“We recognise that exemptions are not easily granted. Despite the challenges, it remains crucial to maintain open communication with US counterparts,” Helin Öcal & Djibril René from European Aluminium
Like us, you may also be concerned about the impact of the US aluminium and steel tariffs on cross-border trade dynamics. With numerous questions and uncertainties in mind, we reached out to Helin Öcal, Trade Manager, and Djibril René, Director of Industry & Market Intelligence at European Aluminium. They were patient in explaining the potential consequences of the 25 per cent tariffs while reassuring us that talks and negotiations would continue and solutions would likely emerge, as the aluminium industry cannot function without international supply chains. They also highlighted that new trade flow patterns would surface if the tariffs persist. It is now crucial to observe how governments and companies choose to respond.
Stay tuned to the full interview with Ms Öcal and Mr Djibril René to know their opinions on US tariffs.
AL Circle: What impact is anticipated on the European Union’s economy following the hefty 25 per cent tariffs imposed on its exports to the United States?
Helin Öcal & Djibril René: The EU and the US have built deeply intertwined aluminium supply chains over many years, creating strong partnerships. A 25 per cent tariff could weaken cross-border investments and reduce EU aluminium exports to the U.S.
We are also concerned that with aluminium scrap exempt from US tariffs, more EU scrap will flow to the US, further worsening the leakage problem for European producers.
In addition, aluminium products previously intended for the US market might be exported to Europe instead, putting additional pressure on our producers. There is a genuine risk that aluminium originally destined for the US may be diverted to the EU, potentially putting European producers' competitiveness at stake. Although the precise scale and timing of these inflows remain uncertain, European Aluminium stresses that trade measures should focus on addressing proven unfair practices rather than imposing blanket tariffs on all imports.
However, it’s still early to assess the full economic impact.
Much depends on how quickly and constructively both sides can come together to mitigate disruptions, address root causes of global market imbalances, and keep supply chains functioning smoothly.
AL Circle: Where do you intend to redirect the aluminium that you used to supply to the United States?
Helin Öcal & Djibril René: More than 70 per cent of EU exports of aluminium products (HS 76) to the US are related to three products i.e. sheets (43 per cent), foil (19 per cent) and bars, rods, profiles (10 per cent). For these 3 products, the US is the largest market destination (outside of Europe i.e. EU27+UK+EFTA), representing 30 per cent of EU exports.
While the European aluminium industry seeks continuity of supply to US partners, tariffs could force some European producers to explore other markets or concentrate sales within Europe. Maintaining access to the US market remains the preferred option.
AL Circle: The United States’ end product manufacturers have warned of increasing retail prices to offset tariff impacts. Does this indicate they will continue importing aluminium from the EU?
Helin Öcal & Djibril René: Many US downstream manufacturers rely on imports, including European aluminium, because domestic supply cannot always meet their needs. As a result, some may continue importing—even if that means passing along additional costs to consumers. Nevertheless, if tariffs remain and become too prohibitive, manufacturers may eventually explore alternatives, such as different suppliers or substituting materials. Ultimately, each company must balance performance, cost, and reliability in determining its sourcing strategy.
AL Circle: Australia thinks securing US tariff exemptions would be challenging this year. Do you share the same view, or will you continue negotiating with the Trump administration?
Helin Öcal & Djibril René: We recognise that exemptions are not easily granted. Despite the challenges, it remains crucial to maintain open communication with US counterparts. We encourage the European Commission to keep pursuing constructive talks to avoid long-term damage to the transatlantic aluminium relationship.
In the meantime, we continue to engage with the EU Commission to address the three main challenges caused by these new 232 Tariffs i.e. i) access to the US market, ii) possible redirection of flows to EU, iii) exacerbation of the EU scrap leakage problem.
AL Circle: Do you anticipate an increase in aluminium inflows into the European Union’s domestic market due to US tariffs imposed on several countries globally?
Helin Öcal & Djibril René: There is indeed a risk that aluminium initially intended for the US could be redirected to the EU, potentially threatening the competitiveness of European producers. While it is difficult to predict the exact magnitude or timing of such inflows, European Aluminium emphasises that trade measures should target demonstrably unfair practices rather than imposing broad tariffs on all imports. Such an approach helps protect responsible producers and maintains a level playing field in the global market.
AL Circle: How do you foresee global trade dynamics shifting with the introduction of 25 per cent US tariffs on aluminium and steel imports?
Helin Öcal & Djibril René: Tariffs have a real impact, causing disruptions and prompting businesses to reconsider where and how they source materials. Over time, new trade flow patterns may emerge, but much depends on how governments and companies choose to react. European Aluminium believes that targeted measures against genuine market distortions are more effective than blanket tariffs, which can trigger retaliatory actions and damage long-standing partnerships.
On top, there are still many uncertainties regarding the level of the specific tariffs for each country. For example, some countries like Australia have asked an exemption, and there are pending discussions between the US and Canada / Mexico in the framework of the US – Mexico – Canada agreement.
One thing is sure: businesses don’t like uncertainties
AL Circle: Do you believe the tariffs will prompt EU countries to invest in establishing new aluminium plants in the US domestic market, as the Trump administration desires?
Helin Öcal & Djibril René: The US administration wants to boost domestic production, but establishing large-scale aluminium plants involves significant time and capital. It is not typically a short-term fix. While certain companies may consider such investments, many factors—beyond tariffs alone—shape decisions on where and how to produce aluminium. In the long run, European Aluminium believes that transatlantic cooperation is key to preserving industry stability.
Out of this crisis, we hope that the EU will also take this opportunity to strengthen its own aluminium value chain from the metal supply (i.e. primary, recycling) to the semi-transformation (e.g. rolling, extrusions). On top, aluminium has also been recognised by the NATO as a critical raw material for defence.
AL Circle: Do you think the United States is now backing Russia to fill the potential gap in the low-carbon aluminium market caused by tariffs on the EU?
Helin Öcal & Djibril René: We have not seen any indication that the US is actively favouring Russia or any other country. Moreover, the US still maintains an import ban on Russia and imposes 200 per cent tariffs on indirect aluminium imports containing Russian metal.
