Role of energy prices 2025 and outlook in aluminium’s next 25 years, considering three likely distinct scenarios

Call it destiny or plain arithmetic, aluminium’s decarbonisation story now hinges on energy prices. The Hall-Héroult smelting process is evidently electricity-intensive, so swings in oil, gas, coal and (crucially) electricity prices feed directly into producers’ margins, and definitely into the calculus for switching smelters to renewables or cleaner fuels.

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Starting with the numbers