US primary aluminium market volatility - Production declining, imports trimming, while Strait of Hormuz closure adds to supply disruptions

The US primary aluminium market is navigating a challenging phase as domestic production declines and imports tighten under higher tariffs. With smelter output under pressure and external supply becoming less predictable, concerns around supply stability have intensified. Uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large share of Middle Eastern aluminium exports pass, adds another dimension to an already strained supply environment.

Production data from 2025 provides a clear snapshot of how US primary aluminium output has moved over the year. During the first nine months of 2025, domestic production reached 497,000 tonnes, compared with 506,000 tonnes during the same period in 2024, reflecting a 1.8 per cent year-on-year decline.

Quarterly figures further illustrate the trend. In Q1, production stood at 166,000 tonnes in 2025, compared with 172,000 tonnes in 2024, marking a 3.5 per cent decline. Output then remained broadly stable in Q2, reaching 168,000 tonnes in 2025 against 167,000 tonnes in 2024. By Q3, production slipped again to 163,000 tonnes, compared with 167,600 tonnes in the previous year, representing a 2.7 per cent decrease as per USGS data.