AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
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Inside aluminium’s safety record: Five years of wins and setbacks
Within the global aluminium industry, workplace safety is a top priority, mainly due to the combination of heavy machinery, high-temperature processes and complex chemical handling, which raises accident risks. But it's not just about the immediate impact on people; safety issues can also disrupt production, damage equipment and erode trust among stakeholders. It is essential to have strong safety measures in place, not just to meet regulations, but as a key part of sustainable growth. Here is a deep dive into the workplace accidents over the past five years, with real-time case studies and measures to overcome them. The analysis for the workplace accidents from 2019 to 2024 is done based on two accident severities: the first being the lost time accident rate per MHW, indicating the time...
Alumina refining fuel consumption hit 1 million TJ in 2024 — Fuel mix transition weighs in
The International Aluminium Institute (IAI) has reported that the global alumina refining industry has had an annual consumption of 1,188,250 Terajoules (TJ) of fuel in 2024. Between 2023 and 2024, global alumina output climbed from 133.54 million tonnes to 138.59 million tonnes, a 3.8 per cent increase, yet total fuel consumption remained almost flat, inching up by just 0.4 per cent. The million terrajoules of consumption is a stark reminder of the heavy reliance of metallurgical alumina production on various energy sources. Image credit: https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/ Also read: Here's what Johannes Zutt of World Bank divulged: BRICS push renewables to forefront, but India faces harder questions Of the total alumina produced, 122.52 million tonnes in 2023 came from...
India’s critical minerals drive: Legal reforms, domestic extraction, and aluminium’s emerging role
As the global clean energy transition, electric vehicle boom, and digital economy accelerate, India has realised the hard truth that its deep reliance on imported critical minerals is unsustainable. Thus, in an attempt to increase the domestic production of critical minerals, India is considering lifting a long-standing restriction that mandates the miners to extract only the mineral they have the licence for. Several reports indicate the reform will allow the leaseholders of thousands of mines, which were allocated before 2015 without formal auctions, to commercially mine newly-discovered strategic minerals like lithium, cobalt, and rare earths. Important to note, all of these minerals are vital for clean energy, automobiles, electronics, and defence. Two officials on the condition of...
Asia struggles to catch up as Europe leads aluminium’s decarbonisation race
The global aluminium industry is at a crossroad, caught between rapidly rising demand from the clean energy transition and the urgent need to decarbonise. As nations scale up solar farms, wind turbines, and electric vehicles, appetite for the lightweight metal is soaring — but producers are under pressure of decarbonising one of the most energy-intensive industries in the world. A study released in September 2025 by Eurasia Group and Alcoa paints a mixed picture. On one hand, aluminium use is set to rise by 40 per cent by 2030 and by 80 per cent by 2050 compared with 2020 levels, cementing its place in the clean energy economy. On the other, the industry is still far off the pace needed for net zero. Aluminium is responsible for about 3 per cent of global industrial emissions, and over...
India slashes GST on renewables to 5%, boosting solar growth and aluminium demand
The Indian government has moved to slash the goods and services tax (GST) on renewable energy equipment, bringing the rate down from 12 per cent to 5 per cent from 22 September 2025. This decision is meant to speed up the country’s energy transition, ease the strain on consumers and developers, and create new jobs in the coming years. The solar sector shows the impact most clearly. Building one megawatt of utility-scale solar currently costs between INR 35 million (USD 398,493) and INR 40 million. The lower GST means each megawatt will be about INR 2–2.5 million cheaper. For a 500 MW solar park, that adds up to more than INR 1 billion in savings — enough to make tariffs sharply more competitive. These cost savings are not limited to developers. By reducing project expenditure, the reform...
Pankaj Jain of the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas: LNG, biofuels & hydrogen to aid the long-term energy transition
At the Financial Times organised Energy Transition Summit in India, Pankaj Jain, Secretary of the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, mapped out India’s evolving energy roadmap. His intervention cut through partisan mottos and international pressure with a pragmatic reality check of hydrocarbons remaining central to India’s energy security, but biofuels and hydrogen already altering the mix faster than expected. For energy-intensive sectors such as aluminium, which live or die by affordable and reliable energy, Jain’s remarks are far beyond policy signals and are a blueprint of the fuels that will shape India’s competitiveness for decades. Image source: https://www.hindustanpetroleum.com/ Also read: Here's what Johannes Zutt of World Bank divulged: BRICS push renewables to forefront, but...
From Beijing to Washington: Is Mexico’s trade shift a strategic move or survival tactic?
Mexico’s aluminium industry once leaned on China as a way to soften the blow of US trade barriers is now moving on the other side. When Washington imposed tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018, large volumes of aluminium were rerouted through Mexico, some of it processed locally before being shipped on to the US. The opening came a year earlier, in 2017, when the US removed tariffs on Mexican aluminium. With duty-free access under USMCA, Mexico became an attractive route for Chinese producers to slip past American trade restrictions. Imports surged, raising concerns that the sector was becoming too dependent on Asian supply. From the export data, we can see the change: in 2024, Mexico’s exports to China were about USD 9.08 billion, dominated by copper ores and concentrates (USD 5.17 billion),...
Double trouble: aluminium scrap outflow adds to tariff woes for the European packaging industry
Heard enough that Europe’s rising outflow of aluminium scrap is hitting a double blow by depleting vital feedstock for its secondary aluminium industry on one hand and on the other by eroding the material which is central to sustainability and net-zero goals. So far, the concerns were voiced mainly by recyclers but now the packaging manufacturers have joined the pack warning of a looming crunch of raw material on home soil. The strain is being felt harder when the European Union is moving forward with its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) tool, which restricts aluminium imports yet leaves the unchecked flow of scrap exports unresolved. Let alone the supply crunch of raw material, industries fear they may also fall short on carbon-reduction targets. For the packaging industry, the...
A rendition of what Johannes Zutt of World Bank divulged: BRICS push renewables to forefront, but India faces harder questions
At the Financial Times Energy Transition Summit in India, Johannes Zutt, Vice President for South Asia at the World Bank, offered a candid assessment during a keynote interview session of how emerging economies are recalibrating their growth strategies around clean power — and why the aluminium sector should be paying close attention. Image souce: https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/ Also read: Scotland’s circular economy adds £7B to GVA but methodology constraints cloud comparisons Zutt drew a parallel with Brazil, noting that the country’s success in solar was no accident. “Successive governments saw the potential of exploiting high solar irradiation in the northeast and put in place a comprehensive programme to realise that potential,” he said. The Brazilian model combined competitive...
Numbers show resilience: Europe’s aluminium industry navigates the energy crisis with renewables
Against the backdrop of war-driven energy shocks and refinery closures, Europe and Russia’s aluminium industry has managed to keep production on a steady course. Primary aluminium output rose from 3.3 million tonnes in H1 2023 to 3.4 million tonnes in H1 2024, representing a 2.3 per cent increase and climbed further to 3.47 million tonnes, a 1.8 per cent gain compared with H1 2024. The first quarter of 2025, particularly January to March, outperformed earlier years, though February slipped slightly compared with 2024. Alumina production, by contrast, has been more variable. Production jumped from 2.5 million tonnes in 2023 to 2.9 million tonnes in 2024, a year-on-year increase of nearly 14.9 per cent. This sharp momentum faltered in 2025. H1 production slipped marginally to 2.8 million...
Steel vs aluminium: Evaluating who’s more affected by US tariffs in 2025
The discussion considering the durability and lightweight of the most traded metals, that is, aluminium and steel, has been ongoing for years and is never-ending, but how is the current trade policy shaping the trade of these metals in 2025? With a 50 per cent steep tariff imposed by Trump, will these metals have broader trajectories to unfold trade dynamics in the coming years. To date, both aluminium and steel have their own unique trading dynamics, influenced by the volume and ways they are used, their pricing systems, and the global supply chains. Steel trade thrives on its strength and durability, making it a go-to choice for infrastructure projects, while aluminium is becoming increasingly popular due to its lightweight properties, especially in the automotive and aerospace...
AL Circle x Norsk Hydro: Scrap, technology, and renewable energy drive our decarbonisation operations
In an exclusive conversation, Bjørn Kjetil Mauritzen, Senior Vice President and Head of Sustainability at Hydro, underscored the company’s unwavering commitment to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. He outlined clear interim goals of cutting emissions by 10 per cent by 2025 and 30 per cent by 2030, based on 2018 levels. According to Mauritzen, Hydro is driving this transition through three main strategies - expanding post-consumer scrap recycling, advancing breakthrough technologies like carbon capture and zero-emission smelting, and accelerating the use of renewable energy while boosting efficiency. Dive into the full interview to explore his insights in detail. AL Circle: Hydro has long positioned itself as a sustainability leader in the aluminium industry. Could you share your...
Scotland’s circular economy adds £7B to GVA but methodology constraints cloud comparisons
Scotland’s circular economy has been quantified in hard numbers for the first time, with a new economic study placing its contribution at GBP 7.11 billion in gross value added (GVA) in 2021. The valuation represents 4.7 per cent of Scotland’s total GVA, or 3.9 per cent of GDP when including offshore oil and gas extraction. Employment linked to circular activity stood at 81,447, accounting for 4.4 per cent of total Scottish jobs. The figures, published by Zero Waste Scotland and produced by Eunomia Research & Consulting with University College London, establish a baseline for measuring circularity’s role in Scotland’s economy. They also highlight the scale of opportunity: circular activity already outpaces EU averages, but significant data limitations mean the true footprint may be larger...
iPhone and aluminium: A story of design, identity, & sustainability
The Apple vs. Android debate has been running for years, with endless arguments over software, cameras, and apps. Yet behind those headline battles was a quieter revolution—one built on aluminium. For Apple, aluminium was never just another material. It became part of its identity, a design philosophy, and a way of uniting elegance with strength. In many ways, the story of the iPhone can’t be told without the story of aluminium. Aluminium enters the iPhone landscape When Steve Jobs stepped on stage in 2007 to reveal the first iPhone, the world’s attention was locked on the touchscreen—a feature that would forever change how we use our phones. Yet, almost quietly, another element was shaping the device’s identity. The smooth aluminium back, cool against the hand and refined in its finish,...
Why aluminium is being pulled from Malaysia’s LME warehouses: demand or costs?
Mercuria and Vitol are withdrawing large volumes of aluminium from London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses in Malaysia, underscoring tightening supply dynamics and the country’s growing reliance on domestic stocks to sustain industrial demand. Mercuria, the Swiss giant, has already taken out nearly 100,000 tonnes from Malaysian storage, while Vitol is preparing withdrawals from Port Klang, according to sources. The timing has surprised market participants since spot aluminium prices are currently higher than forward prices — a structure that usually discourages drawing down inventories. Shrinking imports and stable exports Malaysia’s trade data underscores the rationale. Aluminium exports stood at 2.28 million tonnes in 2023, slipped slightly to 2.25 million tonnes in 2024, and reached...
Why aluminium alloy prices are higher in 2025 vs 2024?
Aluminium alloy LME prices began 2025 on stronger ground, marking a shift upward from the levels seen a year earlier. The LME offer price opened in January at around USD 2250 per tonne but quickly slipped to approx. USD 2100 per tonne. For much of the first quarter, values held between USD 2100 and USD 2500 per tonne. From March 17, momentum turned higher, reaching USD 2547 per tonne and closing the month at USD 2577 per tonne. This was tied to developments in US trade policy. In February, Washington lifted aluminium tariffs under Section 232 from 10 to 25 per cent, effective March 12, 2025, while scrapping exemptions. Buyers rushed to secure supplies before the higher duties came into effect, boosting inventories and advancing shipments. Some attempted to claim exemptions for “melted and...
Al Circle x Window Magic: How aluminium is redefining India’s fenestration future
In conversation with Mr Manish Bansal, the Director and CEO of Window Magic highlights aluminium’s pivotal role in reshaping India’s architectural and fenestration industry, offering strength, design flexibility, and sustainability compared to traditional materials. He notes its recyclability, energy-efficient technologies, and alignment with global trends like minimalistic frames, unitised curtain walls, and dynamic façades. With European technology raising performance standards and digital tools like BIM and smart glass driving precision and efficiency, aluminium is positioned as the material of choice for future-ready buildings. Backed by Window Magic’s sustainability initiatives, diversification, and innovation-driven culture, Bansal sees aluminium as central to India’s construction...
Tariffs or economic slowdown - What’s behind North America’s aluminium demand weakness, although scrap tells a different story!
According to preliminary estimates from the Aluminum Association, aluminium demand in North America (the US and Canada) fell 4.4 per cent year-on-year in the first half of 2025. Whether this decline is the direct fallout of Washington’s punitive duties is a question the Association intends to probe. Its president and CEO, Charles Johnson, has stressed that trade policies must bolster and not burden the domestic aluminium industry. The numbers also point to a deeper dilemma: does a slowdown in aluminium demand signal an equal cooling in both aluminium ingot and scrap? While unwrought aluminium imports are sliding, scrap inflows are climbing, and inventories are swelling. This raises tough questions about how the market is truly shifting. A deeper look at the data and its analysis may offer...
