AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
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Alcoa braces for USD 90 million costs due to US tariff – is it a sign that domestic businesses are not immune to the impact of tariff?
Alcoa, the Pittsburgh-based aluminium giant, is preparing to absorb up to USD 90 million costs this quarter (Q2) as a result of tariff impact. Yes, you read that correctly! Despite being a US-headquartered aluminium manufacturer, the company is preparing for the financial hit from these tariffs. And it doesn’t end there. Alcoa is expecting this steep cost after posting a strong performance in Q1, with a double net income of USD 548 million. The truth is Alcoa has already experienced a cost of USD 20 million since the tariff being implemented by the US government. Why? Because Alcoa’s 70 per cent of the aluminium production takes place in Canada, which is now subject to Donald Trump’s 25 per cent import duty. Alcoa’s CEO William Oplinger analysed that this quarterly cost equates to an...
“Aluminium billets, primarily used in construction and transportation, are highly sought-after value-added products,” Fabio Martins, CEO – Billets, Vedanta Aluminium
Fábio Martins is the CEO of Billets at Vedanta Aluminium, India’s largest aluminium producer and a key player in the global metals sector. With over 25 years of experience in operations, sales, and strategic management across the aluminium value chain, Fábio brings deep industry expertise and a proven track record of operational excellence, business turnaround, and stakeholder engagement. Prior to joining Vedanta Aluminium, Fábio held several senior leadership roles at Alcoa, where he was most recently Operations Director for the Poços de Caldas site in Brazil. He was instrumental in leading transformative projects, including a $60 million transition to dry residue management and a $100 million impoundment de-characterisation initiative, both of which were delivered in close coordination...
Detailed report: Why LME approved Hong Kong warehouses over Mainland China
In a recent development for the London Metal Exchange’s (LME’s) Asian strategy, the announcement of its approval of the first four warehouse facilities in Hong Kong in April 2025 floated in the trading market. These newly approved warehouses, operated by a trio of company pairs, are slated to commence storing LME-warranted metal within three months of the announcement. This expansion marks a notable step for the LME, particularly considering its acquisition by Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) in 2012. This AI-generated image is for referential purposes only The central question that arises from this decision is why the LME, who facilitate trillions of dollars in transactions annually across numerous approved metals, including aluminium, copper, and zinc, chose Hong Kong, a...
Trump’s aluminium tariff-induced global trade tensions will curtail economic growth: IMF
On April 2, 2025, President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs, including on aluminium, from the White House Rose Garden. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on April 22 that these tariffs threaten global growth. The IMF lowered its global economic forecast due to rising trade tensions and policy unpredictability. Image for representational purposes only Trump’s baseline 10 per cent tariff on aluminium and additional 245 per cent duties on China have triggered global concern. Though some tariffs are paused, such as the “reciprocal” ones on major trade partners like the EU, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan until July for bilateral deal talks, key sectors, including aluminium and steel, remain affected. The IMF highlighted that these moves could unsettle trade flows and undercut...
Primary aluminium production in Q1 2025 grows but at a lower rate– factors uncovered here
The International Aluminium Institute has revealed the world’s primary aluminium production for the first quarter of 2025, highlighting a year-on-year increase of 1.34 per cent. But if compared to the growth rate of last year, it is about a 3 per cent less. In Q1 2024, the world primary aluminium production was 17.869 million tonnes, up by 4.31 per cent from 17.131 million tonnes during the corresponding period of the previous year. Let’s delve into why global primary aluminium production experienced a slower growth rate in Q1 2025, examine the total output during this period, and assess whether it aligns with the industry’s outlook for the year. 1. Q1 2025 production In the first quarter of 2025, the world primary aluminium production was 18.108 million tonnes, compared to 17.869 million...
Driving towards a fossil-free tomorrow with world’s first electrified highway in Sweden, charging EVs on the go
Imagine driving an electric vehicle (EV) without worrying about finding a charging station or running out of battery mid-journey. This vision is fast becoming a reality, thanks to an ambitious project in Sweden. It’s not just a technological breakthrough—it’s a bold step toward a fossil-free tomorrow. The country is building the world’s first permanent electrified highway, where EVs will charge seamlessly as they drive. Set to be completed by 2025, this game-changing e-motorway promises to eliminate range anxiety, transforming the way we think about electric mobility and paving the way for a sustainable, emission-free future. “If we electrify 20,000km of highways, that will definitely be enough. The distance between two highways is never more than 45km, and electric cars can already...
Feasibility check: Strategy of powering Aussie aluminium production firms with nuclear energy nothing but a theory?
A recent study has found that three out of Australia’s four aluminium smelters face a serious risk of closure under proposed shifts in energy policy, a development that could shake the entire nation’s economy and threaten thousands of jobs. Why such a speculation? The federal opposition has pledged to construct seven nuclear power plants across five states if elected, arguing that their modelled plan could be 44 per cent cheaper than Labor’s renewable roadmap. This AI-generated image is for representational purposes only So, what could unfold if the Coalition forms government and pushes this nuclear initiative forward? Australia’s aluminium smelters are among the highest industrial energy users in the country. The Tomago smelter in New South Wales alone accounts for 12 per cent of the...
America’s last alumina refinery suffers hard: Here’s how US trade policies hit home hard
In the heart of Gramercy, Louisiana, a silent struggle unfolds. Atlantic Alumina’s refinery, the last remaining alumina plant in the United States, is grappling with the heavy toll of shifting trade policies on metal, cars and dozens of foreign exporters. What was once a thriving symbol of industrial resilience now stands at the crossroads of uncertainty and with it, the lives of more than 550 workers hang in the balance. Image source: Atalco Atlantic Alumina, or Atalco, is the last operating alumina refinery in the US, between New Orleans and Baton Rouge. With 550 workers, the plant processes Jamaican bauxite into alumina, a white, sugar-like compound essential for making primary aluminium. Atalco supplies nearly 40 per cent of the nation's alumina needs. But despite its critical role,...
Q2 alumina prices likely to walk a rocky road with market turbulence and supply surge on the rise
The global alumina market has endured a dramatic roller‑coaster in early 2025, witnessing a severe price slump in the first quarter and a raft of fresh supply hitting the market in the recent weeks. While analysts now eye a price floor in coming months, forecast revisions evidently highlights the fragility of near-term price momentum. This AI-generated image is for representational purposes only As of April 16, the benchmark price for Australian alumina stood at USD 347.50 per tonne on a FOB (Free on Board) basis — the price that covers the cost of transporting the goods to the port and loading them onto the ship, with the buyer covering the cost from that point onwards. This price point represents nearly a 50 per cent drop from where it stood at the beginning of January. In comparison,...
India revives its ‘zero-for-zero’ push with US betwixt dangling BTA prospect
Just when we thought ‘zero-for-zero’ was gathering dust in the diplomatic archives, India is breathing new life into the idea, and this time, the country is refusing to take no for an answer. Indian industry is rallying for tariff-free trade on aluminium, steel, and autos through a proposed Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) with the United States. And aluminium, the often-overlooked metal powering everything from EVs to skyscrapers, is quietly hoping for its moment in the sun. Image Source: https://www.cfr.org/ According to a publication by India’s Ministry of External Affairs, officials suggested that the zero-for-zero offer could potentially aid in fast-tracking the proposed BTA between the bipartisan, which may, in turn, pave the way for rolling back the 26 per cent reciprocal tariff on...
“Minimalism and openness are key design trends on every customer’s checklist,” Ajay Balakrishna, Founder and CEO of Schon Doorways
Ajay Balakrishna, Founder and CEO of Schon Doorways, is an engineer by training, a passionate designer at heart and an entrepreneur by choice. With a deep-rooted passion for design innovation and engineering excellence, Ajay brings over a decade of experience in the architectural and building materials industry. In a chat with AL Circle, the business persona divulges about his inspiration, innovation and beyond. AL Circle: Let’s start by asking what inspired you to venture into the world of premium aluminium doors and windows and how the idea for Schon Doorways first came to life. Was there a particular gap in the market that caught your attention? Ajay Balakrishna: We observed that there is a gap in the Indian market, and that is precisely what became our inspiration for Schon Doorways....
US aluminium at a glance: Primary output down 10%, scrap recovery up 5%, surplus 1.37 million tonnes & much more
The United States’ 2024 aluminium market has further demonstrated a clear shift from primary to secondary sector, as evidenced by a Y-o-Y drop in primary metal production and a rise in scrap recovery. According to the United States Geological Survey, the country’s primary aluminium production recorded a decline of 9.92 per cent from 750,000 tonnes in 2023 to 675,600 tonnes in 2024, while its scrap recovery increase by 4.83 per cent from 3.31 million tonnes to 3.47 million tonnes. Monthly production trend While analysing the monthly trend this year, it is observed that the United States primary aluminium production ranged between 52,000 and 57,000 tonnes, following a peak in the first month of the year amounting to 63,000 tonnes. Similarly, scrap recovery was mostly around 292,000 to...
UK aerosol industry sees resurgence in 2024 after a three-year stagnation
The United Kingdom aerosol industry marked a return to growth phase in 2024 after a three-years declining notion, with total production rising to 1.45 billion units, a 1.97 per cent increase over 2023. After a prolonged period of stagnation between 2021 and 2023, where production hovered around 1.44 billion units, this uptick signals renewed momentum for the sector. The figures, released by the British Aerosol Manufacturers Association (BAMA), are based on contributions from UK-based fillers and are considered a reliable snapshot of current market activity. Alike world trend, UK’s personal care aerosols continue to dominate, accounting for approximately 75 per cent of all fillings in 2024. According to retail sales data from Kantar World Panel, this category saw a 3 per cent increase over...
Trump government’s response to India at WTO: 'Tariff is for security, not safeguards'
In response to India’s complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on April 11 , labelling the US tariffs as safeguard measures, the United States countered by asserting that the tariffs were imposed on national security grounds, not as safeguards. Image source: Wikipedia The Trump administration office further justified its tariff move by stating that it was carried out under Section 232 of US trade law, which authorises the President to restrict imports that threaten national and economic security. The US government said, “The President imposed the tariffs on steel and aluminium pursuant to Section 232, under which the President determined that tariffs are necessary to adjust imports of steel and aluminium articles that threaten to impair the national security of the US.” Let’s know...
India’s fertile ground for low-carbon aluminium draws Rio Tinto’s next green project - here’s a detailed look at it
India’s expanding renewable energy capacity and strong government support for sustainable manufacturing are drawing increased interest from global companies, including Rio Tinto. On Thursday, April 17, the global mining giant Rio Tinto announceda collaboration with energy transition solutions provider AMG Metals & Materials (AMG M&M) to develop an integrated low-carbon aluminium project in southern India. Rio Tinto and AMG M&M have reportedly signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU), which states both parties will jointly assess the feasibility of the project that will potentially produce up to 1 million tonnes of primary aluminium in a year and 2 million tonnes of alumina, both powered by 1.8–2.0 GW of solar and wind energy backed by pumped hydro storage, translating to 7–8 GW of clean...
Here’s why China’s aluminium trade confidence, despite repeated tariff lashes and export dip, is what it is…
In a recent comment, He Zhigang, Deputy General Manager of Henan Mingtai Al. Industrial Co. said that China’s producers are “numb to tariffs,” citing years of trade restrictions imposed by Western countries. He added that demand for the metal produced in China remains strong due to its competitiveness. “It just needs a bit of time to overcome this round of anti-dumping from the US,” Mr Zhigang said at the industry conference. But, where does such an upper-hand statement stem from? As a matter of fact, the numbers are volatile when it comes to trade (especially exports) for the Asian country. Image courtesy: The Project Twins (Image for representational purposes only) According to the data provided by the International Aluminium Institute, the estimated total primary aluminium production...
Tariff is a pro for North America’s optimistic demand projection for 2025; 2024 already shows a 3.4% growth, setting the stage right
North America (US and Canada), which is currently embroiled in the ongoing trade war, is otherwise a key aluminium market, with demand consistently reaching millions of pounds annually, primarily driven by semi-fabricated and mill product. Although the demand decreased in 2023 to 26,087 million pounds (11.83 million tonnes), it rebounded the next year to 26,969 million pounds (12.24 million tonnes), marking an annual growth of 3.4 per cent. The rise in demand was also evident in aluminium shipments, which increased in 2024 by 3.2 per cent Y-o-Y from 22,987 million pounds to 23,729 million pounds. According to the Aluminum Association’s report, the demand for aluminium semi-fabricated and mill product rose by 3.4 per cent, led by key sectors like automotive, packaging, and sustainable...
Trump’s 245% tariffs (read 270%) on Chinese imports mean evident global trade disruption
In a bold move that has reignited trade tensions, former US President Donald Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs of up to 245 per cent on a wide range of Chinese imports. With the initial 25 per cent remaining in place, the total tariff to be paid by the aluminium and steel exporters from China shoots up to 270 per cent. This sharp escalation is nothing but a further intensification of the US-China trade war and is already sending ripples through global markets, manufacturing, and supply chains, with implications that extend well beyond the Pacific. Image for representational purposes only The decision, formalised through a White House fact sheet, targets critical Chinese exports, including those linked to high-tech industries. Among the materials affected are gallium, germanium, and...
