China to lift domestic coal output to offset Indonesian supply crunch?
On February 9, the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association (CCTDA) revised its forecast for China's coal imports during 2026 to 465 million tonnes, down from 480 million tonnes projected just three weeks earlier. The adjustment was mainly linked to Indonesia's newly-announced plan to slash coal output. China is Indonesia's largest coal importer.
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Although Jakarta has yet to finalise the policy, authorities have indicated that in an effort to boost state revenue, 2026 production could be cut to around 600 million tonnes from 790 million tonnes in 2025, as Mysteel Global reported. Indonesia expects that paring back supply will cause coal prices to rise and, with them, its export revenue. Uncertainty around quota approvals has already prompted some Indonesian miners to suspend spot export sales.
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