The story of alumina production in 2025 played out much the way analysts had expected, even if the year didn’t unfold in a straight line. Smelter-grade alumina production was projected at about 143.3 million tonnes, as per AL Circle report and by October the International Aluminium Institute had already recorded 119 million tonnes alumina.
Production fluctuated from month to month, creating an irregular trajectory: alumina output began 2025 at 12.23 Mt in January, fell 9.45 per cent in February to 11.08 million tonnes, then rebounded 8.6 per cent in March to 12.03 million tonnes before slipping 4.76 per cent in April to 11.46 million tonnes. The middle of the year was steadier — May edged up 2.68 per cent to 11.76 million tonnes, June dipped 0.38 per cent to 11.72 million tonnes, and July climbed 5.4 per cent to 12.35 million tonnes, with August adding another 1.31 per cent to reach 12.51 million tonnes.
September eased 3.0 per cent to 12.14 million tonnes, but October broke the pattern with a strong 4.03 per cent rise to 12.63 million tonnes, one of the highest totals of the year. If November and December stay on a similar path, 2025 is likely to end almost exactly where forecasters expected. Read Global Aluminium Industry Outlook 2025 for more details.
Early-year volatility and supply pressures
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