An analytical comprehension of the MSCI ACWI IMI Aluminium Index

The MSCI ACWI IMI Aluminium Index — a narrow, commodity-dependent equity yardstick that tracks 19 aluminium-sub-industry companies across developed and emerging markets reads like a textbook case of high concentration and high cyclicality. Since its launch (back-tested to May 31, 2007), the index has delivered episodic, large upside followed by brutal drawdowns, and today’s market tells the same story: stronger recent returns on the back of a much lower valuation multiple than the broader global equity market, but materially higher volatility and concentration risk.

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Recent performance: strong short-term returns, volatile long-term picture

Over the 12 months to September 30 2025, the aluminium index returned 10.87 per cent (price return); year-to-date performance stood at 27.72 per cent, while the one-month and three-month moves were 5.37 per cent and 18.56 per cent respectively, which is clear evidence of a sharp recent pickup. By contrast, MSCI’s broad ACWI IMI benchmark returned 15.11 per cent over 12 months and 16.84 per cent YTD, underscoring that the aluminium index outperformed YTD but lagged the broader market on the 1-year horizon.

Those short-term gains sit on an unstable longer-term canvas: the index’s annualised return since the May 31, 2007, inception point is negative at −3.26 per cent (price returns), showing how large multi-year troughs have offset episodic spikes. The 3- and 5-year annualised returns, however, are strong (19.48 per cent and 19.59 per cent respectively), indicating a materially improved recent cycle versus the long-run average.

The index’s annual performance table is textbook commodity-equity volatility: after a −45.82 per cent collapse in 2011, the index posted a gain of 63.29 per cent in 2017, then a drop of 36.29 per cent in 2018, followed by an uptick of 52.28 per cent surge in 2021 and a downturn of 22.77 per cent fall in 2022.