AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
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Aluminium Vision 2047 vs Reality in 2025: Ambition, progress, and the gaps in between
To set the context of this piece, it is necessary to understand that India’s Aluminium Vision 2047 and Viksit Bharat are intrinsically aligned and they complement each other’s ambition. Truth be told, achieving the milestones outlined in the Aluminium Vision 2047 can place India on course to realise the broader objectives of Viksit Bharat. Ultimately, both the frameworks envision India as a self-reliant country in terms of robust manufacturing ecosystem, lower import dependence, high per capita consumption & Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and resource efficiency with a circular economy. The deadline for both Aluminium Vision and Viksit Bharat is also the same – 2047, the year India marks centenary of its independence. While there are over 2 decades to achieve the vision but early signs of...
Can US rebar duties, in reality, become aluminium’s next demand engine?
The US’s latest countervailing duty action against rebar imports from Algeria, Egypt and Vietnam is definitely a steel story. But in the layer under, it is shaping up to be a structural aluminium demand event for the North American construction ecosystem. In January 2026, the US Department of Commerce imposed preliminary countervailing duties of 72.94 per cent on Algerian rebar, 29.51 per cent on Egyptian material and 1.08 per cent on Vietnamese shipments, on top of the blanket 50 per cent steel and aluminium tariff regime. The move followed investigations launched in mid-2025 after domestic producers alleged heavy subsidisation and dumping. Also read: Role of energy prices 2025 and outlook in aluminium’s next 25 years, considering three likely distinct scenarios The immediate effect...
China's aluminium scrap prices surge to a record high
As of January 14, the average price for domestically-generated #6063 aluminium scrap in South China's Guangdong province had jumped 7.9 per cent from the end of last month to reach RMB 19,150 per tonne (USD 2,746 per tonne), the highest level since Mysteel commenced tracking the price in 2023. To know more about the global primary aluminium industry 2026 outlook, pre-book the report " Global Aluminium Industry Outlook 2026 ” at a special price. By the same day, China's composite primary aluminium price had also touched a near 19-year high of RMB 24,645 per tonne, including the 13 per cent VAT, Mysteel assessed. "Rising geopolitical tensions worldwide have recently sparked global concerns about the supply stability of nonferrous materials, which are pushing up prices of key metals such as...
India’s aluminium scrap imports grow at 8.6% CAGR over a decade: what’s driving scrap use and what comes next as policies evolve
A decade ago, aluminium scrap accounted for a relatively small share of India’s metals trade, with primary aluminium forming the backbone of supply for most downstream applications. But that hierarchy no longer holds. By 2025, aluminium scrap had moved from the sideline to the centre of India’s secondary aluminium and alloy production. Imports crossed the 2 million tonne mark for the first time, and the country remained nearly 85 per cent dependent on overseas scrap. What was once a supplementary input had quietly become indispensable. India’s aluminium scrap imports rose steadily over the past decade, almost doubling from 0.88 million tonnes in CY’15 to nearly 2 million tonnes in CY’25. Steady growth was measured rather than dramatic - imports edged up from 0.92 million tonnes in CY’16...
Role of energy prices 2025 and outlook in aluminium’s next 25 years, considering three likely distinct scenarios
Call it destiny or plain arithmetic, aluminium’s decarbonisation story now hinges on energy prices. The Hall-Héroult smelting process is evidently electricity-intensive, so swings in oil, gas, coal and (crucially) electricity prices feed directly into producers’ margins, and definitely into the calculus for switching smelters to renewables or cleaner fuels. Also read: Global bauxite production refused to blink in 2025, leading to an output exceeding 475 MT Starting with the numbers The IEA’s World Energy Outlook provides the baseline price paths used by markets and planners. Crude oil averaged about USD 79 per barrel in 2024, and under the IEA scenarios, oil will range roughly between USD 33-106 per barrel by 2035, depending on the policy pathway (Stated Policies Scenario vs Current...
Africa eyes 7MT of alumina by 2030 through new refineries – know how it will reshape the continent’s aluminium ecosystem
Ships leave Guinea’s ports every day loaded with bauxite destined for refineries thousands of miles away, while only a fraction of that ore is ever transformed at home. This contrast captures the essence of Africa’s aluminium story - a sector - rich in resources, steady in operations, yet still waiting for its value chain to come together. Over the past five years, Africa’s alumina capacity has remained unchanged at 0.65 million tonnes, while production has followed a clear cycle of decline and recovery. Output eased from 0.439 million tonnes in 2020 to 0.414 million tonnes in 2021, reflecting a 5.7 per cent year-on-year decline. The downturn intensified in 2022, when production fell to 0.340 million tonnes, a sharper 17.9 per cent contraction from the previous year. The decline extended...
China sets five-year targets for renewable resource recycling
Under the Action Plan for Promoting the Application of Recycled Materials, by 2030, China aims to achieve an annual recycling volume of over 300 million tonnes for steel scrap and 80 million tonnes for wastepaper, as well as annual production exceeding 25 million tonnes of secondary nonferrous metals and 19.5 million tonnes of recycled plastics. To know more about the global primary aluminium industry 2026 outlook, pre-book the report " Global Aluminium Industry Outlook 2026 ” at a special price. By 2025, China's total steel scrap recycling volume was around 255 million tonnes, while that of waste paper was 72.5 million tonnes, Mysteel's survey showed. The country's central government will further enhance the supply of renewable resources by promoting technological upgrades and building...
India aluminium ADC12 prices rise over 5 per cent in CY'25; will prices hold in Q1CY'26?
GST 2.0 reforms improved vehicle affordability, boosting demand India's ADC12 aluminium alloy ingot prices strengthened on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis in calendar year (CY) 2025, supported by firmer domestic market fundamentals. Average OEM ADC12 prices in Delhi increased from INR 213,875 per tonne in CY'24 to INR 225,375 per tonne in CY'25, reflecting a 5.4 per cent rise y-o-y. To know more about the global primary aluminium industry 2026 outlook, pre-book the report " Global Aluminium Industry Outlook 2026 ” at a special price. Likewise, average OEM prices in Chennai climbed from INR 215,450 per tonne to INR 226,021 per tonne, marking a 5 per cent increase y-o-y. The average price spread between ADC12 and tense scrap narrowed slightly to INR 35,000-36,000 per tonne in 2025, compared...
From peak to plunge: What puts Australia alumina FOB price under pressure in 2025 and what it looks like in 2026
For over a year now, the Australian alumina market has rarely stayed out of the headlines. Sometimes due to capacity curtailment at refineries and sometimes because of the volatile Free On Board (FOB) price, which swung dramatically within a span of a year from as high as USD 700 per tonne in Q4 2024 to USD 317 per tonne in Q4 2025. Factors like freight rates and currency movements to investor sentiment pull at the price lever, yet the fundamental triad of production, demand, and supply plays the most critical role in directing the price movement. Australia’s benchmark role in the global alumina trade For being the world’s second-largest supplier of alumina after Guinea, Australia’s alumina FOB price is widely treated as a benchmark for long-term contracts, hedging strategies, and spot...
Post-Venezuela’s capture, 7 countries tremble, fearing for their independence and their reserves
Trump’s foreign policy is now openly borrowing from the 1823 Monroe Doctrine, re-packaged as the “Donroe Doctrine” — a doctrine that signals Washington’s intent to dominate the Western Hemisphere not only militarily, but commercially. With Nicolás Maduro dragged out of Caracas, this rebranding suddenly feels operational rather than rhetorical. Also read: Before sanctions on Venezuela and the likes, Trump’s tariff-induced tussle was already global From the Arctic to the Caribbean, governments are suddenly scanning their coastlines, their oil fields and their shipping lanes with fresh anxiety. Greenland The United States already operates the Pituffik Space Base in Greenland, but Trump has made it clear that partial presence is no longer enough. "We need Greenland from the standpoint of...
MONTHLY: China's alumina supply-demand gap may widen in January
Last December, the impact on overall alumina output of more frequent production suspensions for routine maintenance and air pollution controls was limited. At the end of last year, most domestic alumina refiners operated steadily throughout the month to meet existing long-term contractual obligations and pursue potential new contracts, the report noted. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with 50+ reports across the value chain According to Mysteel's monthly survey, during December, production of metallurgical-grade alumina among the 44 Chinese refiners under its regular tracking rose by 2.1 per cent from November to 8 million tonnes, marking the highest monthly level since Mysteel began tracking the data in January 2017. The on-month increase was largely because...
Global bauxite production refused to blink in 2025, leading to an output exceeding 475 MT
Image for reference only The global bauxite production for 2025 stands at an estimated 475-480 million tonnes, as per AL Circle research. The year has seen it all. From sanctions to initiations, hikes to deflations and a series of volatilities hitting the industry over and over. But the bauxite industry has pushed through all obstacles and maintained the year’s forecast. What all shaped the industry last year? Here’s a list of major to minor incidents that influenced global bauxite 2025. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with our Outlook 2026 insight s across the value chain Courts, coffers and the opening bell of disruption It began with a surge of capital into Guinea when Arrow Minerals secured USD 7 million to accelerate its Niagara bauxite and Simandou North...
India cracks $50B iPhone exports, auto components are the next target with a 5 year CAGR of 14% - what it means for aluminium?
After turning iPhones into a USD 50 billion export success and building a global presence in electronics, India is now trying to answer a harder question: can auto components deliver the same scale of growth in global markets? The government believes the answer could be yes - but only if the sector can replicate what electronics got right: standards alignment, manufacturing depth and integration into global supply chains. The confidence to attempt this shift comes from the electronics success history, which is now reinforcing confidence that a similar export breakthrough is possible in auto components. Electronics production rose nearly six-fold from INR 1.9 billion (USD 30.7 million) in 2014 - 15 to INR 1.13 trillion (USD 12.5 billion) in 2024 - 25, while mobile phone exports jumped 127...
WEEKLY: China thermal coal finds a floor, but recovery looks fragile
As of January 4, a makeup workday in China for the New Year's Day holiday, Mysteel assessed the benchmark 5,500 kcal per kg NAR thermal coal at RMB 690 per tonne (USD 98.8 per tonne) FOB northern ports with VAT, up by RMB 3 per tonne from a week earlier. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with 50+ reports across the value chain The market started recovering on December 30, when downstream buyers moved to seek spot cargoes at northern ports, anticipating cold weather systems to boost residential heating demand in early January across many places in the country, as Mysteel Global reported. At the same time, traders became more reluctant to offer price cuts after prolonged losses over the past month. Besides the emerging demand, their firmer pricing stance was also...
Oil, Energy Security, or Fiscal Relief - what Venezuela means for US
At the start of 2026, the Trump administration once again dominates global headlines—much as it did at the beginning of 2025. Then, the flashpoint was tariffs on aluminium and steel imports; now, it is the US military strike on Venezuela. In the early hours of January 3, 2026, around 2 a.m. local time, the United States launched a military operation codenamed Operation Absolute Resolve; and within the next few days, speculation over Washington’s motives and the broader consequences has intensified. Well, President Donald Trump has been unequivocal about the intent. Following the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, Trump announced that the US would assume control of Venezuela to tap into the South American nation’s vast oil reserves. This move is quite a familiar geo-political pattern as...
Inner Mongolia approves relocation of primary aluminium capacity from Henan
The relocation will be carried out through an internal capacity transfer by Yidian Holding Group Co., Ltd., a Chinese aluminium and power producer. Under the plan, the company will transfer 240,000 tonnes per year of primary aluminium capacity from its controlling subsidiary Henan Hengkang Aluminium Co., Ltd. (Hengkang Aluminium) located in Sanmenxia city, Henan, to another controlling subsidiary, Inner Mongolia Dongshan Aluminium Co., Ltd. (Dongshan Aluminium), based in Chifeng city, Inner Mongolia, according to the announcement. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with 50+ reports across the value chain The two subsidiaries, Hengkang aluminium and Dongshan aluminium, have signed a capacity transfer agreement and formulated a capacity swap plan, the announcement said....
Thailand demonstrates aluminium export resilience; remains hopeful amidst CBAM challenges
The European Union’s (EU) policy of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), imposing “carbon-leakage” charges on cement, iron and steel, aluminium, fertilisers, electricity and hydrogen imported into the EU, has raised concerns among the European and exporting countries. Thailand, however, emerges with remarkable resilience under the CBAM regulations. Its industrial carbon-intensive goods export to the EU has surged drastically in the first 10 months of 2025. Thailand’s metal export containing aluminium, steel and iron had initially hit a slump during the CBAM transitional phase of 2023-2025. Despite the carbon emissions roadblock, the country made a fast recovery, and the aluminium, steel and iron export saw a steep hike by 54.71 per cent, rising from 0.29 per cent and capturing 0.42...
Before sanctions on Venezuela and the likes, Trump’s tariff-induced tussle was already global
The US attack on Venezuela has pulled eyeballs from nations across the globe. From the Venezuelan President and his wife’s arrest to zealing to take control of the attacked country’s vast oil reserve, the US supremo’s actions have stirred quite a debate on the world forum. But when we reminisce the past, we have realised that this is not the first time that the world has gone gaga over a Donald Trump-imposed decision. Long before sanctions on Caracas, On March 1, 2018, the US President, Donald Trump, announced his intention to impose a 25 per cent tariff on steel and a 10 per cent tariff on aluminium imports. In a tweet the next day, Trump declared, "Trade wars are good, and easy to win." On March 8, he signed an order to impose the tariffs effective after 15 days. Not long after, the...
