AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
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China tightens regulations on new alumina plant construction to address overcapacity
With an agenda of counteracting persistent overcapacity and subsequently stabilising global alumina prices, China has come up with a bunch of measures (of course, in a series) aimed at curtailing the rapid expansion of alumina production. The new directives, outlined in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s (MIIT) Action Plan for the High-Quality Development of the Aluminium Industry (2025–2027), extensively highlight the need to shift the country’s approach to managing its aluminium supply chain. Policy overview and strategic objectives The latest policy mandates that firms who are planning to establish new alumina projects must secure adequate bauxite supply to ensure a balanced and sustainable growth model. This requirement is a successor to the earlier guidance...
“Recycled aluminium is not available in large volumes. Hence, virgin aluminium will be in demand, especially in a country like India, where, today, scrap has not reached that level of volume,” Vikram Handa, Managing Director, Epsilon Carbon Pvt Ltd
Vikram Handa established Epsilon Group in 2010, a prominent industrial conglomerate dedicated to advancing the global carbon black and battery materials sector. With a mission to decarbonise economies and foster cleaner technologies, the group has distinguished itself through its subsidiaries, Epsilon Carbon and Epsilon Advanced Materials. Under his stewardship, a state-of-the-art, fully integrated 320,000 TPA specialty carbon plant was inaugurated in 2017 in Bellary, Karnataka. The company later expanded into the Carbon Black segment, launching operations with a 115,000 TPA production capacity. This Integrated Carbon Complex boasts a 10 per cent lower carbon footprint than its global counterparts and operates as a zero water discharge facility. With aggressive expansion plans, Epsilon...
Certification from BIS now mandatory for certain aluminium products
The Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS), India’s National Standards Body, has reportedly mandated certain products, mostly belonging to the aluminium industry, to adopt BIS standards and obtain licenses to sell products in the domestic market. BIS plays a crucial role in product certification schemes, offering third-party assurance of quality, safety, and reliability to consumers. Although the BIS certification scheme is typically voluntary, the Central Government has made it mandatory for certain products to obtain licenses in the interest of consumer protection, environmental safety, fair trade practices, and national security. This mandate comes after two consecutive raids by BIS at aluminium casting factory , Ibex Engineering Pvt. Ltd. in Karnataka, and at aluminium alloy ingot...
Is foil import from China on track to tank post India’s anti-dumping duty enforcement?
In a calculated move to tackle the overstuffing of the ‘material in question’ in its domestic aluminium industry, the Indian government imposed a provisional anti-dumping duty on aluminium foil imports from China. Effective from March 17, 2025, this measure levies duties ranging between USD 619 and USD 873 per tonne on aluminium foil up to 80 microns in thickness, with the exception of foil below 5.5 microns intended for non-capacitor applications. This action follows the Directorate General of Trade Remedies’ (DGTR) preliminary findings, which concluded that the influx of low-priced Chinese aluminium foil has inflicted material injury on India’s domestic producers. The DGTR’s investigation revealed that Chinese imports had seized nearly 30 per cent of the Indian market despite the...
Japan’s Q2 aluminium premium crashes to five-quarter-low as US tariff intervenes trade
After an initial aggressive uptick at the beginning of March, the premium for Japanese aluminium’s outbound trade during the second Quarter of 2025 (April to June) has reportedly crashed to USD 182 per tonne, which is clearly a 20 per cent decrease from the past quarter (Q1’25), reveals six sources involved in the pricing discussions. The downturn in premiums is the first quarterly drop in the recent five quarters, USD 46 down from January to March, with a premium of USD 228 per tonne. Aluminium has turned out to clasp a premium below initial offers from global production houses, which ranged from USD 245 per tonne to USD 260 per tonne, now raising the question of why such a premium fell. On March 27, Platts evaluated the CIF main Asian ports (MAP) spot P1020 aluminium premium at USD 173...
Value of India’s engineering goods exports, including aluminium, declines. Are US tariff exemptions a last resort to mend it?
India's engineering goods exports experienced a decline in value during February 2025, marking the first monthly fall since April 2024, affected by slower exports of aluminium, steel, copper, and iron. According to the Engineering Export Promotion Council (EEPC), India's export value stood at $9.4 billion in the specific month, compared to $9.08 billion a year ago. That reflected an 8.62 per cent decline, bringing the past nine-month growth streak to an end. However, despite the monthly fall in February, cumulative export value for the past ten months continued to show growth, with a moderate year-on-year increase of 7.98 per cent. Interestingly, the export value for the period from April to February FY2025 reached an all-time high, amounting to $105.85 billion versus $98.03 billion...
Tariffs bite: Businesses choose to sway away from aluminium, counting the cost
Aluminium businesses, brace yourselves as your base metal commodities are getting pricier, and it’s not just a minor blip. The latest round of US tariffs on steel and aluminium imports is sending shockwaves through industries that rely on these materials. From roofing to manufacturing, businesses, as well as homeowners, are starting to feel the pinch. And, with no exemptions in sight, the future looks even tougher for those loyal to aluminium. Image Source: https://www.rcmindustries.com/ A roof too far? Here’s why homeowners are ditching metal roofing Metal roofing has always been a premium choice, known for its durability and sleek aesthetics. But now, thanks to the US government’s 25 per cent tariff on imported steel and aluminium, the cost is becoming prohibitively high. The numbers...
Aluminium consumption climbs steadily, indicating sustained market strength
Global aluminium consumption is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.33 per cent, increasing from 101 million tonnes in 2024 to 119 million tonnes by 2030. This expansion will be largely fuelled by rising demand across the transportation, electrical, and consumer durables sectors. Post-COVID, aluminium demand has surged, driven by its growing adoption across key sectors such as packaging and automotive. In packaging, aluminium’s exceptional properties—particularly its ability to extend shelf life—have made it the material of choice for manufacturers. Meanwhile, the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) has further accelerated aluminium consumption in the automotive industry. The shift from stainless steel to aluminium is a game-changer, as its superior...
Q4 2024 sees over 30% surge in US bauxite imports, yet annual decline persists
According to the US Geological Survey, the United States experienced a 6.31 per cent decline in crude and dried bauxite imports in 2024, despite a 31.58 per cent year-on-year increase in the fourth quarter. Year-on-year decreases in the second and third quarters primarily drove the annual drop. Total imports for the year amounted to 2.08 million tonnes, down from 2.22 million tonnes in 2023. While fourth-quarter imports rose from 380,000 to 500,000 tonnes, the increase was insufficient to offset the yearly decline. Additionally, imports in the fourth quarter saw a quarter-on-quarter drop of 53,000 tonnes, or 9.58 per cent, further contributing to the overall decrease in import volumes. After a year-on-year increase in the first quarter, with imports rising from 462,000 tonnes to 501,000...
China's carbon trading market resurrected after eight-year hiatus, poised for further industry inclusions
China has unveiled an ambitious agenda to extend its carbon trading system to encompass the steel, cement, and aluminium smelting sectors. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has announced that this expansion will incorporate an additional 1,500 enterprises, enabling them to procure credits to offset their CO₂-equivalent emissions. Image for referential purposes only This extension will elevate the total volume of carbon dioxide regulated under the trading system to 8 billion tonnes—encompassing over 60 per cent of China’s total emissions. Ministry spokesperson Pei Xiaofei revealed these developments during a briefing on Wednesday. As one of the world’s foremost exporters of goods subject to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), China is projected to export approximately...
European foil market in 2024: Recovers from weak demand and high inflation
The European aluminium foil industry has staged an impressive recovery in 2024 after a tumultuous 2023, marked by weak demand and soaring inflation. According to the latest data from the European Aluminium Foil Association (EAFA), total deliveries surged to 892,500 tonnes, a robust 7.3 per cent increase from the previous year’s 831,700 tonnes. While the industry is far from the pre-pandemic heights, signs of resilience and stabilisation are evident, driven primarily by a resurgence in packaging demand. Key factors for growth in 2024 The key driver of this resurgence has been a marked uptick in demand from the packaging sector, which helped balance the industry’s recovery. Deliveries within Europe rose by 7.8 per cent, while exports outside the EAFA region recorded a modest increase of 3.5...
‘White’ hydrogen reserve uncovered — a low-cost potential for green energy transition
In a serendipitous turn of events, French scientists have uncovered what is believed to be the world’s largest deposit of natural, or ‘white’, hydrogen beneath the Lorraine region. This monumental discovery holds the potential to revolutionise the global energy landscape, positioning France at the vanguard of the burgeoning hydrogen economy. Image for referential purposes only The revelation emerged during research conducted by the GeoRessources laboratory and the French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS). A massive reserve of natural hydrogen was found beneath Folschviller’s soil in the Moselle region. The finding is being praised as a game-changing juncture in the clean-energy resolution. As per a recently released report, researchers from the GeoRessources laboratory and...
Editor’s Pick: The ultimate game-changers brought to you consolidated from Feb’s invention scene
Aluminium might hold the atomic number 13, but with a lot of supportive data in my pocket, I can confidently say that in the world of tech and innovation, it’s a certified lucky charm. As the past decade as well as the century has witnessed, this lightweight powerhouse has been the cornerstone in societal development — from the construction to the transport segment and beyond, making breakthroughs that are sleek, sustainable, and downright futuristic. As we progress on the path of 2025, the base metal has already made its way into sculpting jaw-dropping architecture for high-speed transport and next-gen electronics. Aluminium is at the heart of the revolution, and here’s a selective array of innovations and progression updates that I would like to share with the world that took place in...
World primary aluminium production sees limited growth in two months, weighed down by February’s drop
In the first two months of 2025, the world's primary aluminium production represented a year-on-year increase of 0.85 per cent, amounting to 11.88 million tonnes, which was significantly offset by declines M-o-M, according to the International Aluminium Institute's data. Following January when the world output was 6.235 million tonnes, slightly down by 0.30 per cent from 6.254 million tonnes, the production in February reached 5.645 million tonnes, further down by 9.46 per cent M-o-M. Fewer operation days likely contributed to the decline, even though daily production slightly increased from 201,100 tonnes in January to 201,600 tonnes. Alongside, reduced output in some of the primary aluminium-producing regions played a critical role in the overall drop for February. Even on a...
Meeting scheduled: India to negotiate before US reciprocal tariff commissions on April 2
India has taken a step ahead to negotiate terms with the United States this week as the date for reciprocal tariff implementation, as announced by the US federal government, is approaching soon. To make things official of the proposed bilateral trade agreement (BTA), the teams from both nations are going to make BTA the key focus of a scheduled meeting within the next couple of days. With such an agenda, a team of United States (US) officials, headed by Assistant Trade Representative Brendan Lynch, are coming to New Delhi to have talks with their counterparts in India. Image Source: https://www.asiainglobalaffairs.in/ Both parties seek to furnish the first phase of a mutually worthwhile arrangement by fall 2025. The meetings are organised a week ahead of the United States reciprocal...
AL Circle x CETIZION Verifica: Internet of Things is indeed a strong pillar of sustainability and ESG initiatives
AL Circle presents an enriching conversation with Ganga C Sharma, Managing Director & CEO of CETIZION Verifica Pvt Ltd, wherein he shares his personal views on the sustainability practices of the Indian and global aluminium industry. According to Mr Sharma, India is leading by example, and the world is closely watching its activities and following its footsteps. He says IoT plays a critical role in sustainability and ESG initiatives, and also offers an exciting outlook on CBAM, describing it as a balance of risk and opportunities, depending on how the companies adapt to the new regulation. To know more of his unique and valuable insights, read the full interview. AL Circle: Could you please provide a brief overview of your company and the services you offer? Ganga C Sharma: Cetizion...
The sanctions gamble: Who wins, who loses in the continent’s economic battles?
The contemporary landscape of international relations is increasingly defined by the deployment of economic sanctions. Once considered a blunt instrument of last resort, these measures have become a favoured tool for nations seeking to exert influence, punish transgressions, or compel policy shifts. Yet, the efficacy and broader ramifications of these economic straitjackets (specifically the European Union’s sanction upon Russia) are far from straightforward. Image for representational purposes only Today, we delve into the intricate world of EU sanction, exploring their genesis, the multifaceted impacts they inflict on both the targeted and the imposing, and the swirling debates that question their very purpose and morality. Unmasking the sanction: origins and objectives The imposition...
GCC imposes anti-dumping duties on Chinese aluminium imports to limit $1 billion foreign goods
More anti-dumping duties are on the way to Chinese aluminium products. After India, now the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states are imposing duties on China for flooding their countries with aluminium products at unfair prices. The news came on Thursday, March 20, after the GCC Ministerial Committee, composed of industry ministers, announced the move officially. This decision follows the recommendation from the GCC Permanent Committee for Anti-Injurious Practices in International Trade to impose import tariffs on aluminium alloy products originating from China. The duties being levied on Chinese aluminium products include flat or grained rectangular (including square) aluminium alloy sheets, plates, coils, strips, coated or coloured, with a 2-8 mm thickness. Why this move? The growing...
