 0.9 per cent month-on-month in September to USD 3,214 per tonne as of September 29, remaining 2 per cent above OCBC’s third-quarter forecast of USD 3,150. The cash-to-three-month spread was broadly unchanged at a USD 7.40-per-tonne contango, compared with USD 7.60 at the end of August. The spread suggests limited urgency for immediate metal supply despite a continued decline in global exchange inventories. Gulf aluminium recovery loses momentum OCBC said aluminium production across the...
Aluminium rises to $3.63 as Gulf supply disruptions tighten global market
Aluminium prices gained 0.43 per cent as reduced Gulf production and low exchange inventories supported the market, while Chinese output and capacity restarts could limit further gains. Aluminium prices settled 0.43 per cent higher at INR 348.65 (USD 3.63) as tight physical supply conditions supported the market. Disruptions linked to the US-Iran tensions have affected aluminium availability from the Gulf region, with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) production falling 44 per cent year-on-year in July. Low exchange inventories have added to supply concerns. London Metal Exchange (LME) stocks remained near a 36-year low, while inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) declined 4.7 per cent from the previous week. However, expectations of improving supply have limited the market’s...
Ex-China operating capacity rises, aluminium prices continue to consolidate at highs
SHFE aluminium closed at RMB 24,245 per tonne, edging up 0.02 per cent. The price stood above the MA10 (24,236) but was capped by the MA5 (24,386), still well above the MA30 (24,084) and MA60 (23,729.92). The medium-term bullish structure remained intact, while short-term moving average resistance was evident. On the MACD indicator, DIF stood at 102.44 and DEA at 125.85, with the high-level death cross persisting. The green bar narrowed to -46.80 (previous day -50.36), indicating slightly weakening bearish momentum. Trading volume shrank to 52,300 lots, reflecting a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The suggested core trading range for SHFE aluminium is 24,000-24,600. LME aluminium closed at USD 3,266 per tonne, up 0.21 per cent. The price was slightly below the MA5 (3,275.6)...
US Fed rate hike lands, accelerated aluminium ingot destocking expected to support aluminium prices
Macro perspective: Outside China, the US Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75per cent-4.00per cent as expected, the first hike since July 2023, with a unanimous FOMC vote. The dot plot showed one more possible rate hike in 2026, extending the period of high interest rates. As a result, US Treasuries saw heavy selling, the US dollar and real yields rose, directly weighing on the valuation of dollar-denominated nonferrous metals. Geopolitically, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz persisted, with Iran claiming the strait was under its "smart control," and a regional shipping security meeting originally scheduled in Oman was forced to be postponed, raising energy transport and risk premiums. Overall, macro sentiment was mixed. Fundamentals: Supply side, this week, China's weekly...
Alba runs at 1.3 mtpa as Bahrain smelter navigates Middle East disruptions
Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) is currently producing aluminium at an annualised rate of around 1.3 million tonnes, with the smelter operating at roughly 80 per cent of its pre-Iran war capacity, according to CEO Ali Al Baqali. Alba had a pre-war capacity of around 1.6 million tonnes per year, but production was disrupted after the outbreak of the war and restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz affected exports. The smelter was also hit by an Iranian attack in late March. The Bahrain-based producer is now operating Lines 4, 5 and 6, together representing annualised aluminium production of approximately 1.3 million tonnes, Al Baqali told Reuters on the sidelines of the Fastmarkets Aluminium Conference in Budapest on September 16. Al Baqali described the damage from the Iranian strike as minor...
_1788170554.903_md.webp)
Blog
LATEST POSTS
Turn marketplace visibility into more relevant buyer enquiries.
View Priority Plans
Turn marketplace visibility into more relevant buyer enquiries.
View Priority Plans
