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Middle East Conflict

Middle East conflict pushes up risk premium, aluminium ingot destocking supports aluminium price
Primary AL
Macro perspective The US-Iran situation escalated rapidly, as the US reinstated comprehensive oil sanctions on Iran, terminated the relevant memorandum of understanding, and launched strikes on over a hundred Iranian military facilities. Iran immediately retaliated, causing a sharp rise in geopolitical risk premiums in the Middle East. Fundamentals Markets outside China, the resumption of aluminium production and the release of new capacity continued overseas, gradually materialising global ...
China aluminium market H1 2026 review and H2 outlook
Primary AL
In H1 2026, SHFE aluminium prices followed a "higher earlier, lower later" trajectory. In Q1, macro expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts intertwined with Middle East geopolitical conflicts, driving aluminium prices to surge to historical highs. Entering Q2, as the US strong-dollar policy stance was confirmed, Middle East supply disruptions marginally eased, and domestic downstream consumption in China entered the off-season, the aluminium price centre continued to shift lower. Looking a ...

Primary AL
When SHFE aluminium traded in a wide range with the average price in the first half of 2026 edging higher year-on-year, the market performance was weaker relative to LME. On the fundamentals, domestic aluminium supply rose 3 per cent year-on-year, while weak domestic demand was partially offset by a 7.4 per cent increase in aluminium extrusions exports, resulting in a surplus of approximately 514,000 tonnes for the first half. Looking ahead to the second half, demand is expected to recover as ...
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