AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
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UK aluminium squeezed by weak production, soaring demand, and high energy costs – What's the way forward? What UK Budget indicates?
The United Kingdom’s aluminium industry has two options ahead to survive - one is by remaining reliant on imported aluminium cast, rolled, extruded, or forged semi-fabricated products with little or no control over embedded carbon, and the other is by developing a domestic recycling-based supply chain aligned with circular economy principles and national net zero goals. Because over the years, almost all the UK’s primary aluminium smelters have shut their operations due to unbearable energy costs. The only remaining smelter is the one owned by Alvanche in Lochaber, capable of producing a small fraction (50,000 tonnes per year) of the UK’s growing aluminium need. UK aluminium demand vs production According to 2024 analysis, aluminium consumption in the UK domestic market was about 296,000...
WEEKLY: China's alumina stocks rise above 5 million tonnes
The result marked a 1.3 per cent rise from the prior week and a 33.5 per cent jump from a year ago, setting a fresh record since the survey began in January 2022, Mysteel Global noted. The persistent inventory build-up was mainly driven by raw material replenishment by domestic primary aluminium smelters. In anticipation of potential transportation disruptions around the Chinese New Year holiday starting in mid-February 2026, some smelters showed a stronger intention to build up their alumina stocks, while several alumina producers and traders accelerated their deliveries of the feed material to ease inventory pressure. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with 50+ reports across the value chain As a result, stockpiles at smelters and at rail yards or in transit both...
Alumina output nears the 143.3MT 2025 target, with a 2.58% rise expected in 2026
The story of alumina production in 2025 played out much the way analysts had expected, even if the year didn’t unfold in a straight line. Smelter-grade alumina production was projected at about 143.3 million tonnes, as per AL Circle report and by October the International Aluminium Institute had already recorded 119 million tonnes alumina. Production fluctuated from month to month, creating an irregular trajectory: alumina output began 2025 at 12.23 Mt in January, fell 9.45 per cent in February to 11.08 million tonnes, then rebounded 8.6 per cent in March to 12.03 million tonnes before slipping 4.76 per cent in April to 11.46 million tonnes. The middle of the year was steadier — May edged up 2.68 per cent to 11.76 million tonnes, June dipped 0.38 per cent to 11.72 million tonnes, and July...
Constellium warns EU: Eradicate CBAM or the aluminium industry fades away, European companies agree
Constellium vocalises the warning that the European Union (EU) should immediately eradicate the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Its claim that the EU is posing a risk with the implementation of CBAM in January 2026, which is likely to ensure the slow demise of the European aluminium industry, is resonated by other aluminium product makers. Image for representational purpose only Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with 50+ reports across the value chain Constellium criticises CBAM CBAM is intended to impose tax and levy on a selective set of imported goods including primary and secondary aluminium, to ensure they pay a similar carbon cost as those who produce it within the EU. Those who fail to produce documents of low-carbon emission will be subject to...
EV anticipation for ’26: Who’s accelerating and who’s hitting the brake?
The farewell of 2025 and the fast-approaching 2026 drive home with it the anticipation for a global revolution of electric vehicles (EVs). The most influential manufacturers gear up for the revving launch of the next-gen, advanced, hi-tech, battery-electric models, while circumstantial roadblocks lead to the withdrawal of several EV names from the ’26 launch plan. Image for representational purpose only Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with 50+ reports across the value chain Dropping out of the race Although these models showcased promising characteristics for a sunny joyride, the market circumstances or lack of federal and state incentives put a raincheck on the debut dates. Big brands like Nissan, Mercedes, Polestar, Porsche and Maserati hit the brakes and stay...
Here’s why Maxion is deepening its footprint in Argentina despite Brazil’s lead
Iochpe-Maxion, a global manufacturer of automotive wheels and structural components, through its subsidiary Maxion Wheels, announced that it was taking strategic measures to strengthen its light vehicle aluminium wheel business in South America. It had redeployed existing global production assets to Brazil and has acquired a 50.1 per cent stake in Polimetal, a major aluminium wheel manufacturer in Argentina, which has been successfully completed. Now, the question arises: when the firm was focusing on Brazil, why did it acquire an Argentina-based company? The acquisition of Polimetal by Iochpe-Maxion has been completed by Marval, who acted as the legal counsel for the Group, aiding in structuring and implementing the agreement of the acquisition at 50.1 per cent stake. Glance at...
Ivanpah set to shut - What’s America’s 25-year renewable energy plan?
The United States is pushing for cleaner, greener energy across all sectors — including aluminium — using federal funding, new technology and expanded recycling to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 while still meeting rising demand. The industry’s main book for decarbonisation comes from the Aluminum Association’s North American aluminium decarbonisation roadmap, which pictures a world where emissions would drop by 92 per cent from 2021 levels to 2050, even as output grows 78 per cent. A cleaner grid is supposed to do 36 per cent of the work. Turning off natural-gas furnaces and shifting them to electrification, green hydrogen and carbon-capture tools handle another slice. Inert-anode smelting brings in 15 per cent, while cleaning up alumina refining adds 17 per cent more. The federal...
What will be the global bauxite outlook for 2026 after BMI cuts its 2025 forecast?
Aluminium isn’t just another industrial staple, but the Earth’s most abundant metallic element, quietly making up nearly 8 per cent of the planet’s crust. And almost all of it starts with bauxite: a humble, rust-tinged ore rich in the aluminium minerals gibbsite, boehmite and diaspore. Look closely at the map, and a pattern emerges — the world’s richest bauxite belts lie in today’s tropics or regions shaped by tropical geology, from Guinea and Australia to Vietnam, Brazil and Jamaica. The scale is staggering. The US Geological Survey estimates that, as of 2024, the world is sitting on nearly 29 billion tonnes of known bauxite reserves. Source: https://www.alcircle.com/specialreport/2439/global-aluminium-industry-outlook-2025 Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with...
CONF: China's aluminium producers scrambling to expand overseas capacity
In recent years, Chinese aluminium companies have shown growing interest in expanding their footprint overseas, with several companies already operating plants, or planning to invest, in resource-rich countries such as Indonesia, Guinea, and Kazakhstan, Mo noted. This "going global" strategy is primarily driven by aluminium companies' demand to get access to abundant raw materials such as bauxite. Additionally, some foreign governments have introduced policies requiring local processing of mineral resources rather than the direct export of raw ores, prompting Chinese firms to invest in overseas alumina refineries. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with 50+ reports across the value chain Notably, Chinese firms have already established approximately 7.65 million tonnes...
GCC aluminium output down 2.9% in first ten months as the region shifts to new bauxite suppliers post-Guinea ban
Across the Gulf, the primary aluminium and alumina sector has been moving at a noticeably different pace this year. Aluminium output across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has been edging lower through 2025, a trend that becomes clear once the latest numbers are lined up against last year’s. In the first ten months, smelters produced 5,128 thousand tonnes, compared with 5,282 thousand tonnes in the same period of 2024 — roughly a 2.9 per cent drop. Many operators sensed the shift even before the figures confirmed it, as daily output that once hovered around 17.2–17.5 thousand tonnes last year has settled closer to 16.7–17.0 thousand tonnes in 2025. Quarterly numbers confirm it. Q1 settled at 1.52 million tonnes compared with 1.58 million tonnes last year same period, and the daily...
How far is Europe from securing its rare earth future?
China, which has been the long-standing dominator of rare earths and its supply chain, imposed strict restrictions on rare earth exports on October 8. Many dependents on China’s rare earth, including the US and the EU, faced impacts, but later on, managed to strike a year-long truce. Beside China, the EU also entered into rare earth supply agreements with Canada, Namibia, Chile and others. Meanwhile, the bloc is also targeting to become self-reliant with 10 per cent extraction, 40 per cent processing and 15 per cent recycling. We are here to analyse if self reliance with no trace of domestic rare earth mining would be feasible for Europe. EU’s imports of rare earth from China As per the report of Statista, the EU imports nearly half of its rare earth from China, followed by Russia, which...
Henan unveils action plan for red mud utilisation
Henan province, a major aluminium and alumina producing hub in Central China, is stepping up efforts in systematically tackling the difficulties in the comprehensive utilisation of solid waste from alumina production in order to foster sustainable development for its alumina industry, Mysteel has learned. On November 27, six provincial departments of Henan, including the Department of Industry and Information Technology, jointly rolled out an action plan for the comprehensive utilisation of red mud, a highly alkaline, iron oxide-rich solid waste generated during the refining of bauxite ore into alumina. As China's fourth-largest alumina production region, Henan is home to seven alumina producers, with their combined alumina capacity accounting for 12.9 per cent of the national total....
America’s FRP market Part 2: Production falls behind demand, leaving 4.7MT deficit amid tariff shifts and new capacity plans
Part 1 showed how North and South America have become major drivers of global FRP consumption growth. But behind that surge lies a challenge the region can’t ignore — the Americas simply don’t produce enough flat-rolled aluminium to match this accelerating demand. North America manufactures only around 2.3–2.35 million tonnes a year. Novelis supplies the biggest share — 1.2 million tonnes in 2023, 1.25 million tonnes in 2024 and around 1.3 million tonnes expected in 2025. Alcoa adds 450–500 thousand tonnes from its Tennessee and Iowa mills; Constellium brings about 350 thousand tonnes from Georgia and Kentucky; Norsk Hydro contributes roughly 200 thousand tonnes. South America adds another 450–500 thousand tonnes, almost entirely from Novelis’ rolling operations in Brazil. The region...
WEEKLY: China's thermal coal market softens on bloated inventories
As of November 28, Mysteel's assessment for the benchmark 5,500 kcal per kg thermal coal at China's northern ports reached RMB 821per tonne (USD 116.8per tonne), down RMB 9per tonne from a week ago. The 5,000 kcal per kg and 4,500 kcal per kg NAR grades reached RMB 721per tonne and RMB 625per tonne, down RMB 16per tonne and RMB 13per tonne, respectively. All prices are on a FOB basis with 13per cent VAT included. Last week, coal inventories continued to build at northern transfer ports, raising concerns that authorities will mandate traders to accelerate cargo offloading to release room for new arrivals. In fact, some ports have required traders to secure buyer contracts before approving new train transport schedules. As of Friday, the eight northern ports that Mysteel surveys had 25.29...
America’s FRP market Part 1: Consumption to grow 15.29% CAGR through 2030 amid production uncertainty
Flat-rolled aluminium products (FRP), excluding aluminium foil, are no longer just another industrial material — they’ve become part of the machinery that keeps modern life running. They are everywhere: in electric cars, in the hardware behind renewable-energy systems, packaging, etc. As industries chase lighter, recyclable and more energy-efficient solutions, FRP has slipped into a central role almost by default. What’s striking is how quickly demand has climbed. With sustainability rules tightening and manufacturing in emerging economies expanding at full tilt, consumption has been rising at a pace rarely seen in metals. Global FRP demand is on track to jump from 20.33 million tonnes in 2020 to 40.30 million tonnes by 2030, and further rise by 6.82 per cent CAGR through 2032, which...
One month to CBAM: what’s in, what’s out, who pays, and how the aluminium industry must prepare
When the European Union rolled out its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2023, a few energy-intensive industries felt the tremors more. Aluminium was one of them, while the rest were iron and steel, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen, and electricity industries. For them, CBAM appeared not just as another climate regulation but as a structural shift in its basic operational values. Apparently, CBAM is a bespoke tariff policy designed to target imported goods with high carbon emissions. But its underlying goal is also to introduce a level playing field in the domestic market by imposing the same carbon costs on importers that indigenous manufacturers pay under the ETS (Emissions Trading System). Among all the sectors caught in the net, aluminium and iron/steel are poised for the most...
India & 2050 aluminium prospect: demand is certain, India’s advantage isn’t
By mid-century, aluminium is set to become one of the defining industrial commodities of the energy transition. Long-range modelling (like Marshall’s Equilibrium Model) points in the same direction, i.e., global aluminium demand could grow by around 80 per cent by 2050 compared with 2020. According to World Economic Forum reports, within that aggregate picture, one recent macro-model of primary aluminium fundamentals suggests that demand for primary metal alone could approach 110 million tonnes by 2050, even as a rising share of total use is met by recycled metal. Image for representational purpose only Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with 50+ reports across the value chain Those projections are not abstract for India. The country is already the world’s...
WEEKLY: China's alumina prices soften further, inventories hit new high
Mysteel assessed the national average spot price for metallurgical-grade alumina with purity above 98.6 per cent at RMB 2,851 per tonne (USD 403 per tonne) on November 27, marking a marginal 0.3 per cent drop from a week earlier. During the same week, alumina stocks reached another all-time high. According to Mysteel's latest survey, as of November 27, total alumina inventories across ten major Chinese ports, 44 alumina producers, 89 primary aluminium smelters, and rail yards or in transit had increased for the 26th consecutive week to 4.94 million tonnes, rising by 1.2 per cent on week and renewing the highest level since the survey began in January 2022. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with 50+ reports across the value chain Contributing most to the continued...
