Tariff fallout: US aluminium trade trends down with imports dampened by 12% in February 2025

There was widespread speculation that US aluminium imports might surge ahead of the 25 per cent tariff implementation on March 12, driven by businesses rushing to bring in shipments before the duty took effect. At the same time, concerns mounted over the potential impact of the tariffs on aluminium inflows, particularly from Canada, the United States’ largest supplier, accounting for 57 per cent of its total aluminium imports. Major American producers like Alcoa, which manufactures 70 per cent of its aluminium in Canada, also raised serious alarms about the possible consequences of the policy.

Now, with the US import data for January and February 2025 available, it’s time to assess what actually happened. Did aluminium imports spike ahead of the tariff, or did the impending duty already begin to dampen trade?

According to the US Geological Survey, the United States in February 2025 imported 459,000 tonnes of aluminium (including scrap), down by 12.24 per cent M-o-M from 523,000 tonnes. Even if calculated on a Y-o-Y basis, the import volume in February decreased by 6.7 per cent from 492,000 tonnes.

Of the total import volume in February, crude metal and alloy imports accounted for 65 per cent, with an import volume of 298,000 tonnes versus 355,000 tonnes in January. Aluminium plates, sheets and bars imports were 101,000 tonnes, down by 19 per cent from 125,000 tonnes in the previous month, while aluminium scrap imports totalled 59,700 tonnes compared to 63,400 tonnes in January 2025.

The decline was seen across nearly all major suppliers, showed USGS data. From Canada, the United States imported 258,000 tonnes of aluminium, reflecting a 15.13 per cent of decline M-o-M from 304,000 tonnes and an 18.35 per cent fall Y-o-Y from 316,000 tonnes. Aluminium crude metal and alloy imports slid 15.7 per cent M-o-M from 248,000 tonnes to 209,000 tonnes, aluminium plates, sheets and bars imports declined by 7.46 per cent from 20,100 tonnes to 18,600 tonnes, and aluminium scrap imports slumped by 17.3 per cent from 36,400 tonnes to 30,100 tonnes.

Even the imports from the United Arab Emirates, a potential region as a viable source of low-carbon aluminium in place of Canada, recorded a decline in February from 47,400 tonnes in January to 29,500 tonnes. The United Arab Emirates primarily supplies aluminium crude metal and alloys to the United States, which tumbled by 38.4 per cent M-o-M in February, coming in at 28,900 tonnes versus 46,900 tonnes in January.