AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
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Flat 25% is a myth, US tariffs can go upto 50% (read 225%) for global businesses!
Okay, first things first to be straightened out — the US aluminium and steel tariff implemented is not the only tariff that businesses have to pay while exporting commodities to the nation’s backyard. If a country was paying a 10 per cent tariff to export aluminium goods to the US, they are now not paying 25 per cent but a 35 (10+25) per cent tariff for the good. All of the secrets lie in the word 'additional'! Image for representational purposes only In February 2025, the US administration reinstated and broadened Section 232 tariffs, imposing a flat 25 per cent ad valorem duty on all steel and aluminium imports, effective from March 12, 2025. The tariffs were imposed through Presidential Proclamations 10895 and 10896, signed on February 10, 2025. The updated tariffs now encompass both...
Impact or no impact on India’s $1 billion aluminium exports due to Trump’s tariffs? Discover here…
The ongoing debate about the impact of the Trump administration's tariff increase from 10 per cent to 25 per cent on India's aluminium exports is generating considerable discussion. While various industry leaders offer different viewpoints, it is essential to understand India's current aluminium export relations with the United States. According to the data revealed by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India's aluminium exports to the US were valued at US$946 million during 2023-24, following USD 1,097 million worth of exports in 2022-23. Image source: Vedanta Official trade data suggests India's aluminium export value to the US exceeded USD 1 billion for two consecutive years. In 2021-22, the value reached USD 1.1 billion, marking a sharp rise of 117.5 per cent Y-o-Y, compared to...
Swiss government rolls out energy subsidies to protect domestic steel and aluminium sectors
Switzerland has taken a decisive step (it was really high time!) to safeguard its steel and aluminium industries from mounting electricity costs. The government has announced a subsidy programme wherein the Swiss authorities pledged CHF 37 million (USD 42 million) in financial aid to four key industrial players, including Swiss Steel and Stahl Gerlafingen. The measure, effective from January 2025, will run until the end of 2028, aiming to maintain domestic production and preserve jobs in these energy-intensive sectors. Image for representational purposes only Electricity prices have seen a cosmic soar in the past few years, resulting in immense financial strain on the nation’s steel and aluminium producers, which the recent government initiative is anticipated to cushion. The industry...
Indian aluminium industry pleas for urgent duty relief as it braces for global competition
In a rapidly evolving global metals scene, the Indian aluminium sector has found itself at a critical juncture. The Aluminium Association of India (AAI) has formally called on the government to extend the Remission of Duties or Taxes on Export Products (RoDTEP) scheme for aluminium-producing units operating under Advance Authorisation (AA), Export Oriented Units (EOUs), and Special Economic Zones (SEZs). This intervention, as warned by the industry leaders, is essential to safeguard India’s export competitiveness and domestic manufacturing growth. Image for representational purposes only India ranks as the world’s second-largest producer of aluminium, boasting an impressive annual production capacity of 4.1 million tonnes and witnessing investments exceeding USD 20 billion in domestic...
Hulamin's 2024 earnings struggle despite aluminium can body demand recovery; new strategies in place for 2025
On Monday, March 17, Hulamin, a South African company specialised in producing rolled and extruded aluminium products, reported bearish annual earnings that ended December 31 2024, alleging operational challenges as a primary cause for constraint. According to Hulamin CEO Meganathan Gounder, operational challenges and persistent pricing pressure in certain streams, such as export can stock and standards, offset the earnings improvement despite robust demand in the local market, particularly for can body. He said in a statement , "The 2024 financial year began with promise as market conditions showed significant improvement, particularly in the export segments. Demand recovery brought renewed opportunities, although pricing pressures in certain streams, such as export can stock and...
Global leaders condemn US tariff escalations leading to a deepening trade rift
In a move that has sent shockwaves through the global economic community, US President Donald Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs, notably a 25 per cent levy on steel and aluminium imports. This aggressive stance has elicited a chorus of reactions from world leaders, each grappling with the implications for their respective economies and the broader international trade landscape. Image for representational purposes only Iran is not in agreement to bend or, fend or mend “Won’t negotiate, do whatever the hell you want”, said the Iran President to Trump. “It is unacceptable for us that they (the US) give orders and make threats. I won’t even negotiate with you. Do whatever the hell you want”, state media quoted Masoud Pezeshkian as saying. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on...
Rusal’s 2024 operational and financial performances neither touched by bans nor by surging alumina prices
Russian aluminium boycott by Western countries, drop in product sales, particularly primary aluminium and alloys, and increased alumina costs – nothing could stop Rusal from experiencing a growth in profit in 2024. According to the company’s annual financial and operational results released on Friday, March 14, Rusal’s net profit in 2024 saw a leap of 184.75 per cent Y-o-Y from USD 282 million to USD 803 million, driven by higher prices of aluminium in the global market. The company’s gross profit stood at USD 2,821 million, up by 59.56 per cent from USD 1,768 million. Rusal’s aluminium and alumina production also successfully navigated high alumina costs, recording year-on-year growth of 3.7 per cent and 25.27 per cent. In 2024, the company produced 3.992 million tonnes of aluminium,...
Aluminium cans market poised for robust growth by 2035 at a CAGR of 4.1%
The demand for aluminium in the packaging sector is primarily driven by beverage cans. Key factors fuelling the rising demand for beverage cans include the growing younger consumer base, the introduction of new product variations, and heightened environmental awareness among stakeholders. As per the data shared by Metal Packager, the global aluminium cans market is poised for significant growth. The projection suggests a hike from $61.1 billion in 2024 to $63.2 billion by 2025 and further expands to $94.5 billion by 2035. However, if we see the analysis by AL Circle, published in their report titled , "ALuminium in Packaging: Consumer trends and market dynamics", the global aluminium cans market in 2023 reached US$55.5 billion in 2023, which further escalated to US$58.2 billion in 2024....
“We recognise that exemptions are not easily granted. Despite the challenges, it remains crucial to maintain open communication with US counterparts,” Helin Öcal & Djibril René from European Aluminium
Like us, you may also be concerned about the impact of the US aluminium and steel tariffs on cross-border trade dynamics. With numerous questions and uncertainties in mind, we reached out to Helin Öcal, Trade Manager, and Djibril René, Director of Industry & Market Intelligence at European Aluminium. They were patient in explaining the potential consequences of the 25 per cent tariffs while reassuring us that talks and negotiations would continue and solutions would likely emerge, as the aluminium industry cannot function without international supply chains. They also highlighted that new trade flow patterns would surface if the tariffs persist. It is now crucial to observe how governments and companies choose to respond. Stay tuned to the full interview with Ms Öcal and Mr Djibril René...
EU hits back with a billion-euro counterpunch as persuasive tactics fail to tackle US tariffs
The US steel and aluminium tariff has come into effect from March 12, and in response to it, the European Commission has launched immediate countermeasures on US imports into the European Union (EU). In a decisive retaliation against the US steel and aluminium tariffs, the European Commission has unveiled a package of countermeasures targeting US imports worth up to EUR 26 billion. The move signals a firm stance: if the US chooses to escalate the trade conflict, the EU will respond with equal force. Persuasion strategy tastes the dust President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs, a steep 25 per cent on industrial steel and aluminium imports — took effect on March 12, impacting an estimated USD 28 billion in EU exports. This isn’t entirely unexpected. Trump has long expressed his scepticism of...
Back-and-forth announcements, retaliatory tariffs and uncertain timelines hog US aluminium businesses
A couple of days after implementing the 25 per cent tariff on all aluminium and steel imports, US President Donald Trump exempted neighbouring nations Canada and Mexico from tariffs, but only for commodities included in the trade agreement of 2019 — the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). However, the tariff payments made between March 4 and March 6 — when importers had already paid for goods in transit — will not be refunded, according to White House officials. Image source: https://mr.usembassy.gov/ In a fresh twist, mere hours after threatening to end Canada's exemption, the US has now imposed a staggering 50 per cent tariff just as Canada attempted to negotiate by leveraging energy supply tariffs from them to the US. Official statements regarding the exemption are...
Two contrast sequences set to boost China’s aluminium smelters’ profitability, offsetting tariff losses. What are they?
Good news is on the horizon for China's domestic aluminium smelters, as they are poised to see higher profits due to two contrasting sequences – 1) a drop in alumina prices and 2) an increase in primary aluminium prices driven by increased demand in the solar energy and automobile sectors. According to the Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) survey, China's domestic alumina prices have decreased to RMB 3,357 per tonne (USD 462.36 per tonne) as of March 11 from a record high of RMB 5,770 per tonne (USD795 per tonne) in 2024. Image - Chinalco smelter Going forward, China's average alumina price in the spot market is likely to reach even below RMB 3,000 per tonne, the weakest since the end of 2023, as projected by Zhang Meng, an analyst with AZ China Ltd. This shift in Chinese aluminium raw...
Ardagh's strong 2024 fiscal year, marked by 2% revenue growth, highlights robust can shipments and comprehensive strategy
Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMP), a global leader in supplying sustainable and infinitely recyclable metal beverage cans, has reported strong financial outcomes for 2024, supported by robust operations and a comprehensive sustainability strategy. Image source: Ardagh Metal Packaging Backed by 4 per cent growth in European beverage can shipments and 2 per cent in American shipments, the Luxembourg-headquartered company achieved a revenue of $4,908 million in 2024, up by 2 per cent Y-o-Y from $4,812 million in 2023. The European business unit contributed USD 2,161 million to the Group's annual revenue, while the Americas business unit added USD 2,747 million. Ardagh's Adjusted EBITDA grew by 12 per cent from $600 million to $672 million, resulting in a minimised loss per share. According to the...
Aluminium alloy ingot prices take a wild turn, with record highs in the US and slumping in China
It’s a tale of two markets, wherein aluminium alloy ingot prices in China are stuck in the mud owing to downsized demand, and the US is witnessing an explosive spike, fuelled by tariffs and supply strains. Let’s break down what’s happening on the opposite sides of the globe. China is stuck in a demand drought In late February 2025, aluminium alloy ingot prices in China dipped by 0.4 per cent, dragged down by one relentless factor — weak demand. Market participants report that even though work has resumed across upstream and downstream sectors, overall demand remains painfully soft. The result? A glut in supply coupled with meek demand from across the nation’s businesses ultimately kept the prices firmly range-bound. According to Shanghai Metals Market data, On February 18, secondary...
World alumina production in January 2025 impacted by South America, Europe, Oceania and China
According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) survey, the world alumina production (including chemical-grade alumina) in January 2025 showed a slight month-on-month decline, totalling 12.83 million tonnes versus 12.852 million tonnes in December 2024. Probing into the output A closer look at the monthly alumina production reveals that metallurgical-grade alumina output remained stable at 12.111 million tonnes in January 2025, compared to 12.116 million tonnes in December 2024. Chemical-grade alumina production, on the other hand, registered a 2.31 per cent fall M-o-M from 736,000 tonnes to 719,000 tonnes, leading to a downfall of overall alumina production in January.The world’s daily average metallurgical-grade alumina production in January 2025 was 390,700 tonnes, compared to...
An open question: Is Trump postponing tariff implementation to balance trade and buy some time for critical mineral agreement finalisation?
In a period defined by high-stakes trade battles and international power plays, few episodes have captured as much attention as the Trump administration’s sudden decision to postpone tariffs on Canada and Mexico. With a punchy mix of economic strategy and geopolitical manoeuvring, this move has been dissected from every angle—from trade negotiations to resource security and even to controversial diplomatic meetings with Ukraine. In a clear-cut policy shift, the Trump administration announced that the planned tariffs on key imports from Canada and Mexico, tariffs initially slated to hit the markets with full force, would be delayed. Official statements at the time emphasised that this postponement was meant to provide room for further trade negotiations and to secure better terms for US...
US aluminium premiums spike to a record $900/t, fueling hope for Novelis’ bottom line boost. But how?
The soaring price premiums for aluminium on the physical market in the United States are believed to benefit Novelis, the US subsidiary of Mr Kumar Mangalam Birla-led Hindalco Industries. A Reuters report on March 5 highlighted that aluminium premium prices in the US physical market surged to a record high of $900 per tonne, up nearly 60 per cent since the start of 2025, on the account of looming threats of 25 per cent tariffs on aluminium and steel imports by the Trump administration. This increase in the so-called Midwest premium over the LME prices is set to boost Novelis' bottom line. Utsav Verma, Head of Research - Institutional Equities, Choice Broking also confirmed that the immediate impact of aluminum tariffs by the US could be positive for Novelis, as the spike in US aluminium...
Here’s what GIADEC’s new CEO thinks about Ghana’s integrated aluminium industry and the impact of the bauxite export ban
Ghana Integrated Aluminium Development Corporation (GIADEC) is striving to become a leading contributor to the country's economic development under the leadership of its newly appointed acting Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Mr Reindorf Twumasi Ankrah. Image source: LinkedIn (GIADEC) Mr Twumasi Ankrah, GIADEC's new CEO and a distinguished lawyer with extensive experience across multiple legal domains, is prepared to embrace a new challenge to add further value to the work of his predecessor and position GIADEC as a leading force for national advancement by supporting and advancing the indigenous aluminium value chain – the vision with which an act of Parliament established GIADEC. Mr Ankrah addressed the staff durbar this week, meant to welcome the new CEO of the Corporation, by sharing...
