The aluminium sector across Africa and Asia (excluding China) has been gathering strength for three years now, and the momentum has carried cleanly into 2025. Over the first nine months of the year, the two regions produced 4.84 million tonnes of primary aluminium, supported by steady monthly output in the 504–544 thousand-tonne range and daily averages holding between 17.3 and 17.5 thousand tonnes. That consistency pushed cumulative production 1.55 per cent higher than in 2024 and 3.70 per cent above 2023, signalling a supply base that has become both more resilient and more predictable.
According to International Aluminium Association, the quarterly numbers show the same quiet climb. The 2025, began with 1.59 million tonnes in Q1, edged up to 1.61 million tonnes in Q2, and reached 1.63 million tonnes in Q3. These back-to-back increases — 1.25 per cent from Q1 to Q2 and 1.12 per cent from Q2 to Q3 — reflect an industry that has settled into a stable growth pattern.
That consistency didn’t appear overnight. In 2024, total output for January to September rose to 4.76 million tonnes, a 2.12 per cent improvement over the 4.6 million tonnes recorded in 2023.
Alumina output follows same upward curve
The alumina segment, which feeds the smelters, has been rising in step. January–September alumina production stood at 9.58 million tonnes in 2023; it climbed to 10.2 million tonnes in 2024 — a 7.35 per cent increase — with daily average ranging from 32.5 to 40.2 thousand tonnes. By 2025, that number had grown to 10.68 million tonnes, this time supported by daily averages of 36.2–40.8 thousand tonnes.
Quarterly figures underline how 2025 differed from the year before. Output moved from 3,407 thousand tonnes in Q1 to 3.58 million tonnes in Q2 (a 5.26 per cent rise), then to 3.69 million tonnes in Q3 (up 2.93 per cent). In 2024, the path was less smooth: 3.53 million tonnes in Q1, that fell to 3. 27 million tonnes in Q2 — a sharp 7.38 per cent drop — before rebounding to 3.46 million tonnes in Q3, which was 5.68 per cent higher.
Domestic consumption drives the region’s production
Behind the numbers lies a sharp change in what is motivating production. India, the largest aluminium producer in Asia excluding China, has entered a period where internal demand is shaping almost every decision. The country lifted primary aluminium output to around 4.2 million tonnes in 2024, from 4.13 million tonnes in 2023, yet the market at home already consumes 4.5 million tonnes. According to the forecasts this figure will be 8.3 million tonnes by 2030, assuming an 8 per cent CAGR as infrastructure, electrification and EV production continue to expand.
This has also created a surge in imports — from INR 300 billion (USD 3.3 billion) in FY21 to INR 700 billion (USD 7.8 billion) in FY25 — and pressure from industry to raise import duties from 7.5 per cent to 10 per cent. India’s long-term targets, 12 MTPA by 2030 and 37 MTPA by 2047, underline the expectation that domestic demand, not exports, will define the future of its aluminium industry.
Another country that is helping in this shift is Indonesia. Its smelting capacity has grown rapidly, including Huaqing Aluminium’s fivefold expansion, as the country positions itself to supply its EV and nickel–aluminium battery industries with locally processed bauxite. Most of this metal now remains in Southeast Asia, absorbed by construction and manufacturing.
For alumina production, the country continues to expand the capacity, with 11 alumina projects either under way or planned, together totalling 25.5 million tonnes. The first phase of Jinjiang Group’s 1-million-tonne-a-year refinery began operating in early 2025.
India is also expanding its refining base as well, targeting around 9.7 million tonnes of alumina output this year through ongoing work at Vedanta and NALCO.
From dependency to becoming independent - Africa's story
Africa’s story is more about assertive resource management. Guinea, long home to one of the world’s largest bauxite reserves, operates a major alumina refinery through the Guinea Alumina Corporation, producing more than 3 million tonnes a year. But 2025 signalled a stricter stance. The government cancelled Emirates Global Aluminium’s mining licence after the company failed to build the refinery it had committed to, and several other licences were pulled for similar reasons.
Ghana has been moving in the same direction. Its plans — overseen by the Ghana Integrated Aluminium Development Corporation — call for 4–6 million tonnes per year of refining capacity, supported by improved rail links to Takoradi Port and upgraded mining infrastructure. If Guinea completes its planned 2-million-tonne refinery by 2026 and Ghana’s projects take shape on schedule, Africa’s share of global aluminium production — currently 4–5 per cent — could rise toward 10–12 per cent within the decade. And across regions, the pull from construction, automotive manufacturing and the broader EV ecosystem remains strong.
Together, the shifts in Asia (excluding China) and Africa show an aluminium sector entering a more decisive phase. India’s demand-driven growth, Indonesia’s fast-expanding refining base and Africa’s push for local value addition are steadily redrawing the industry map. With new capacity coming online and both regions aligning themselves with construction, manufacturing and EV supply chains, the aluminium production map is redrawing itself.
Explore our B2B marketplace - AL Biz
_md.webp)
