AL Circle Analysis: 243% US scrap rise, 6Mt European recycling & Germany’s power fix drive aluminium trade
Aluminium’s trade map is no longer drawn by smelters alone. Scrap flows, power contracts, industrial policy and specialist grades now shape who secures metal, at what cost and under whose rules. Ten recent developments across Europe, the US, Australia, Japan and Mexico show how recycling, energy and regulation are becoming the new levers of aluminium competitiveness. They also show where traders, exporters and policymakers may need to adjust. Scrap tug-of-war: the US pull, Europe’s leak and the recycling base at stake The pull starts with price. The US UBC scrap benchmark averaged USD 2,322.89 a tonne in July, USD 2,491.22 in August and USD 2,602.51 in September. That is a 12 per cent climb, and it came after a July that opened at USD 2,464.98 and fell to USD 2,270.76 within two days....
Europe’s 9M 2026 aluminium production jumps to 5.56Mt as smelter restarts gain ground
As the global aluminium supply chain continues to swing between shifts and crunches, how has Europe fared on the production front in the 2026 year-to-date calendar? Substantially well, going by the output figures. Between January and September 2026, the European continent, including Russia, has produced a total of 5.56 million tonnes of primary aluminium, building a significant year-on-year growth chart. The nine-month growth chart Set against the same period of 2025, the first nine months of 2026 show a clear lift in output. From January to September 2026, Europe, including Russia, produced 5.56 million tonnes of primary aluminium, raising the annual growth rate by 5.69 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) over the 5.26 million tonnes produced in 2025. Explore the production, demand and...
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Guinea’s bauxite exports outpace production by 3.3%, routed to China - What drives China’s dominance and its market impact?
Guinea possesses a geological advantage few countries can rival . Beneath its terrain lies an estimated 7.4 billion tonnes of bauxite - nearly one-third of the world’s reserves. Yet despite this abundance, very little is refined domestically. Instead, the ore departs largely in raw form, feeding industrial chains abroad, mostly to China. As exports of bauxite continue to rise, a natural question follows: has Guinea’s mining engine begun to move in step with China’s industrial demand? The numbers increasingly suggest a relationship shaped by consistency rather than coincidence. By 2025, Guinea’s exports to the world are estimated at 190 million tonnes, with China absorbing the majority. In just the first eleven months, roughly 138 million tonnes were shipped there - about 74 per cent of...
India: Imported aluminium scrap falls w-o-w on LME correction; domestic market stays supported amid tight supply
Suppliers delayed revised price announcements. The market adopted a cautious wait-and-see approach. India's imported aluminium scrap prices fell w-o-w aligning with the correction seen on LME. Meanwhile, domestic scrap prices held largely steady amid tight domestic supply. To know more about the global recycled aluminium industry 2026 outlook, book the report “ Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 ". BigMint assessed Middle East-origin Tense (8-9 per cent) at USD1,965 per tonne, down USD35 per tonne w-o-w, whereas Extrusion 6063 edged down by USD35 per tonne to USD2,865 per tonne, though demand for these grades remained firm. Read More: Aluminium scrap export restrictions divide EU policymakers and recyclers LME aluminium prices ease LME aluminium three-month prices fell by 2 per cent...
Gränges AB posts fifth straight year of record profit as volume growth offsets pricing, FX and scrap pressure
Gränges closed 2025 with its strongest operating performance on record, extending its streak of all-time-high operating profit to a fifth consecutive year, even as currency headwinds, weaker HVAC demand and tighter scrap margins weighed on profitability across regions. The year was defined by aggressive market share gains, capacity ramp-ups in Asia, and volume-led growth rather than margin expansion. For the full year ended December 2025, overall aluminium sales volume rose 21.9 per cent year-on-year to 616.6 thousand tonnes from 505.8 thousand tonnes in 2024. Net sales increased 20.7 per cent to SEK 28.36 billion (USD 2.73 billion), despite a cumulative negative foreign exchange impact of SEK 1.69 billion (USD 163 million). Adjusted operating profit edged up 2.7 per cent year-on-year to...
India-US pact: Reduction from 50% to 18% tariffs in exchange for Russian oil halt, rebate on aluminium yet to come
The United States and India are about to shake hands on new duty protocols under which tariffs on most Indian-made products are expected to be reduced to 18 per cent. However, aluminium and steel are expected to face the previously announced higher tariffs until further discussions. To know more about the global primary aluminium industry 2026 outlook, book the report “ Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 ". While India has maintained high import tariffs on vehicles and automotive parts to protect its domestic automobile industry from being crushed by global giants and promote local manufacturing, as companies like Hindustan Motors, Tata, and Mahindra were still developing. The agreement also addressed the US concerns over these high automotive tariffs (60-100 per cent). India is now...
MONTHLY: China thermal coal faces muted price swings in holiday-heavy Feb
In January, spot prices at northern ports showed only mild volatility. The benchmark 5,500 kcal per kg NAR coal opened the month at RMB 690 per tonne (USD 99.5 per tonne), rose to RMB 706 per tonne in mid-January, then retreated to RMB 693 per tonne before closing at RMB 699 per tonne on January 30, according to Mysteel assessments. To know more about the global primary aluminium industry 2026 outlook, book the report “ Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 ". Earlier in the month, colder weather lifted coal burn at some coastal electricity utilities, prompting stronger spot buying at northern ports. At the same time, reduced rail inflows from northern coal fields led to inventory drawdowns at ports, lending temporary support to prices. As temperatures rebounded and demand softened,...
With up to 51% consumption and 43% export, Australia’s bauxite market shows a balanced story
Australia’s bauxite story doesn’t shout for attention. It is not driven by sharp swings or sudden shifts, but by gradual adjustments across production, trade, and domestic use. Recent data shows output easing, exports rebalancing across markets, and a large share of material staying within the country’s refining system. Taken together, these trends point less to volatility and more to a controlled realignment, as Australia fine-tunes how it supplies both its own industry and a tightening global market. Production slipped from 104 million tonnes in 2023 to 100.2 million tonnes in 2024, a drop of about 3.65 per cent, before recovering in the first eleven months of 2025, when output rose to 101.4 million tonnes, marking a 1.20 per cent year-on-year increase. The longer view points to a...
Europe’s aluminium foil market decoded: Production and consumption drift apart, altering export–import balances
The numbers tell a quiet but compelling story. Year after year, global aluminium foil consumption has moved steadily upward - not in bursts, but in a measured climb that signals durable, long-term demand that helps in aluminium market forecast. Back in 2018, worldwide aluminium foil usage was about 5.3 million tonnes. By 2023, that figure had climbed to 6.1 million tonnes. Current estimates place consumption at roughly 6.8 million tonnes in 2025, with volumes expected to move closer to 7 million tonnes in 2026. Europe is following a similar path. Demand is gradually firming up, supported largely by pharmaceutical packaging and the region’s continued shift toward premium products. However, stricter regulations aimed at reducing packaging waste, along with elevated energy costs, are keeping...
WEEKLY: Output cuts trim China alumina prices while stocks stay high
During January 23-29, alumina prices held largely stable but continued to be soft. Mysteel's price assessment showed that the national spot price for metallurgical-grade alumina edged down by 0.3 per cent on a weekly basis to average RMB 2,648 per tonne (USD 381 per tonne) as of January 29. The pace of decline had slowed from the 0.6 per cent drop recorded the previous week, however. Read More: DAILY: Chinese spot alumina prices largely flat, futures gain further Meanwhile, alumina production fell for a second consecutive week. The 44 Chinese refiners tracked by Mysteel produced a total of 1.83 million tonnes of smelter-grade alumina during the January 23-29 week, down 0.5 per cent from the previous week, according to Mysteel's survey. The modest decline reflected output curtailment at a...
Aluminium price forecast: $3,000 ascent in January demands a global price recalculation
The London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium contract entered 2026 with a bang of a hike, as in early January, the three-month contract crossed USD 3,000 per tonne for the first time since 2022, trading at USD 3,015.50 before extending gains later in the month. The move was not the product of speculative momentum alone. Back in 2022 production and energy costs, China’s production cap and Russia-Ukraine’s war imparted their fair share of spices into the price hike scenario. But this time, it reflected a convergence of constrained supply, tightening physical availability and US and EU’s policy-driven rigidity, consequently leading to altered price expectations for the rest of 2026. For the global aluminium value-chain 2026 outlook, get our exclusive report “ Global ALuminium Industry Outlook...
US aluminium midwest premium in Jan’26 exceeds the $2k mark, hitting an all-time high
Ever since the US President Donald Trump’s tariff imposition, the market witnessed its regional aluminium premium rise, exceeding USD 1 per pound. Consequently, for the first time, the US Midwest Premium for aluminium has surged to an all-time high at USD 2,182 per tonne. According to the Fastmarkets report, this development occurred on January 28. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 across the value chain In early June, the Trump administration imposed a 50 per cent tariff on aluminium imports, with the premium hitting a record above 64 cents. The US Midwest Premium, a surcharge over the London Metals Exchange (LME), has more than doubled and remained on a rising trend since then. On January 8, 2026, the premium exceeded USD...
Union Budget FY2026–27 puts nuclear energy, carbon storage and critical minerals at the centre of India’s decarbonisation strategy
The much-awaited Union Budget FY2026-27, presented by the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Sunday, February 1, signals a decisive shift towards aligning India’s economic growth with its decarbonisation ambitions and the long-term vision of Viksit Bharat 2047 . This Budget comes at a juncture when India prepares to leverage opportunities arising from the EU–India trade deal while simultaneously navigating the cost risk posed by the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Also, for carbon-intensive industries like aluminium, which emits 20.88 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of production in India, making the industry as one of the most carbon-intensive sectors in the country compared to the global average, this budget underpins the urgency of accelerating the transition to...
Alcoa 2025 performance: Revenue jumped 15% in Q4, supported by record output at five aluminium smelters
Failing initially doesn’t mean failing overall - it just means something needs to be fixed, and that’s what summarises the whole of Alcoa’s financial report card. Alcoa started the year well, but after that it mostly went quiet. The business didn’t really improve again until the last quarter, which is what ended up saving the year. Alcoa President and CEO William F. Oplinger said, “Reflecting on 2025, we maintained our pace of delivering on key operational, strategic, and capital allocation objectives, while setting numerous production records. We continue to build on our positive momentum through disciplined operational and financial execution, along with strategic initiatives to maximise value creation.” If we look at the numbers, revenue started strong. In the first quarter, Alcoa...
MYSTEEL: China's primary aluminium supply-demand balance may tighten in 2026
In 2025, the total supply of primary aluminium in China, including both domestic production and imports, reached an estimated 46.64 million tonnes, up 3.1 per cent from the previous year, Mysteel estimated. To know more about the global primary aluminium industry 2026 outlook, book the report “ Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 ". Mysteel's regular tracking of the 89 primary aluminium smelters across China shows that their total production in 2025 rose by 2.7 per cent on year to register 44.4 million tonnes, though the growth rate slowed from a 4.1 per cent increase recorded in 2024. Their average capacity utilisation rate also picked up by 1.7 percentage points on a year to reach 97 per cent last year, according to the survey results. These smelters hold 100 per cent of the...
CEM’s Thor project: Is Canada eyeing an alumina abundance to reduce bauxite import dependence?
Canadian Energy Metals Corporation (CEM) has released a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for its Thor Project in Saskatchewan. It outlines the potential for a globally significant, Chemical-Grade and High-Purity alumina stock during the times of high aluminium demand, as aluminium supply chains are under growing geopolitical and trade pressure. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 across the value chain CEM President and CEO Christopher Hopkins referred to the Thor project as “a possible game changer for North America’s aluminium supply chain.” He mentioned establishing the Saskatchewan alumina stock and added, “Our next focus is to engineer a demonstration facility while moving Thor towards commercialisation.” The PEA...
India Energy Week 2026 ends but sets the course for aluminium’s green transition
India Energy Week 2026, which concluded on January 30, has left the energy ecosystem with much to reflect on for the year ahead. The fourth edition of the 4-day conference reinforced a clear message and that was every industry, whether directly or indirectly connected to power, electricity, and fuel must now reassess its strategies in light of accelerating energy transition journey. And among all the industries, definitely aluminium takes a centre stage in this discussion, given its energy-intensive nature. Data indicates aluminium embodies total 186-211 GJ of energy per tonne, while primary aluminium production alone needs 13.5 to 17 MWh per tonne. At the same time, the industry is under mounting pressure to decarbonsie its ecosystem, with a near-term goal of bringing the carbon...
From bauxite to alumina: key projects redefining aluminium supply in 2025
2025 has marked a year of upstream momentum for the aluminium industry. Across continents, bauxite mines and alumina refineries are coming online, quietly redefining where global supply begins. This shift is being driven by a wave of projects that are expanding raw material capacity and reshaping countries’ positions within the aluminium value chain. Highlighting some of 2025’s key Bauxite project 1. Canyon’s Minim Martap enters commercial reality Cameroon’s bauxite story has moved out of the speculative stage. Commercial activity is now underway at Canyon’s Minim Martap bauxite project in the Adamawa Region, signalling that Central Africa is stepping into a more concrete supply role. The mine is designed to produce high-grade bauxite with low reactive silica, suitable for both low- and...
India-Canada’s energy reset with signing of joint statement: Trade, gas, nuclear and the math behind
The first two days of India Energy Week (IEW) 2026 were not short on announcements, but one development cut through the noise — India and Canada quietly reset their energy relationship, anchoring it in trade, supply security and investment logic rather than political symbolism. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 across the value chain The revival of the India-Canada ministerial energy dialogue and the signing of a joint statement between India’s Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas and Canada’s Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources came against a backdrop of tightening global energy markets and an increasingly explicit Indian strategy, one that treats hydrocarbons, gas, nuclear fuel and clean energy as parallel growth...
India’s transport energy balance: why petroleum, diesel and electricity must move in parallel, not in opposition
India’s transport transition is often framed as a contest between internal combustion engines and electric mobility. The data, along with the lived reality of energy demand, suggest something far less binary. As Dr Chanchal Samanta, DGM of Bharat Petroleum, made clear in his remarks at the ongoing India Energy Week 2026, India is not facing a fuel choice problem. It is managing a growth problem. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with Global Aluminium Industry Outlook 2026 across the value chain Electric vehicles are rightfully positioned as the sustainable endpoint for transport. But for a country like India, the energy system is expanding faster than substitution can realistically occur. “One is growth, and one is total growth,” Samanta said, pointing to the gap the...
