Global aluminium capacity to grow 4.58% with an additional 20.9 Mt coming by end-2026

Though a plethora of speed breakers hit the aluminium industry in recent times, global primary aluminium operating capacity is set to rise sharply. SMM, through one of its recently held webinars, projects an increase of about 20.9 million tonnes by the end of 2026, taking total operating capacity to roughly 77.16 million tonnes, with Indonesia among the largest incremental contributors.

Global primary aluminium production in 2025 grew marginally to approximately 73.78 million tonnes, up from 73.01 million tonnes in 2024, representing a 5-year low in growth rate. China, holding a 45 million tonne capacity cap, operated at nearly 97 per cent capacity (approx. 43.9 million tonnes) in 2025, limiting global growth, with the market facing continued supply deficits.

The analysts break down expected commissioning, resumption and replacement flows by country and single out Indonesia as a major driver of the near-term additions. Alongside, AL Circle research estimates that the global drivers of aluminium demand remain the automotive and construction industries.
The global market is expected to remain in a deficit, potentially around 200 thousand tonnes in 2026, which could rise to 600 thousand tonnes as and when smelters in regions like Mozambique shut down.

Meanwhile, China’s domestic capacity growth is constrained by its compliance ceiling, making much of the supply momentum depend on overseas commissioning. View for 2026 is that price strength will encourage new starts and resumption of idle capacity, but demand growth remains muted in many traditional sectors; the immediate effect is a tighter market in 2026, followed by a shift toward surplus as the new Indonesian projects come on line in 2027 and beyond.

What the numbers imply

The 20.9 Mt addition is not uniformly distributed — more than half of near-term incremental capacity additions come from outside China, with Southeast Asia (led by Indonesian projects) the standout.

Region-wise primary aluminium production between 2021 and 2025 (p) as compiled by AL Circle, measured in thousand tonnes (thousand tonnes), brings forth Asia’s structural dominance and shifting regional balances.

Asia expands steadily from 43.67 million tonnes in 2021 to 45.49 million tonnes in 2022, 47.31 million tonnes in 2023, 49.09 million tonnes in 2024, and 50.06 million tonnes in 2025, remaining the clear growth engine of global supply.

The Middle East also trends upward, rising from 6.44 million tonnes (2021) to 6.7 million tonnes (2022 and 2023), 6.77 million tonnes (2024), and 7.05 million tonnes (2025), reflecting capacity additions and competitive energy positioning.

North America fluctuates at 4.06 million tonnes (2021), 3.9 million tonnes (2022), 4.06 million tonnes (2023), 3.99 million tonnes (2024), and 3.95 million tonnes (2025), hinting towards stagnation. Europe contracts sharply from 4.31 million tonnes (2021) to 3.41 million tonnes (2022) and 3.17 million tonnes (2023) before marginally recovering to 3.20 million tonnes (2024) and 3.22 million tonnes (2025) amid energy market pressures.

Russia & Caspian remain relatively stable at from 4.33 to 4.47 million tonnes across the five years. Africa holds near-flat at 1.6 million-tonne range, while Latin America improves from 1.14 million tonnes to 1.64 million tonnes. Oceania stays broadly steady at 1.8 to 1.9 million tonnes.