AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
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MONTHLY: China's thermal coal may gain steam on tighter supply, winter demand
China's spot market for thermal coal is entering October on a firmer tone, as tightening supply coincides with a seasonal recovery in demand. This follows a volatile September, when a spurt of restocking by utilities drove a short-lived price rally, Mysteel noted in its latest monthly report. Throughout September, thermal coal prices at northern transfer ports fluctuated widely. Mysteel had assessed the benchmark 5,500 kcal per kg NAR thermal coal at RMB 694 per tonne (USD 97.4 per tonne) FOB northern ports with VAT on September 1, but by September 12 cooler temperatures and rising hydropower output had curbed coal consumption at utilities, causing prices to gradually decline to RMB 681 per tonne. Prices then rebounded to RMB 709 per tonne on September 24 amid restocking demand ahead of...
Century Aluminum’s sustainability blueprint for a carbon-free tomorrow
As the aluminium industry faces growing environmental pressure, top companies globally are taking every step possible to unlock more sustainable solutions. And this is where Century Aluminium, a prominent producer of primary aluminium, has taken up initiatives of not just reducing carbon footprint but also improving the efficiency of the company and thus unlocking a more sustainable future for the industry. To begin with, in 2024, the US-based company took significant steps to align its operations with sustainability objectives, highlighting Century's dedication to responsible production, innovation, and environmental stewardship. Let's take a closer look at how sustainability is being embedded into the company's operations. Certifications & sustainable frameworks A key part of Century's...
Fastmarkets proposes CBAM cost integration into aluminium P1020A premiums
Fastmarkets, the price reporting agency whose assessments underpin the London Metal Exchange’s (LME) physical aluminium trade, has proposed incorporating the cost of the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) directly into the aluminium P1020A benchmark premiums for Italy and Spain. The move, set for implementation from January 1, 2026, could redefine how carbon costs are priced across Europe’s aluminium supply chain. The consultation paper, released in early October 2025, details that CBAM costs would be integrated into the existing aluminium P1020A premium assessments — MB-AL-0316 (Italy) and MB-AL-0319 (Spain) — reflecting logistics, warehousing, regional demand-supply balances, and prevailing duty costs. Image for referential purposes only The consultation period...
South America's bauxite-giant Brazil now bets big on critical minerals with policy push and rising investments
From being a bauxite-rich nation to now positioning itself as a potential global powerhouse in critical minerals, Brazil stands at the crossroads of industrial opportunity and sustainable development. Nestled in South America, Brazil ranks first in niobium, second in rare earths, graphite and iron ore, third in manganese and nickel, fourth in bauxite, and sixth and seventh in zinc and lithium. For bauxite alone, it boasts of having 2.7 billion tonnes of reserves, with output of around 30 to 33 million tonnes per year (until early 2020s), yet still has large geographical locations rich in these minerals untapped. The total mineral reserves in Brazil are over 34 billion tonnes as of 2022. Vast resources yet modest output The problem with Brazil is it lhas huge reserves where output is not...
China issues 2025-2026 action plan to drive growth in non-ferrous metals sector
Resource development and recycling A core priority of the plan is to strengthen resource development and utilisation. Strategic initiatives will target breakthroughs in the exploration of key minerals such as copper, aluminium, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and tin. Regions with favourable conditions will be encouraged to establish renewable resource recycling bases, while efforts will be made to enhance the utilisation of non-ferrous metal scraps, particularly for copper and aluminium. High-end innovation The plan highlights innovation in high-end metal products to meet demand from key industries such as information technology and electric vehicles. It especially calls for advances in ultra-high purity metals, copper alloys, precious metal functional materials, high-end rare earth materials...
2025: US tariffs & economic challenges drive 4% drop in aluminium aerosol can deliveries to America
The first half of 2025 has been challenging for the aluminium aerosol can industry. According to the International Organisation of Aluminum Aerosol Container Manufacturers (AEROBAL), global deliveries by its members fell by 1.7 per cent, reaching approximately 3.3 billion units, compared to the same period in 2024. This marks a significant downturn compared to the same period in 2024, when global deliveries grew by 4.4 per cent, surpassing 3.4 billion units. The decline in 2025 is largely driven by weak demand in the cosmetics sector, especially in the deodorants and hairspray segments, which have traditionally accounted for the largest share of aluminium aerosol can deliveries. Get industry insights from - ALuminium in Packaging: Consumer Trends and Market Dynamics Regional Performance:...
US and Brazil edge toward tariff truce as both economies feel the heat
The White House and Planalto Palace are inching toward détente after months of trade friction that has left industries on both sides bruised. A half-hour video call this week between US President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva opened the first door toward thawing relations since Washington hit tariffs on Brazilian imports this summer. Image for representational purposes only (Source: AI Tool) Also read: EGA considers strategic takeover of Brazilian aluminium producer CBA In Monday’s call, which has been described by both sides as “friendly and positive”, Lula persuaded Trump to roll back the 50 per cent tariff on Brazilian goods, calling for a return to the original 10 per cent level and the lifting of sanctions on certain Brazilian officials. “It was...
Can Swiss aluminium stay competitive despite energy headwinds and fluctuating trade?
The Swiss government is actively backing key players as they navigate rising energy costs, focusing on boosting domestic production and promoting energy-efficient, recycled aluminium solutions. Even with challenges like skyrocketing electricity prices and fluctuating exports, Switzerland’s aluminium sector is proving its resilience, innovation and strong commitment to achieving its green transition goals. Switzerland's powering up its aluminium game Switzerland is putting a spotlight on the aluminium industry, recognising the metal's incredible versatility, sustainability and its vital role in various high-value sectors. Aluminium is prized for its lightweight nature, resistance to corrosion and its impressive recyclability, making it a key player in energy savings and the country's green...
Oceania’s aluminium and alumina output declines amid refinery closures and energy pressures
Oceania’s aluminium and alumina industries are navigating a period of transition. Refinery closures, rising power prices, and shifting global markets have reshaped output across the region. Australia remains at the centre of this activity, continuing to supply much of the world’s bauxite, alumina, and primary aluminium. Between 2023 and 2025, aging infrastructure, cost pressures, and softer market conditions have gradually weighed on production. Even so, producers are investing in modernisation, environmental improvements, and digital upgrades to make operations more efficient and resilient for the long term. Daily aluminium output holds steady From January to June 2025, Oceania produced 923 thousand tonnes of aluminium, down 1.8 per cent from 940 thousand tonnes in the same period of...
EU-India FTA talks enter 14th round: CBAM and tariffs loom over aluminium, steel and broader trade deal
All eyes are on the fourteenth round of EU-India Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations, scheduled on Monday, October 6, in Brussel, as it promises to build stronger ties of trade and economy between India and the European Union. However, there are a few challenges that have been hindering the deal to reach its ultimate goal. This time, EU Ambassador Herve Delphin has, however, assured that the bloc is committed to delivering a mutually beneficial deal, noting that the EU-India trade partnership holds critical importance at a time when tariffs and market access barriers dominate global discourse. He has also pointed out that in this challenging situation, EU-India economic ties stand apart, with EU companies generating a total annual turnover of 86 million euros in India, which is...
CODIT flags tariffs strain on South Korea, whose aluminium export growth starts faltering from 62% to 25%
US tariffs have had a serious adverse impact on Korea as the country’s economy leans heavily on exports to the American market. The strain is already visible in the country’s trade performance, with export growth slowed to 3 per cent Y-o-Y, down from 5.8 per cent in July. Although that marked the third consecutive month of growth, it was the weakest in the streak, underlining the impact of Washington’s trade barriers. A new study by the CODIT Global Evidence-Based Policy Institute, “U.S. Imposes 50% Tariffs on Aluminum and Copper: Strategic Responses for Korea,” underscores the structural vulnerabilities of Korea’s non-ferrous metals industry, valued at KRW 57 trillion (USD 40.5 billion) and dominated by small and mid-sized companies. The study finds that aluminium and steel form the...
US semi-fabricated aluminium imports drop in H1 2025 under tariff and demand pressures
Semi-fabricated aluminium products (plates, sheets, and bars), recorded a slowdown in imports into the United States during the first half of 2025. According to the latest data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the decline reflected subdued demand from downstream industries and the sharp rise in tariffs that raised import costs. Semi-fabricated aluminium imports fell 617,000 tonnes in the first half of 2025, down 2.2 per cent from 631,000 tonnes a year earlier. Monthly inflows reflected mixed trends. In January, imports jumped to 125,000 tonnes from 98,400 tonnes a year earlier, an increase of 27 per cent. February shipments rose 3.4 per cent year-on-year to 101,000 tonnes from 97,700 tonnes. March also posted growth of 3 per cent, with imports rising to 98,600 tonnes from...
August sees record global alumina production, contributed by the Americas and Africa & Asia (ex-China)
Echoing the last year’s trend, the world metallurgical-grade alumina production in August 2025 recorded a month-on-month rise, touching an all-time high. Notably, the output neared 12.5 million tonnes, with daily average production above 400,000 tonnes. The monthly production stood above 12 million tonnes earlier in July, March, and January of this year, but daily output above 400K occurred for the first time ever. However, it is to be noted that although the production in August followed last year’s M-o-M growth trend, the rate of expansion was marginally below the 1.54 per cent achieved in August 2024. According to the data shown by the International Aluminium Institute, the world alumina production in August 2025 stood at 12.495 million tonnes, led by daily average output of 403,100...
Axis Minerals vs Guinea: a $1B test for resource nationalism and investor confidence
A single government decree has crystallised a conflict at the heart of modern extractive politics: how far can a resource state push for value-addition and control before it destroys the investment bedrock it claims to need? The answer (for now) may hinge on an arbitration filing lodged in New York that demands USD 1 billion in damages after Guinea revoked the mining licence of Axis Minerals, one of the country’s largest private bauxite operators. Image for referential purpose only Also read- Odisha's AL renaissance: Angul Aluminium Park sets the stage for a global manufacturing hub A purge was announced on television On 14 May 2025, Guinea’s transitional authorities moved to “clean up” the national mining cadastre. The action, deemed public, swift and sweeping, saw the cancellation or...
Odisha – A capital of Indian aluminium industry (Part 3)
According to ‘Vision Document on Aluminium Metal for India’ published by Government, the country has reached a stage where it produces 4.16 Mtpa of Primary Aluminium and 1.8 Mtpa in the secondary sector. Here Odisha is the main contributor, currently 4 Aluminium Smelters, with a total Installed Capacity of 2.7 Mtpa. are operating in this state. Image source: Vedanta Aluminium NALCO Aluminium Smelter (0.46 Mtpa) Located in Angul of Odisha, NALCO's Smelter is based on old Aluminium Pechiney technology (180KA prebake cell) of smelting & pollution control and comprises of four potlines with 240 electrolytic pot cells in each, along with integrated facilities for casting of ingots, sows, billets, strips and wire rods and chequered sheets. Smelter unit has a 50,000 tpa Rolled Products Unit...
Alcoa’s Kwinana refinery to shutdown permanently – what impacts will it bring on economy and alumina supply chain?
On Tuesday, September 30, Alcoa Corporation, a global industry leader in bauxite, alumina, and aluminium products, confirmed the permanent closure of its Kwinana alumina refinery in Western Australia. This decision has been taken after a year of cease in operation and gradual phase-wise curtailments. Since January 2023, the 60-year old refinery has been operating at around 80 per cent of its capacity. Already the curtailment of production caused a few hundreds of job loss, from approximately 800 employees to around 250. Now, the permanent shutdown will affect the rest, as part of the initial plans where the company mentioned that job cuts would continue till a point employee numbers are scaled down to about 50. After exploring many ways to restart the refinery’s production, Alcoa finally...
Odisha's AL renaissance: Angul Aluminium Park sets the stage for a global manufacturing hub
Odisha today sits at the commanding heights of India’s aluminium industry, contributing nearly 72 per cent of the country’s primary metal output. Yet this dominance has long carried a paradox. The state has remained a smelter powerhouse without building the deep downstream ecosystem that converts hot metal into high-value products such as extrusions, rolled sheets, foils and castings. That imbalance is what the government and National Aluminium Company (NALCO) now seek to correct through the Angul Aluminium Park. If the project achieves its ambition, Odisha could transform from being merely the backbone of India’s upstream aluminium supply into a centre of value-added excellence with global competitiveness. Image for representational purpose only (source: https://nalcoindia.com/ Read our...
From $140M funding to stage-wise foundation: Know how Canyon is advancing Minim Martap bauxite
Canyon Resources Limited, the Australian miner behind the Minim Martap project in Cameroon, has rolled out a funding package to support the launch of the large-scale bauxite development. The fund aims to raise AUD 215 million (USD 140 million), subject to shareholder approval, under the management of Cameroonian banking group Afriland and Canyon’s majority shareholder, Eagle Eye Asset Holdings (EEA). The package comprises a two-tranche placement worth AUD 205 million (USD 134.5 million) and an additional AUD 10 million (USD 6.6 million) from EEA. Institutional investors will provide AUD 36 million (USD 23.62 million) in the first tranche, while EEA will commit AUD 100 million (USD 65.6 million) in the second, raising its stake in Canyon to 56.5%. These funds will be combined with Canyon’s...
