If 2024 was the year aluminium demand normalised, 2025 is the year scrap becomes the pressure valve. Global cumulative aluminium consumption reached 100.8 million tonnes in 2024, with 28.4 million tonnes supplied by recycled aluminium. That share, already above 28 per cent, is not a marginal contribution. It is a structural layer of the market. And it sits beneath a primary system that is tightening rather than expanding.

Primary aluminium production moved from 72.7 million tonnes in 2024 to 73.9 million tonnes in 2025, with a forecast of 75.3 million tonnes in 2026. On paper, that looks like growth. In reality, it is constrained growth. China is approaching its 45 million tonne capacity cap (whereas some speculate the primary production has exceeded 45 million tonnes in 2025 already), limiting further domestic expansion. Energy competition is intensifying, with over 800,000 tonnes of smelting capacity offline in Europe since the aftermath of the 2022 geopolitical and power crisis.

Meanwhile, according to AL Circle research, global aluminium markets are projected to remain in deficit in 2026, with a shortfall estimated between 180,000 and 510,000 tonnes, wherein the possibility of Mozambique closure plays a humongous role.

This is the environment in which recycled aluminium demand is projected to grow by 3.87 per cent. Not only because scrap is sustainable, but also because primary aluminium cannot carry the load alone.

For the global aluminium value-chain 2026 outlook, book our exclusive report “Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026"  

The global production vs demand scene

In 2024, the world saw a notable production of low-carbon aluminium, reaching a total of 55.2 million tonnes, primarily fuelled by 41.7 million tonnes sourced from secondary (recycled) aluminium. That figure has acted as the backbone of global low-carbon aluminium supply. Compared with 13.5 million tonnes coming from low-carbon primary routes, recycling has become the ideal path as it is the "low-hanging fruit" of the green transition because it uses approximately 95 per cent less energy than primary production.

Domestic demand for secondary (recycled) aluminium in China was approximately 12.79 million tonnes in 2024, with a strong compound annual growth rate of 13 per cent projected between 2020 and 2025. Some estimates indicate secondary aluminium consumption rose from 12.70 million tonnes in 2024 to 13.35 million tonnes in 2025, a 5.1 per cent year-on-year increase.

In 2024, China's secondary aluminium output was estimated to be around 15.84 million tonnes, representing a massive jump from 8.98 million tonnes in 2015.