With a growth rate of 2.6%, what happens when China’s aluminium production peaks?
For the past two decades, China has dominated the global aluminium landscape with unparalleled force. From producing just 4 million tonnes in 2004, the country now commands a staggering 43 million tonnes of primary aluminium smelting capacity, accounting for 60 per cent of the world’s total. But now, in 2025, the dragon appears to be nearing its limits. As China approaches its government-imposed production ceiling with a 2.6 per cent growth rate during the first quarter of the calendar year, a monumental shift is on the horizon — one that could recalibrate global supply chains, trade dynamics, and pricing structures.
Image for representational purposes
If China’s aluminium production growth rate progresses in a similar pattern, the national production will reach 44 million tonnes, just one million tonnes away from the set cap. Thus, the aluminium world rightfully asks: What happens when China peaks?
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