AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
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Tariff fallout: US aluminium trade trends down with imports dampened by 12% in February 2025
There was widespread speculation that US aluminium imports might surge ahead of the 25 per cent tariff implementation on March 12, driven by businesses rushing to bring in shipments before the duty took effect. At the same time, concerns mounted over the potential impact of the tariffs on aluminium inflows, particularly from Canada, the United States’ largest supplier, accounting for 57 per cent of its total aluminium imports. Major American producers like Alcoa, which manufactures 70 per cent of its aluminium in Canada, also raised serious alarms about the possible consequences of the policy. Now, with the US import data for January and February 2025 available, it’s time to assess what actually happened. Did aluminium imports spike ahead of the tariff, or did the impending duty already...
Metro Mining closes 2024 with 5.7M WMT! Here’s a 15-month sprint report with vision for upcoming 21 months
With an ESG vision of serving the market with low-cost bauxite and delivering long-term benefits to stakeholders, Queensland-based Metro Mining has set its sights higher for its 2025 bauxite shipment target. The confidence to aim higher stems naturally from the company’s strong performance in 2024. Although it narrowly missed its annual shipment target by a few percentage points, the final figure still marked a record-breaking achievement. Financial performance analysis ’24 Despite a prolonged wet season that delayed the start of operations and adverse weather in December that forced the cancellation of the final vessel in the shipping schedule, Metro successfully delivered a record 5.7 million WMT from the Bauxite Hills Mine in 2024. The company continued to benefit from a tight global...
China and Europe propel 5.6% growth in Q1 2025 global alumina production despite downturn elsewhere
According to the International Aluminium Institute, the world alumina production concluded the first quarter of 2025 with an annual increase of 5.61 per cent, totalling 75.42 million tonnes versus 71.41 million tonnes. This output volume encompassed both chemical and metallurgical-grade alumina. While the output of chemical-grade alumina amounted to 2.17 million tonnes, accounting for 2.9 per cent, the production of metallurgical-grade totalled 35.538 million tonnes, contributing 47.18 per cent to the total alumina output volume. Year-on-year, the world’s metallurgical-grade alumina production rose each month through the first quarter of 2025, demonstrating an increase of 5.9 per cent Y-o-Y from 33.552 million tonnes. In January, output rose 8 per cent over the year from 11.379 million...
Tesla eyes India venture to tackle global supply-chain turmoil and geopolitical crisis
As geopolitical tensions are on the rise and the subsequent pandemic era disrupts business growth, Tesla is quietly exploring alternative suppliers in India as it diversifies its semiconductor supply chain away from China. Sources report that Tesla has held talks with three major Indian chip ventures – US memory giant Micron’s new Gujarat assembly/testing plant, CG Semi (a Murugappa Group-led OSAT project), and Tata Electronics. Image Source: https://www.tomsguide.com/ Micron’s USD 2.7 billion Gujarat facility is slated for automotive-grade chip assembly and test , CG Semi’s Sanand unit (a JV with Japan’s Renesas and Taiwan’s Stars Microelectronics) will perform outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) for Renesas and others, and Tata Electronics has announced massive investments...
Fact blast: China’s 2024 trade destinations, quantity, value, traits and post-tariff loss forecast
China has topped the aluminium production for the past few years. An aluminium production cap to curtail overcapacity and emissions, a cumulative tariff of 145 per cent on Chinese aluminium articles entering the US imposed phase by phase, or bauxite import restrictions from multiple prime destinations have hit China’s ambitious industrial boom several times. However, the free flow of trade expansion is far from being curbed. This is an AI-generated image Of the total trade of aluminium worldwide in 2024, which was 13.68 million tonnes valued at USD 39.46 billion, 51.46 per cent was occupied for export of plates, sheets and strip exports, accounting for over 7 million tonnes. Meanwhile, foil exports contributed 23.41 per cent (3.2 million tonnes) to the total export number. Bars and rods...
Alcoa’s Portland vs San Ciprián: One is confident for a decade, the other grapples with power outages, reflecting contrasting electricity landscapes
Amid a string of challenges like a projected USD 90 million loss in Q2, delays in the recommencement of the Kwinana refinery, and production setbacks at the San Ciprián aluminium smelter in Spain due to a power outage that has unsettled Alcoa itself as well as the global aluminium industry, the reassuring message about the Portland aluminium smelter in Victoria has brought a sense of relief. Chief Executive Officer William Oplinger has ruled out all the plans to shut down the facility for at least the next decade, announcing stark contrasting news to the troubled San Ciprián smelter, which faces disruptions even before resuming the full operations as planned. He expressed, "I am sick of closing sites. I am much more focused on the Portland side, of trying to make sure we can get it...
Tariffs, tensions and tonnage: Three words primarily influencing US aluminium prices soar in 2025
In a volatile fusion of tariff tensions, supply chain snarls, and shifting trade dynamics, US aluminium import costs have surged to multi-year highs, reshaping the metals market and sending shockwaves through American manufacturing. Image for representational purposes only On April 9, 2025, the United States imposed additional aluminium tariffs — 20 per cent on EU-origin goods and 10 per cent on UK imports, building on the existing 25 per cent base duty introduced under Section 232 in 2018. For EU producers, the effective tariff rate now stands at a crushing 45 per cent, sending shippers and buyers scrambling. The Midwest Premium, the benchmark regional surcharge that includes transport, handling, and tariffs, has reacted dramatically. According to Reuters and CME Group data, the Midwest...
US-Ukraine critical minerals deal: A fair exchange or strategic leverage?
The heated exchange of words for over two months between the US President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ultimately led to a diplomatic breakthrough, culminating in a strategic agreement on critical minerals and other natural resources. The deal grants the United States long-term access to Ukraine’s critical minerals, while also guarantees continued defense support to Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. Key provisions and mutual commitments The agreement, signed on Wednesday, April 30, includes key provisions such as the creation of a reconstruction fund for Ukraine – an initiative that Ukrainian officials hope will serve as a platform to secure ongoing American military support. While Ukraine is expected to contribute 50 per cent of all...
Alcoa under review! Tariffs, power outage, and delayed refinery restart cloud Q3 outlook, despite steady Q2 orders
On Thursday, May 1, the US aluminium giant Alcoa Corporation informed the media and stakeholders that its order book for the second quarter remains stable, despite US tariffs. CEO William Oplinger stated that the company has yet to observe any negative impact on bookings due to the tariffs; but could not give a positive outlook for the months to come, citing customer feedback that signals potential challenges ahead. Outlook under review amid tariffs and power outage In addition to the tariff pressure, Alcoa is now grappling with a new obstacle and that is power outage in Spain, which has disrupted operations at both its aluminum smelter and alumina refinery . The company is currently assessing the full extent of the operational and financial damage at its San Ciprián facility, the largest...
US alumina imports dip in 2024 despite Australia’s comeback — here's why and what to expect next
According to data from the US Geological Survey, the United States' imported 1.34 million tonnes of alumina in 2024, showing a slight decline from 1.36 million tonnes in 2023. This year-on-year dip occurred despite Australia emerging as one of the top suppliers of the ore to the US starting in the third quarter of the year. Quarterly performance: a mixed bag The United States’ alumina imports saw back-to-back growth in the second and third quarter of 2024, amounting to 325,000 tonnes and 378,000 tonnes, respectively. It was in Q4 when the import volumes decreased by 7 per cent Q-o-Q to 352,000 tonnes, offsetting the 16 per cent growth in the previous two quarters. Even on an annual basis, the imports in Q4 dropped by 2 per cent from 359,000 tonnes to 352,000 tonnes. Similarly, the imports...
Rusal vs Germany: Aluminium giants threaten legal action over VTB Bank liquidation
In April 2025, Russian aluminium producer United Co. RUSAL (Rusal) publicly warned that it would pursue legal action against Germany after a German takeover of a bank disrupted a currency‐hedging deal. The bank in question was VTB Bank (Europe) SE – the Frankfurt-based subsidiary of Russia’s state-owned VTB Bank – which German authorities effectively took over in April 2022 amid EU sanctions on Russia. A German-appointed trustee later liquidated the bank (renamed OWH SE) in 2023, and by August 2024, its licence was revoked. This AI-generated image is used for representational purposes only Rusal says this sequence of events illegally expropriated its subsidiary’s rights under a hedging contract, culminating in a London arbitration award ordering Rusal to pay EUR 213 million to the bank’s...
Power outage paralyses Alcoa’s San Ciprián site, a double blow to 1.5 Mt alumina and 228k aluminium operations
Alcoa’s San Ciprián complex was thrown into turmoil by the massive power outage that swept across Spain on April 28, hitting both the aluminium smelter and alumina refinery hard. “Alcoa’s San Ciprián complex was impacted by the widespread power outage across Spain. As a result of the outage, both the refinery and smelter at the complex were affected. The company is conducting a thorough assessment of the facility to determine the full extent of the operational and financial impact,” the company confirmed in a recent statement. The catastrophic event has shaken businesses, enthusiasts, and investors alike as the impact of what looks like just a power cut can curtail millions of dollars’ worth of business for the company and the nation. Image for representational purposes only The blackout...
Hydro’s Q1 Adjusted EBITDA surges 5x on upstream aluminium strength; Extrusions weakness triggers strategic response
Hydro has reportedly announced the first quarter results of 2025 where it has shown positive effects of alumina and all-aluminium prices on its financial performance during the period. However, higher raw material costs, lower extrusion volumes and margins, and lower alumina sales volumes have offset the result to an extent, said Hydro. Here are the key takeaways from Hydro’s Q1 results: Strong upstream results, driven by bauxite and alumina’s record performance Suffered from economic uncertainty and risk of low demand due to tariff Bearish extrusions outlook due to uncertain markets, leading Hydro to adjust portfolio and cut costs Recycling executing on hot metal cost improvements, one-third of 2030 target to be realised in 2025 Financial performance review In the first quarter of 2025,...
Metro Mining potent to rise to key supplier status, meeting China’s peaking bauxite demand
China, the leading alumina and aluminium producer, heavily relies on imported bauxite, which surged to 57 per cent in 2024 , owing to declining domestic ore grades and export restrictions from Indonesia. The country is thus prompted towards an urgent search for nearer-sourced supplies. Australia’s Metro Mining has reportedly seized this moment, with an urge for optimising production at its Bauxite Hills Mine in Queensland, and having ramped capacity up to 7 million tonnes per annum in H2 2024 and shipping 184,000 wet metric tonnes (WMT) in Q1 2025 to satisfy Chinese demand. Backed by long-term supply agreements totalling 6.9 million tonnes in 2025 and 6.1 million tonnes in 2026 with major Chinese partners, the company stands at a sub-USD 30 per dry tonne delivered cost target and a...
Metlen’s metal segment staggers in Q1, with aluminium reflecting over 2% degrowth
Metlen Energy and Metals has kicked off Q1 2025 with a striking surge in activity, posting total sales of EUR 1.50 billion (a 31 per cent upgrade on the EUR 1.143 billion generated in Q1 2024) steered forward by double-digit gains across Metals (an increase of 11 per cent), Energy (31 per cent growth) and a standout Infra and Concessions division (171 per cent). Energy output climbed 35 per cent to 3.1 TWh (renewables up 78 per cent to 0.6 TWh), while Metals production dipped marginally by 2.1 per cent to 58 thousand tonnes amid capacity realignments. The quarter also saw planned infusions of investor confidence, wherein Fairfax Financial’s EUR 110 million exchangeable bond will elevate its stake to 8.35 per cent, and a EUR 295.5 million commitment to an integrated bauxite-to-gallium...
Global aluminium recycling hit a speed-breaker in its path to boost circular economy
Global aluminium businesses have been ramping up efforts in the recycling vertical with mounting demand and resource constraints. However, during the ongoing calendar year, the green initiatives have come under pressure with geopolitics playing a major role in the ruptured system. Image source: IAI Of course, global developments are throwing a wrench into the industry’s momentum. Or else, why would companies like Coca-Cola decide to move away from its aluminium can packaging to pet bottle packaging? In February 2025, the US slapped a 25 per cent tariff on all aluminium imports, citing global overcapacity. Though the tariffs were briefly paused, they came roaring back and bigger. As of March 12, 2025, a blanket 25 per cent tariff now hits all aluminium imports, including derivative...
With a growth rate of 2.6%, what happens when China’s aluminium production peaks?
For the past two decades, China has dominated the global aluminium landscape with unparalleled force. From producing just 4 million tonnes in 2004, the country now commands a staggering 43 million tonnes of primary aluminium smelting capacity, accounting for 60 per cent of the world’s total. But now, in 2025, the dragon appears to be nearing its limits. As China approaches its government-imposed production ceiling with a 2.6 per cent growth rate during the first quarter of the calendar year, a monumental shift is on the horizon — one that could recalibrate global supply chains, trade dynamics, and pricing structures. Image for representational purposes If China’s aluminium production growth rate progresses in a similar pattern, the national production will reach 44 million tonnes, just...
Trump-induced tariffs led to a 5% plunge in the global construction MMI
US President Donald Trump announced on April 16 a tariff escalation from the previously announced 145 per cent to a whopping 245 per cent that has evidently caught the global construction industry off-guard and, in turn, caused a ruffle in sourcing downstream (semi-finished) metals from the world’s largest aluminium-producing nation, China. Transnational builders are now in a rat race with the sudden slap of cost surges, which has reflected in a 5.41 per cent plunge according to MetalMiner’s April Construction Monthly Metals Index, tracking everything from H-beam steel to rebar. This AI-generated image is for referential purposes only Economists warn that the true sting lies in the unpredictability of the regime, deterring investment and complicating procurement strategies. Despite...
