AL Circle Analysis: 243% US scrap rise, 6Mt European recycling & Germany’s power fix drive aluminium trade
Aluminium’s trade map is no longer drawn by smelters alone. Scrap flows, power contracts, industrial policy and specialist grades now shape who secures metal, at what cost and under whose rules. Ten recent developments across Europe, the US, Australia, Japan and Mexico show how recycling, energy and regulation are becoming the new levers of aluminium competitiveness. They also show where traders, exporters and policymakers may need to adjust. Scrap tug-of-war: the US pull, Europe’s leak and the recycling base at stake The pull starts with price. The US UBC scrap benchmark averaged USD 2,322.89 a tonne in July, USD 2,491.22 in August and USD 2,602.51 in September. That is a 12 per cent climb, and it came after a July that opened at USD 2,464.98 and fell to USD 2,270.76 within two days....
Europe’s 9M 2026 aluminium production jumps to 5.56Mt as smelter restarts gain ground
As the global aluminium supply chain continues to swing between shifts and crunches, how has Europe fared on the production front in the 2026 year-to-date calendar? Substantially well, going by the output figures. Between January and September 2026, the European continent, including Russia, has produced a total of 5.56 million tonnes of primary aluminium, building a significant year-on-year growth chart. The nine-month growth chart Set against the same period of 2025, the first nine months of 2026 show a clear lift in output. From January to September 2026, Europe, including Russia, produced 5.56 million tonnes of primary aluminium, raising the annual growth rate by 5.69 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) over the 5.26 million tonnes produced in 2025. Explore the production, demand and...
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AI in canmaking: A tool to increase production performance
Artificial Intelligence has reached a maturity level that allows it to generate real analysis and measurable gains in industrial operations. Yet, within the canmaking industry, its adoption remains slow, often due to a combination of cultural resistance, limited digital infrastructure, and the misconception that AI is a futuristic tool rather than an operational necessity. For an industry that operates at extremely high speeds and tight tolerances, AI is no longer optional, it is the next competitive edge. In this article for The Metal Packager, Luiz Siqueira, an independent consultant in industrial management, who previously worked as industrial director/COO at Brasilata, explores how AI can effectively collaborate with the management of can production processes, transforming...
2025 Global bauxite production stands at around 480MT - From Weipa to Paragominas, who’s powered the growth?
中文翻译附于新闻末尾，敬请继续阅读。 Bauxite is the primary raw material used to produce alumina and, ultimately, aluminium - a metal essential to modern infrastructure, transport, packaging and clean energy systems. From power transmission lines to electric vehicles and beverage cans, aluminium’s widespread use begins with stable and sufficient bauxite supply. Against this backdrop, the global bauxite market is entering 2026 with firmer fundamentals. AL Circle research estimates global bauxite production at 475–480 million tonnes in 2025, with output projected to rise by 6 per cent year-on-year in 2026. Demand across infrastructure, mobility, packaging and energy transition sectors continues to underpin this rise. To know more about the global primary aluminium industry 2026 outlook, book the report “...
Global aluminium scrap tracker 2025: A 41.7Mt backbone under pressure as demand rises 3.87%
If 2024 was the year aluminium demand normalised, 2025 is the year scrap becomes the pressure valve. Global cumulative aluminium consumption reached 100.8 million tonnes in 2024, with 28.4 million tonnes supplied by recycled aluminium. That share, already above 28 per cent, is not a marginal contribution. It is a structural layer of the market. And it sits beneath a primary system that is tightening rather than expanding. Primary aluminium production moved from 72.7 million tonnes in 2024 to 73.9 million tonnes in 2025, with a forecast of 75.3 million tonnes in 2026. On paper, that looks like growth. In reality, it is constrained growth. China is approaching its 45 million tonne capacity cap (whereas some speculate the primary production has exceeded 45 million tonnes in 2025 already),...
As global aluminium consumption heads towards 106.8 MT in 2026, What’s driving the growth - and which region leads the way?
What links electric cars, urban skylines, beverage cans and solar farms stretching across a desert? The answer is aluminium, which is steadily tightening its grip on the modern economy, and the numbers tell a story of consistent, broad-based expansion. Global aluminium consumption in the end user sectors rose from 96.92 million tonnes in 2023 to 100.8 million tonnes in 2024 - a year-on-year increase of about 4.0 per cent. The pace is moderate but firm. Demand is projected to reach 104.01 million tonnes in 2025, up another 3.2 per cent, before climbing to 106.8 million tonnes in 2026, a further 2.7 per cent rise. This is not a short-term spike. It reflects a structural shift driven by transportation, construction and the accelerating green transition that is embedding aluminium deeper into...
Strategic trade-off at what cost? Alcoa’s USD38.9M penalty against 18-month bauxite mining allowance lifts concerns
Conflicts between governments and mining giants over environmental protection and conservation are hardly new, and for Alcoa, it stretches back at least a decade. The latest episode has unfolded in Western Australia, where the US-based miner (Alcoa) has clashed with the Australian Department of the Environment over bauxite extraction in the North Jarrah Forest, south of Perth. The dispute has even culminated in Alcoa agreeing to pay USD 38.9 million (AUD 55 million) penalty to clear 2100 hectares of land between 2019 and 2025 in the North Jarrah forest, south of Perth. Environment Minister Murray Watt confirmed on Wednesday, February 18, that this penalty charged is part of a remediation deal and that the money will go into conservation initiatives such as strengthening invasive-species...
Global aluminium extrusion leaders 2025: Top producers with their output capacity and expansion plans
Aluminium extrusion begins with a heated billet pushed through a precision steel die under intense pressure. What comes out can be something as simple as a rod or tube - or as complex as a structural component for an aircraft or a crash-management system in a vehicle. Its appeal lies in a rare mix of strength, light weight and design freedom, which is why extrusion continues to sit at the centre of modern manufacturing. Across Europe, North America, India and the Gulf, extrusion players are adjusting capacity, investing in downstream capabilities and fine-tuning operations to stay aligned with demand that is increasingly specialised rather than purely volume-driven. The top extrusions companies are listed below: Hydro Extrusions Hydro Extrusions is one of the industry’s largest players by...
Global aluminium capacity to grow 4.58% with an additional 20.9 Mt coming by end-2026
中文翻译附于新闻末尾，敬请继续阅读。 Though a plethora of speed breakers hit the aluminium industry in recent times, global primary aluminium operating capacity is set to rise sharply. SMM, through one of its recently held webinars, projects an increase of about 20.9 million tonnes by the end of 2026, taking total operating capacity to roughly 77.16 million tonnes, with Indonesia among the largest incremental contributors. Global primary aluminium production in 2025 grew marginally to approximately 73.78 million tonnes, up from 73.01 million tonnes in 2024, representing a 5-year low in growth rate. China, holding a 45 million tonne capacity cap, operated at nearly 97 per cent capacity (approx. 43.9 million tonnes) in 2025, limiting global growth, with the market facing continued supply deficits. The...
Is the aluminium coffee capsule recycling racing to gain the same traction as the aluminium cans? Everything you need to know…
Recycling of aluminium coffee capsules, in France, is rapidly increasing with the right public awareness and behaviour towards reusing, reflecting both progress and persistent challenges in sorting practices. A survey of 1,977 users taken between November 20 and December 9, 2025, revealed that a quarter of participants make use of aluminium coffee capsules. The Associationpour le Recyclage des Capsules en Aluminium (ARCA), a French initiative, ensures 100 per cent of aluminium coffee capsules are recycled and is looking to measure the factors in aluminium capsule sorting practices for understanding the current challenges and push recycling further. Numbers showing where the recycling of coffee capsules stands A market research analyst from FMI deems that the recycling systems of the...
A 5-year high production of world alumina tells just the opposite story than primary metal – here’s the insider
The world alumina production in 2025 tells markedly different story thanprimary aluminium. While the primary metal clocked the weakest growth rate in recent years, alumina registered the strongest five-year leap. According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), the world alumina production gained 5.07 per cent Y-o-Y in 2025 as against a 1.06 per cent increase in the world primary aluminium output . In the preceding years, the global alumina production growth rate majorly ranged between 2-4 per cent from 2021 to 2024. The acceleration was led overwhelmingly by metallurgical-grade alumina, the feedstock for aluminium smelters. As far as chemical-grade is concerned, it grew by 3.15 per cent in 2025, which, however, was not the highest growth in past five years. In years like 2021...
China to lift domestic coal output to offset Indonesian supply crunch?
On February 9, the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association (CCTDA) revised its forecast for China's coal imports during 2026 to 465 million tonnes, down from 480 million tonnes projected just three weeks earlier. The adjustment was mainly linked to Indonesia's newly-announced plan to slash coal output. China is Indonesia's largest coal importer. To know more about the global recycled aluminium industry 2026 outlook, book the report “ Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 ". Although Jakarta has yet to finalise the policy, authorities have indicated that in an effort to boost state revenue, 2026 production could be cut to around 600 million tonnes from 790 million tonnes in 2025, as Mysteel Global reported. Indonesia expects that paring back supply will cause coal prices to...
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Indonesia’s aluminium industry to be hit by 317% inflated power hunger, with a potential 9.5 GW demand by 2028
Indonesia’s aluminium industry is growing fast, tackling all the stalled sites and upgrading technology at processing units. The RKAB structure has made sure that the ore and the subsequent production process are streamlined. But what about the electrons? Globally, electricity alone accounts for roughly 30-35 per cent of the cost of producing one tonne of primary aluminium. By 2028, Indonesia’s primary aluminium smelting capacity is projected to rise from 0.75 million tonnes per annum in 2024 to 3.13 million tonnes in 2028, a 317 per cent increase in just four years. That expansion is the final leg of Jakarta’s downstream pivot: converting bauxite reserves into integrated alumina and aluminium output. But the decisive constraint is neither geology nor capital. It is power. For the global...
Global EV sales 2025: Volume expansion up 20%, but growth paths diverge sharply by regions
The 2025 global EV sales data point to a newly aligned market than even two years earlier. Growth is no longer limited by consumer acceptance or product availability. Instead, it is being rationed by three quantifiable constraints, such as entry price dispersion of more than EUR 20,000 (USD 23,600) between major regions, infrastructure expansion lagging BEV stock growth by a factor of two in key markets, and abrupt regulation withdrawals that can erase a quarter’s worth of demand in a single quarter. Based on cumulative data through October and full-year estimations, total EV sales in 2025 are estimated at approximately 20-21 million units, up around 20-23 per cent year-on-year compared with 2024, with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) at the core of the expansion. BEV sales across the 40...
With a remarkable capacity of 253.96 GW, India’s power sector advances towards a future in renewable energy
Renewable energy , a key element for a low-carbon future, has immensely flourished in the Indian power landscape. Electrification changes with solar energy, wind energy, hydropower etc., had begun with a nominal capacity of 76.37 GW in 2014, and India made significant progress in upgrading its energy sector in recent years. As of November 2025, the nation has attained a renewable energy capacity of 253.96 GW, denoting an increase of over 228 per cent . It is simultaneously meeting rising electricity demand in India and advancing sustainable practices. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 across the value chain At present, India stands as renewable energy market that is the fourth-largest on the global platform. It reflects the...
Ball Corporation’s 2025 performance: Volume-led growth, margin discipline and a reset capital structure
Ball Corporation exited fiscal 2025 as a structurally leaner aluminium packaging company, delivering double-digit revenue growth, region-wide volume expansion and record free cash flow, while headline earnings declined from an aerospace-inflated 2024 base. The year marked a reset in Ball’s earnings quality, balance-sheet profile and capital allocation framework. On a US GAAP basis, full-year 2025 net sales rose 11.6 per cent year-on-year to USD 13.16 billion, compared with USD 11.80 billion in 2024. Growth accelerated into the year’s close, with fourth-quarter revenue increasing 16.3 per cent Y-o-Y to USD 3.35 billion, reflecting higher shipment volumes and favourable price/mix across regions. Earnings optics distort Y-o-Y comparison Reported net earnings attributable to Ball Corporation...
Feature: China seen moving away from coal supply guarantees amid shifted energy mix
Supply guarantee policy reshapes coal market In May 2021, the Chinese government rolled out the coal supply guarantee policy to address an abrupt coal shortage that had quickly pushed up the fuel prices and caused power cuts in a few areas of the country. The subsequent droughts which dampened hydropower generation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict from 2022 further underscored the national energy security, elevating coal's role in this key task. To know more about the global recycled aluminium industry 2026 outlook, book the report “ Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 ". The policy has been optimized constantly in the following couple of years with broader capacity expansions, wider coverage of coal medium- and long-term contracts, stricter contract fulfillment requirements, limits for...
Impact Minerals’ quarterly report marks a success-driven approach in the annual 2025 landscape
Australian Impact Minerals Limited released its quarterly update for October-December 2025 on January 30, 2026. This report completes the full annual cycle of the progress in the Lake Hope High Purity Alumina (HPA) Project and the financial performance of the mineral mining company throughout the calendar year 2026. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 across the value chain Quarterly financial reports: December vs September ’25 A Quarter-on-Quarter (Q-o-Q) comparison between the December and September quarters of 2025 depicts a mixed cash flow performance. Operating cash flow weakened by 17.1 per cent, easing from AUD 580 thousand to AUD 481 thousand . Inversely, investing cash flow increased from AUD 732 thousand to AUD 1.09...
Aluminium left out of India’s US and EU trade deals-but the industry may still benefit and here’s how
In a span of just one week, India has signed two major international trade agreements – one with the European Union and another with the United States. Together, these much-awaited deals are projected to add nearly USD 150 billion to India’s exports over the next one decade and ease several longstanding trade frictions. While all this is great, aluminium being conspicuously absent from both the agreements send through some disappointment at a first glance. But later on, a closer analysis suggests that India’s aluminium industry may not be materially disadvantaged and could even benefit indirectly through downstream demand. To know more about the global primary aluminium industry 2026 outlook, book the report “ Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 " Aluminium kept outside – what it...
China's 5 per cent GDP in 2025: from de-property pain to green and high-end reconfiguration
In 2025, China delivered around 5 per cent GDP growth, broadly in line with the official target. Behind this headline, the familiar "property + infrastructure" growth model is giving way to a structure driven more by consumption, exports of high-tech and green equipment, and targeted investment in energy and industrial upgrading. For energy and chemical markets, this is already reshaping where volume is created, where it is eroded, and which product chains face the next round of margin pressure. To know more about the global recycled aluminium industry 2026 outlook, book the report “ Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 ". 1 | Three drivers of GDP: the old trilogy, new roles Consumption: policy- and digital-led, not property-led Final consumption accounted for 52 per cent of GDP growth...
