Guinea’s bauxite exports outpace production by 3.3%, routed to China - What drives China’s dominance and its market impact?

Guinea possesses a geological advantage few countries can rival. Beneath its terrain lies an estimated 7.4 billion tonnes of bauxite - nearly one-third of the world’s reserves. Yet despite this abundance, very little is refined domestically. Instead, the ore departs largely in raw form, feeding industrial chains abroad, mostly to China. As exports of bauxite continue to rise, a natural question follows: has Guinea’s mining engine begun to move in step with China’s industrial demand?

The numbers increasingly suggest a relationship shaped by consistency rather than coincidence. By 2025, Guinea’s exports to the world are estimated at 190 million tonnes, with China absorbing the majority. In just the first eleven months, roughly 138 million tonnes were shipped there - about 74 per cent of Guinea’s global exports, according to AL Circle research estimation, China Customs data, and the International Trade Council.

Looking back, the trajectory appears even clearer. In 2024, Guinea exported 145 million tonnes, of which 110.2 million tonnes went to China, accounting for 76 per cent of shipments. The dependence was even more pronounced in 2023, when exports reached 127 million tonnes and nearly 111 million tonnes were bound for Chinese buyers, representing an 87.4 per cent share.