AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
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US primary aluminium market volatility - Production declining, imports trimming, while Strait of Hormuz closure adds to supply disruptions
The US primary aluminium market is navigating a challenging phase as domestic production declines and imports tighten under higher tariffs. With smelter output under pressure and external supply becoming less predictable, concerns around supply stability have intensified. Uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large share of Middle Eastern aluminium exports pass, adds another dimension to an already strained supply environment. Production data from 2025 provides a clear snapshot of how US primary aluminium output has moved over the year. During the first nine months of 2025, domestic production reached 497,000 tonnes, compared with 506,000 tonnes during the same period in 2024, reflecting a 1.8 per cent year-on-year decline. Quarterly figures further illustrate the...
Rio Tinto halts Japan aluminium premium negotiations on geopolitical risks
The decision was linked to heightened volatility in aluminium prices triggered by escalating regional tensions, the reports said. Rio Tinto has not publicly commented on the matter or indicated when talks may resume. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 across the value chain The premiums refer to the additional amount buyers agree to pay on top of the cash price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) for physical aluminium deliveries, Mysteel Global learned. Japan, one of Asia's largest aluminium importers, sets a quarterly benchmark known as the Japan premium for primary aluminium shipments to its main ports. On March 2, the LME three-month aluminium contract closed at USD 3,194.5 per tonne, up 1.74 per cent from the previous...
Strait of Hormuz closed, trade in disruptions, and crude oil price is on rise - what do they all mean for the global aluminium market?
The escalating tensions surrounding the US-Israel conflict with Iran percolating down to the entire Middle East have triggered economic shockwaves across the globe. Aluminium and oil sectors are particularly vulnerable, and for obvious reasons. The Middle East is a pivotal region in aluminium production and oil extraction and also controls the world trade of these two commodities through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical maritime shipping routes connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Annually, the Strait of Hormuz handles an export volume of 5.14 million tonnes of primary aluminium, accounting for around 75 per cent of the region’s total production. Additionally, it serves as the passage for 20 to 21 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum...
AI in canmaking: A tool to increase production performance
Artificial Intelligence has reached a maturity level that allows it to generate real analysis and measurable gains in industrial operations. Yet, within the canmaking industry, its adoption remains slow, often due to a combination of cultural resistance, limited digital infrastructure, and the misconception that AI is a futuristic tool rather than an operational necessity. For an industry that operates at extremely high speeds and tight tolerances, AI is no longer optional, it is the next competitive edge. In this article for The Metal Packager, Luiz Siqueira, an independent consultant in industrial management, who previously worked as industrial director/COO at Brasilata, explores how AI can effectively collaborate with the management of can production processes, transforming...
2025 Global bauxite production stands at around 480MT - From Weipa to Paragominas, who’s powered the growth?
中文翻译附于新闻末尾，敬请继续阅读。 Bauxite is the primary raw material used to produce alumina and, ultimately, aluminium - a metal essential to modern infrastructure, transport, packaging and clean energy systems. From power transmission lines to electric vehicles and beverage cans, aluminium’s widespread use begins with stable and sufficient bauxite supply. Against this backdrop, the global bauxite market is entering 2026 with firmer fundamentals. AL Circle research estimates global bauxite production at 475–480 million tonnes in 2025, with output projected to rise by 6 per cent year-on-year in 2026. Demand across infrastructure, mobility, packaging and energy transition sectors continues to underpin this rise. To know more about the global primary aluminium industry 2026 outlook, book the report “...
Global aluminium scrap tracker 2025: A 41.7Mt backbone under pressure as demand rises 3.87%
If 2024 was the year aluminium demand normalised, 2025 is the year scrap becomes the pressure valve. Global cumulative aluminium consumption reached 100.8 million tonnes in 2024, with 28.4 million tonnes supplied by recycled aluminium. That share, already above 28 per cent, is not a marginal contribution. It is a structural layer of the market. And it sits beneath a primary system that is tightening rather than expanding. Primary aluminium production moved from 72.7 million tonnes in 2024 to 73.9 million tonnes in 2025, with a forecast of 75.3 million tonnes in 2026. On paper, that looks like growth. In reality, it is constrained growth. China is approaching its 45 million tonne capacity cap (whereas some speculate the primary production has exceeded 45 million tonnes in 2025 already),...
As global aluminium consumption heads towards 106.8 MT in 2026, What’s driving the growth - and which region leads the way?
What links electric cars, urban skylines, beverage cans and solar farms stretching across a desert? The answer is aluminium, which is steadily tightening its grip on the modern economy, and the numbers tell a story of consistent, broad-based expansion. Global aluminium consumption in the end user sectors rose from 96.92 million tonnes in 2023 to 100.8 million tonnes in 2024 - a year-on-year increase of about 4.0 per cent. The pace is moderate but firm. Demand is projected to reach 104.01 million tonnes in 2025, up another 3.2 per cent, before climbing to 106.8 million tonnes in 2026, a further 2.7 per cent rise. This is not a short-term spike. It reflects a structural shift driven by transportation, construction and the accelerating green transition that is embedding aluminium deeper into...
Strategic trade-off at what cost? Alcoa’s USD38.9M penalty against 18-month bauxite mining allowance lifts concerns
Conflicts between governments and mining giants over environmental protection and conservation are hardly new, and for Alcoa, it stretches back at least a decade. The latest episode has unfolded in Western Australia, where the US-based miner (Alcoa) has clashed with the Australian Department of the Environment over bauxite extraction in the North Jarrah Forest, south of Perth. The dispute has even culminated in Alcoa agreeing to pay USD 38.9 million (AUD 55 million) penalty to clear 2100 hectares of land between 2019 and 2025 in the North Jarrah forest, south of Perth. Environment Minister Murray Watt confirmed on Wednesday, February 18, that this penalty charged is part of a remediation deal and that the money will go into conservation initiatives such as strengthening invasive-species...
Global aluminium extrusion leaders 2025: Top producers with their output capacity and expansion plans
Aluminium extrusion begins with a heated billet pushed through a precision steel die under intense pressure. What comes out can be something as simple as a rod or tube - or as complex as a structural component for an aircraft or a crash-management system in a vehicle. Its appeal lies in a rare mix of strength, light weight and design freedom, which is why extrusion continues to sit at the centre of modern manufacturing. Across Europe, North America, India and the Gulf, extrusion players are adjusting capacity, investing in downstream capabilities and fine-tuning operations to stay aligned with demand that is increasingly specialised rather than purely volume-driven. The top extrusions companies are listed below: Hydro Extrusions Hydro Extrusions is one of the industry’s largest players by...
Global aluminium capacity to grow 4.58% with an additional 20.9 Mt coming by end-2026
中文翻译附于新闻末尾，敬请继续阅读。 Though a plethora of speed breakers hit the aluminium industry in recent times, global primary aluminium operating capacity is set to rise sharply. SMM, through one of its recently held webinars, projects an increase of about 20.9 million tonnes by the end of 2026, taking total operating capacity to roughly 77.16 million tonnes, with Indonesia among the largest incremental contributors. Global primary aluminium production in 2025 grew marginally to approximately 73.78 million tonnes, up from 73.01 million tonnes in 2024, representing a 5-year low in growth rate. China, holding a 45 million tonne capacity cap, operated at nearly 97 per cent capacity (approx. 43.9 million tonnes) in 2025, limiting global growth, with the market facing continued supply deficits. The...
Is the aluminium coffee capsule recycling racing to gain the same traction as the aluminium cans? Everything you need to know…
Recycling of aluminium coffee capsules, in France, is rapidly increasing with the right public awareness and behaviour towards reusing, reflecting both progress and persistent challenges in sorting practices. A survey of 1,977 users taken between November 20 and December 9, 2025, revealed that a quarter of participants make use of aluminium coffee capsules. The Associationpour le Recyclage des Capsules en Aluminium (ARCA), a French initiative, ensures 100 per cent of aluminium coffee capsules are recycled and is looking to measure the factors in aluminium capsule sorting practices for understanding the current challenges and push recycling further. Numbers showing where the recycling of coffee capsules stands A market research analyst from FMI deems that the recycling systems of the...
A 5-year high production of world alumina tells just the opposite story than primary metal – here’s the insider
The world alumina production in 2025 tells markedly different story thanprimary aluminium. While the primary metal clocked the weakest growth rate in recent years, alumina registered the strongest five-year leap. According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), the world alumina production gained 5.07 per cent Y-o-Y in 2025 as against a 1.06 per cent increase in the world primary aluminium output . In the preceding years, the global alumina production growth rate majorly ranged between 2-4 per cent from 2021 to 2024. The acceleration was led overwhelmingly by metallurgical-grade alumina, the feedstock for aluminium smelters. As far as chemical-grade is concerned, it grew by 3.15 per cent in 2025, which, however, was not the highest growth in past five years. In years like 2021...
China to lift domestic coal output to offset Indonesian supply crunch?
On February 9, the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association (CCTDA) revised its forecast for China's coal imports during 2026 to 465 million tonnes, down from 480 million tonnes projected just three weeks earlier. The adjustment was mainly linked to Indonesia's newly-announced plan to slash coal output. China is Indonesia's largest coal importer. To know more about the global recycled aluminium industry 2026 outlook, book the report “ Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 ". Although Jakarta has yet to finalise the policy, authorities have indicated that in an effort to boost state revenue, 2026 production could be cut to around 600 million tonnes from 790 million tonnes in 2025, as Mysteel Global reported. Indonesia expects that paring back supply will cause coal prices to...
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Indonesia’s aluminium industry to be hit by 317% inflated power hunger, with a potential 9.5 GW demand by 2028
Indonesia’s aluminium industry is growing fast, tackling all the stalled sites and upgrading technology at processing units. The RKAB structure has made sure that the ore and the subsequent production process are streamlined. But what about the electrons? Globally, electricity alone accounts for roughly 30-35 per cent of the cost of producing one tonne of primary aluminium. By 2028, Indonesia’s primary aluminium smelting capacity is projected to rise from 0.75 million tonnes per annum in 2024 to 3.13 million tonnes in 2028, a 317 per cent increase in just four years. That expansion is the final leg of Jakarta’s downstream pivot: converting bauxite reserves into integrated alumina and aluminium output. But the decisive constraint is neither geology nor capital. It is power. For the global...
Global EV sales 2025: Volume expansion up 20%, but growth paths diverge sharply by regions
The 2025 global EV sales data point to a newly aligned market than even two years earlier. Growth is no longer limited by consumer acceptance or product availability. Instead, it is being rationed by three quantifiable constraints, such as entry price dispersion of more than EUR 20,000 (USD 23,600) between major regions, infrastructure expansion lagging BEV stock growth by a factor of two in key markets, and abrupt regulation withdrawals that can erase a quarter’s worth of demand in a single quarter. Based on cumulative data through October and full-year estimations, total EV sales in 2025 are estimated at approximately 20-21 million units, up around 20-23 per cent year-on-year compared with 2024, with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) at the core of the expansion. BEV sales across the 40...
With a remarkable capacity of 253.96 GW, India’s power sector advances towards a future in renewable energy
Renewable energy , a key element for a low-carbon future, has immensely flourished in the Indian power landscape. Electrification changes with solar energy, wind energy, hydropower etc., had begun with a nominal capacity of 76.37 GW in 2014, and India made significant progress in upgrading its energy sector in recent years. As of November 2025, the nation has attained a renewable energy capacity of 253.96 GW, denoting an increase of over 228 per cent . It is simultaneously meeting rising electricity demand in India and advancing sustainable practices. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 across the value chain At present, India stands as renewable energy market that is the fourth-largest on the global platform. It reflects the...
Ball Corporation’s 2025 performance: Volume-led growth, margin discipline and a reset capital structure
Ball Corporation exited fiscal 2025 as a structurally leaner aluminium packaging company, delivering double-digit revenue growth, region-wide volume expansion and record free cash flow, while headline earnings declined from an aerospace-inflated 2024 base. The year marked a reset in Ball’s earnings quality, balance-sheet profile and capital allocation framework. On a US GAAP basis, full-year 2025 net sales rose 11.6 per cent year-on-year to USD 13.16 billion, compared with USD 11.80 billion in 2024. Growth accelerated into the year’s close, with fourth-quarter revenue increasing 16.3 per cent Y-o-Y to USD 3.35 billion, reflecting higher shipment volumes and favourable price/mix across regions. Earnings optics distort Y-o-Y comparison Reported net earnings attributable to Ball Corporation...
Feature: China seen moving away from coal supply guarantees amid shifted energy mix
Supply guarantee policy reshapes coal market In May 2021, the Chinese government rolled out the coal supply guarantee policy to address an abrupt coal shortage that had quickly pushed up the fuel prices and caused power cuts in a few areas of the country. The subsequent droughts which dampened hydropower generation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict from 2022 further underscored the national energy security, elevating coal's role in this key task. To know more about the global recycled aluminium industry 2026 outlook, book the report “ Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 ". The policy has been optimized constantly in the following couple of years with broader capacity expansions, wider coverage of coal medium- and long-term contracts, stricter contract fulfillment requirements, limits for...
