Beyond aluminium smelting capacity, we propose to incentivise emissions cuts to support wider decarbonisation: Ed Boyd, Mission Possible Partnership

As the European Council seeks political alignment on the Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA), the debate over how to accelerate aluminium decarbonisation in bringing emissions accounting and demand for low-carbon metal into focus. Against the backdrop of Mission Possible Partnership’s (MPP) open letter, AL Circle speaks with Ed Boyd, MPP’s Global Policy Lead, about the policies needed to support the European aluminium industry’s transition.

Boyd argues that effective decarbonisation must account for emissions from alumina refining and track Scope 2 emissions associated with purchased electricity. On mandatory green procurement and lead-market thresholds of at least 50 per cent for aluminium, he says producers are ready to supply low-carbon metal at scale and considers the proposed threshold achievable.

At MPP, Boyd analyses government policies that can help industries move away from carbon-intensive practices. Before joining MPP, Ed held several roles in UK Government working across energy and climate policy, including leading the UK's International Climate and Nature Strategy Team during COP26. Prior to this Ed worked as a consultant across transport, industry and heat decarbonisation.

AL Circle: In its open letter on the European Commission’s Industrial Accelerator Act, Mission Possible Partnership argues that definitions of low-carbon aluminium must be based on robust carbon accounting that reflects the metal’s physical emissions across the value chain. What system boundaries, emissions scopes and verification requirements should this methodology include, and why would it provide a more credible basis than existing approaches?

Ed Boyd: It is crucial that a definition of low-carbon aluminium is developed well in advance of the lead market measures in the Industrial Accelerator Act coming into force to give confidence to buyers and producers.  We have recommended a robust accounting approach to be developed under the Ecodesign for Sustainable Products Regulation (ESPR).

Key components of this should include:

• Ensuring the full value chain is covered to enable emissions reduction beyond smelting to be included. Europe already has a large pipeline of smelters operating on low carbon electricity. In order to make sure decarbonisation of aluminium can be incentivsed further it is important to make sure that other steps are covered, particularly emissions from alumina refining.
• Robust accounting for scope 2 emissions. Because aluminium is highly electricity intensive, it is important to make sure geographical correlation with low-carbon electricity is considered.

Also read: Renewable energy availability in Germany and aluminium companies adopting renewables

AL Circle: The letter calls for mandatory green-procurement and lead-market thresholds of at least 50 per cent for aluminium. How commercially and politically achievable is this target, and what safeguards would be needed to prevent higher procurement costs, supply constraints or carbon leakage? What scale of investment in low-carbon aluminium production could such a mandate realistically unlock?

Ed Boyd: Political achievability: Is possible when policymakers can see that industry is ready to deliver it. That's why companies need to speak up and show that ambitious lead-market thresholds are workable. This letter aims to do that. With support from companies such as Norsk Hydro, it shows that producers are ready to supply low-carbon aluminium at scale and see a 50 per cent threshold as achievable. It also shows that clear demand signals are what they need to commit to new investment.

Supply potential: Supply is unlikely to be a constraint. Europe has a significant fleet of aluminium smelters that already run on clean electricity – we estimate the capacity is 3.2 MTPA, with an additional 0.6MTPA of announced capacity – there is also 4-5 MTPA of recycling capacity. Our analysis indicates that the 25% threshold set in the IAA regarding public procurement and public support schemes corresponds to roughly 0.5MTPA. By implementing the recommendations, this could be increased to 2.5 MTPA, and ramped up after 2030 to unlock more capacity. Beyond smelting capacity, we also propose to incentivise emissions cuts that go further, to support wider decarbonisation (e.g. alumina refining and mitigation of process emissions).

Cost:  Cost pass-through analysis conducted by MPP, alongside findings from other studies, indicates that the incremental cost of using low-carbon aluminium in final products such as cars could be in the range of EUR 20–50 per vehicle.

Safeguards: the proposal's derogations already act as a safety valve - authorities may set the requirements aside where costs are disproportionate, where there are limited suppliers or where delays exceed seven months. These waivers absorb the genuinely challenging cases.

AL Circle: MPP has also advocated strong “Made in Europe” provisions to protect strategic industries. Which specific eligibility requirements, such as production origin, carbon intensity, recycling content or value created within Europe, should determine whether aluminium qualifies? How can these provisions strengthen European production without unduly restricting imports or disadvantaging downstream manufacturers that depend on globally sourced metal?

Ed Boyd: We recommend Made in Europe is determined at the smelt-and-cast step, due to the significant existing low-carbon capacity within Europe. Europe’s supply chains are integrated with partners, especially EFTA and the UK, so we recommend including these geographies as eligible – these geographies account for a large share of European primary aluminium production.

Showcase your brand, aluminium recycling initiatives and sustainability vision in our upcoming magazine: Sustainability & Recycling: Aluminium’s Commitment 2026.

AL Circle: The letter urges policymakers to establish clear definitions of “low-carbon” and “near-zero-emission” aluminium well before 2029. What carbon-intensity thresholds does MPP recommend for these categories, and should the criteria distinguish between primary and recycled aluminium? How should the thresholds evolve as production technologies and electricity systems decarbonise?

Ed Boyd: Detailed carbon-intensity thresholds need to be developed under ESPR. The criteria should be based on emissions performance and stay technology neutral. Rather than enforcing one flat threshold, MPP supports the implementation of a staircase of performance classes, with a top tier calibrated to the best available technology, providing sub-targets and/or multipliers to reward the cleanest producers.  For aluminium, a system should be developed that rewards existing widely used levers like renewable electricity-based smelting but distinguishes decarbonisation levers that address process emissions and alumina refining.

A robust system should be applied to the use of recycling, which accounts for the emissions embodied in pre-consumer scrap, and incentivises recycling of post-consumer scrap.

AL Circle: The proposed Industrial Accelerator Act recognises aluminium as a strategic sector amid high energy costs, weakening competitiveness and persistent global overcapacity. In MPP’s assessment, does the current proposal go far enough to address these structural pressures? Where does it remain insufficient in supporting the investment, energy access and demand certainty required to decarbonise Europe’s aluminium industry?

Ed Boyd: The original proposal is an important step, but does not yet go far enough to address structural pressures that the aluminium sector and other European energy intensive industries face. The Commission's original 25 per cent threshold for aluminium will not create a demand signal that is strong enough to trigger new investment, that’s why we recommend going further.

Demand creation is just one block of a coherent strategy, and needs to be implemented alongside a stable carbon price, a CBAM that levels the playing field – including for downstream industries – measures to increase the supply of affordable clean electricity and subsidy support for new technologies.