AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
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Global aluminium pivot: Will low-carbon scrap reshape the market?
After the pandemic in 2020 and early 2021, global aluminium demand has made a strong comeback and is now on a steady growth trajectory. According to industry data, total global consumption hit 97.6 million tonnes in 2023 and is projected to rise to 100.8 million tonnes in 2024, primarily driven by the release of pent-up demand. Out of this total, recycled aluminium made up 27.7 million tonnes in 2023, with a slight increase to 28.4 million tonnes in 2024. As per AL Circle's report, the global aluminium recycling market is set to experience notable growth from 2023 to 2032. By 2024, the industry had already shown consistent progress, due to strategic moves and investments from key players in the field. In 2024, global aluminium consumption, which includes both primary and recycled metal,...
DAILY: Chinese spot alumina prices soften further, futures momentum falters
Chinese spot alumina prices softened further on September 25, while the upward momentum in its futures market faltered in the nighttime trading session after posting daytime gains. On Thursday, the national average spot price assessed by Mysteel for smelter-grade alumina with purity exceeding 98.6 per cent slipped by another RMB 8 per tonne (USD 1.1 per tonne) on day to sit at RMB 3,025 per tonne, extending the RMB 9 per tonne drop on Wednesday. The latest price drop was mainly driven by weaker trades late Wednesday in Shanxi and Henan - two major alumina-producing provinces in the northern part of China – where mounting supplies weighed on market sentiment. Three of China's five major alumina-producing regions experienced price declines yesterday, with the assessed alumina prices in East...
Novelis scales sustainability strategy in FY25, targeting 75% recycled content by 2030
Novelis has released its sustainability report for fiscal year 2025 (April 1, 2024–March 31, 2025). The report captures the company’s push to make aluminium the backbone of a circular economy through its 3x30 vision — a strategy launched in 2024 to lift recycled content to 75 per cent, cut emissions intensity below 3 tonnes of CO₂e per tonne of flat-rolled product (FRP), and drive industry-wide transformation with different investments. A year of reductions The latest figures show Novelis is steadily closing in on those goals. Greenhouse-gas intensity dropped by 10 per cent in FY25, with overall carbon intensity falling from 4.0 to 3.6 tCO₂e per tonne of FRP. Since 2016, the company has reduced absolute emissions by 32 per cent. Energy use also came down, with a 3.7 per cent reduction in...
EU plans to be back at talk with the US! Here’s who we think needs it more…
On Wednesday, the European Union announced its intention to resume discussions with the United States regarding the reduction of Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminium. This move comes as various nations seek to address ongoing trade tensions. EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic is scheduled to meet with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in the coming days to discuss the possibility of removing or reducing the current tariffs, as Sefcovic informed a Bloomberg reporter. But does European Union really need to stress on negotiation when they are accustomed with the ‘tariff structure’ from long before? Image for representational purposes only The European Union has had its own tariff policy While the United States has taken the centre stage for the past 8years or so whenever the...
Indonesian thermal coal supply to tighten next quarter?
Supplies of thermal coal in Indonesia may face a shortage during October-December, several Chinese and Indonesian traders have warned, noting that some major coal producers in Indonesia have already sold out most of their cargoes scheduled for delivery during the period. Supply would be particularly tight for low-calorific value (CV) grades, including the most-traded 3,800 kcal/kg NAR, they said. These remarks came just after the end of Coaltrans Asia 2025 held during September 21-23 in Bali, where many participants expressed optimism about the Q4 performance, citing the support of seasonal heating demand from countries in the northern hemisphere. Preliminary statistics provided by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) show that Indonesia only produced 509 million tonnes of...
Aluminium extrusion industry eyes 43Mt by 2032 amidst ongoing tariff scenario
The aluminium extrusion industry is carving out a space as one of the fastest-growing sectors in the global aluminium value chain. As demand soars across a range of applications, from transportation and construction to renewable energy, industrial sectors, and consumer products, the industry is positioning itself for a strong future. The turbulence caused by the pandemic seems to have set the stage for an even more resilient recovery, with global usage set to reach 35 million tonnes in 2024 and forecasts suggesting an impressive rise to 43 million tonnes by 2032. Yet, the road ahead is not without its challenges. Geopolitical tensions, a cooling construction sector, economic stagnation in key regions, and persistently high energy costs continue to test the industry's mettle. While energy...
Global bauxite trade H1 2025: Guinea tops with $8.9B exports, Brazil and Turkey falter
The first half of 2025 showed a divided picture for the global bauxite trade. Some producers set new records, while others stumbled against logistical and policy headwinds. Guinea and Australia stayed firmly ahead, fuelled by Chinese demand and reliable supply chains. At the same time, Turkey and Brazil slipped back, leaving room for smaller exporters such as Malaysia and Guyana to carve out a bigger role. Export performance: gainers and losers Guinea, the world’s largest supplier, shipped about 99.8 million tonnes between January and June — a 36 per cent jump from 73.4 million tonnes a year ago. Export earnings hit roughly USD 8.9 billion, most of it from China, which alone takes around 60 per cent of the country’s ore. Australia also turned in a solid performance. Volumes rose 11 per...
AL Circle x Kirsty Davies-Chinnock: Women entering aluminium sector, develop your network and make yourself visible
In conversation with, Kirsty Davies-Chinnock, a visionary leader, award-winning manufacturer, and trailblazer for gender inclusion in the metals and industrial sectors. After a serendipitous start in metal finishing in 1989, she rose through the ranks to lead a company through economic storms, and now channels her experience into Women With Metal, a movement and annual conference amplifying women’s voices in manufacturing. As host of the Women in Industry podcast and founder of The Confidence Collective, Kirsty empowers professionals through storytelling, mentorship, and community. From boardrooms to workshops, she leverages her expertise and conviction to redefine leadership—one bold step at a time. AL Circle: Can you tell us about your journey in the metals, manufacturing & engineering...
China’s unwrought aluminium trade in 2025: Imports soar but exports stumble, what’s next?
China's unwrought aluminium trade landscape in 2025 shows imports on the rise, climbing to 2.1 million tonnes in the first half of the year, which is a 2.4 per cent increase compared to the same time last year. This growth is largely driven by robust demand from the construction and transportation sectors, along with increased bauxite inflows by 18.2 per cent year-on-year ensuring a steady supply of raw materials. However, exports face hurdles, totalling 272.9 thousand tonnes during the same period. While this marks a slight recovery from last year, exports are still grappling with changing global demand trends, likely India’s anti dumping duties, US tariff conflicts and so on, price fluctuations and various regulatory challenges. Year-to-date: China's imports of unwrought aluminium...
Interest rates down, aluminium costs up: Breaking down the Fed’s move
Federal interest rate cut often creates a paradox. On one hand, it is intended to shore up economy by making borrowing cheaper and encouraging businesses to take loans to invest in hiring and expanding production. On the other hand, this exercise potentially leads to inflation, dampens stock market growth, reduces investment appetite, and affects consumer behaviour. The recent Fed rate cut in September by a quarter-point, bringing down the rates to 4 to 4.25 per cent, is also triggering the same conundrum. While the latest rate cut is aimed at boosting economy and employment, it fuels the risk of inflation from the current 2.9 per cent as of the end of August. But the fact is the government is now prioritising jobs over price stability. "The labour market is really cooling off," said Fed...
Apt Group's sustainable FY24: Focus on business impact & pathways for European AL leadership
“2024 was an important year for the apt Group in many respects, characterised by strategic decisions and operational development. Our path toward achieving climate neutrality by the end of 2044 continued,” wrote Manon Gahmann, Director of CSR Compliance. This statement comes amid the European aluminium industry facing a historic pivot of climate legislation and escalating energy prices. It demands circularity that is no longer a choice but an existential factor shaping business models. And Apt Group stands out in this landscape as a regional leader with four production sites across Germany, the Netherlands, and the Czech Republic, pressing 44,393 tonnes of rods and selling 43,392 aluminium profiles for construction, transport, automotive, and industry sectors. In 2024, the company...
Boeing aircraft deal emerges as catalyst for US-China tariff relief
The United States and China are edging closer to a landmark Boeing aircraft deal that could anchor a broader trade agreement between the two powers. US Ambassador to China David Perdue, said the negotiations are in their “final days,” signalling a breakthrough that has been long in the making. Image for representational purpose According to Bloomberg, Boeing is working toward the sale of as many as 500 jets — a transaction that would end a sales freeze stretching back to Donald Trump’s 2017 visit to China. Diplomacy and trade backdrop The talks are unfolding at a moment of renewed diplomatic engagement. In recent weeks, Trump spoke by phone with President Xi Jinping, while negotiators reached a framework for ByteDance to divest its US-based TikTok operations, easing a major flashpoint....
GACC: China's alumina exports soar 59% Y-o-Y in Jan-Aug
China's exports of alumina, including metallurgical-grade and other types, totalled 1.75 million tonnes during January-August this year, up by 59.3 per cent from the same period last year, according to new data released by the country's General Administration of Customs (GACC). In August alone, China exported 180,507 tonnes of the raw material, rising by 26 per cent on year but falling by 21.3 per cent on month. Russia remained China's largest export destination for the eighth straight month in August, receiving 153,021 tonnes or 84.8 per cent of the national total. However, Chinese alumina shipments there last month declined by 24.5 per cent from July's monthly high. Also during August, Indonesia ranked second by taking 13,243 tonnes, followed by Taiwan with 2,861 tonnes. Also read:...
Japan’s aluminium can demand holds at 2.09 billion units in 2025
Japan’s aluminium can industry is treading water. According to the Japan Aluminium Can Recycling Association (JACRA), total demand for aluminium cans (including both domestic and imported volumes) will remain at about 2.091 billion units in 2025, unchanged from the previous year. Domestic demand is estimated at 2.07 billion units, essentially flat. This makes 2025 the tenth consecutive year that aluminium can consumption has hovered around the two-billion mark. Image for representational purposes only (source: https://www.tskg-hd.com/) Also read: Canned out: America’s food can market declines 16.7% in four years On the surface, the data might appear to signal maturity, even stagnation. But dig deeper, and the story is more complex. Aluminium cans dominate Japan’s beverage packaging...
Aluminium Alloyed, non-alloyed & scrap: India’s downstream aluminium H1 2025 trade
India's aluminium sector is currently navigating a rapidly changing landscape in the first half of 2025, with significant shifts in both exports and imports of alloyed, non-alloyed and scrap aluminium. Exports of non-alloyed aluminium, alloyed aluminium and waste and scrap have all taken a noticeable dip compared to last year. On the flip side, imports are showing a mixed bag, with alloyed aluminium and scrap seeing a sharp increase. India's export of alloyed & non-alloyed aluminium and scraps In H1 2025, India's exports of non-alloyed aluminium dropped to 495.7 million tonnes, valued at USD 1.36 billion, from the same timeframe the previous year, which stood at 818.7 million tonnes, valued at USD 2 billion, representing a decline of 39 per cent. In the same timeline, 2025, India's export...
Canned out: America’s food can market declines 16.7% in four years
America’s appetite for canned goods is shrinking, putting the industry under pressure. Between 2020 and 2024 US domestic shipments of food cans fell 16.7 per cent, from 28.45 billion cans to 23.7 billion, as per CMI. Image for representational purpose Behind the decline is a rearrangement of what Americans buy in tins — a retreat from staple human-food categories and a quiet surge for coffee and pet food — and a story about changing tastes, packaging innovation and the mechanics of making the very objects whose fortunes are being reshaped. Winners and losers on the production line Not every can suffered equally. Coffee cans were the clear standout, rising 63 per cent over the four-year span to 0.075 billion cans in 2024 from 0.046 billion in 2020. Pet food also eked out gains, up 3.9 per...
WEEKLY: Chinese alumina prices decline at slower pace
Chinese spot alumina prices weakened further last week, though the pace of decline slowed compared with the previous week. During the week of September 12-18, the national average price of spot alumina with purity above 98.6 per cent slipped by 1.5 per cent on week to RMB 3,065 per tonne (USD 431 per tonne), according to Mysteel's price assessment. The fall was milder than the previous week's 2.4 per cent drop, Mysteel Global noted. Image: Shandong Renwa Abrasive Tech. Co.,Ltd Despite weaker prices, alumina supplies in the domestic market climbed further, reinforcing the wait-and-see attitude of buyers. Most primary aluminium smelters held back from purchasing spot goods, except for a few that restocked raw material inventories at relatively stable prices via tender. On the supply side,...
Aluminium leadership reset – Top 10 fresh voices reshaping the industry in H1 2025
Change is the one rhythm life never stops playing. It sweeps through seasons, reshapes routines, and just as seamlessly, redefines the faces steering organisations forward. In business, a leadership shift is never just a new title on a desk, but a turning point that can spark reinvention, resilience, and fresh vision. True leadership isn’t only about making choices; it’s about guiding people through uncertainty, creating stability in difficult times, and seeing opportunities where others might only see problems. In a world of rapid market swings, shifting cultures, and unexpected challenges, the leaders who stand out are those who welcome change, treating it not as a threat but as fuel for growth. This story explores the new voices stepping up, leaders who now carry the responsibility of...
