AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
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Vedanta’s Deshnee Naidoo: India’s path to growth and green energy are “inextricably linked”
At the Financial Times’ organised Energy Transition Summit India, Vedanta Resources’ CEO Deshnee Naidoo offered a tempered but confident take on the world’s shifting energy landscape. Speaking to the Financial Times, Naidoo reflected on the complexity of the moment — a time, as she put it, when the global conversation around energy transition is “in a state of emergency,” yet perhaps not as bleak as it appears. Image source: https://www.ausimm.com/ Also read: UK keeps anti-dumping duties on Chinese aluminium foil until 2029 — here’s why Naidoo argued that despite the apparent policy back-pedalling in some economies, underlying momentum remains intact. “I'd like to say that maybe you can take a step back, maybe it's not all lost right now in terms of what's happening,” she said, noting...
SHFE non-ferrous metal futures decline on week
Major futures prices for key non-ferrous metals – copper, nickel, and aluminium – on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) all declined during the week of October 10–17, as macroeconomic uncertainties weighed on market sentiment. Image source: https://www.unionfab.com/ Also read: DAILY: China's thermal coal market resilient on seasonal demand pickup As of the end of daytime trading on Friday, the SHFE's most-traded copper contract for December delivery closed at RMB 84,390 per tonne (USD 11,844 per tonne), down by 1.8 per cent from the previous week. The same day, the most-traded December nickel and aluminium contracts also slipped by 0.7 per cent and 0.3 per cent on week to end at RMB 121,330 per tonne and RMB 20,910 per tonne, respectively. The on-week declines stemmed from concerns over...
UK keeps anti-dumping duties on Chinese aluminium foil until 2029 — here’s why
The UK’s Trade Remedies Authority (TRA) has recommended keeping anti-dumping duties on aluminium foil in rolls imported from China for another five years, citing continued risks of unfair pricing and potential injury to domestic manufacturers. The recommendation, set out in the TRA’s 2025 Statement of Essential Facts (SEF), proposes maintaining existing tariffs — ranging from 14.2 to 35.6 per cent — for the period 6 June 2024 to 2029. The review, launched on 20 May 2024, assessed whether the measure — first introduced by the European Union in 2013 and later carried into UK law after Brexit — remains necessary to protect UK producers. The investigation covered the period from 1 January to 31 December 2023 and found that dumping of Chinese aluminium foil at prices below market value “would...
US aluminium scrap trade faces 2025 shake-up amid tariffs and global demand
The global aluminium market is in transition, and nowhere is that more evident than in the United States. What was once a predictable cycle of imports, recovery, and exports has, in 2025, become a story of trade shifts, policy shocks, and surging international appetite for recycled metal. In the first half of the year, tariffs on aluminium and slowing domestic demand collided with a boom in global recycling, leaving the US aluminium scrap trade looking very different from a year ago. The rise in import Between January and June 2025, US aluminium scrap imports rose 31 per cent to 430,000 tonnes from 328,000 tonnes a year earlier. The surge is anticipated to be driven by tariff impacts on primary aluminium, shifting sourcing strategies, favourable price gaps, and sustainability goals — with...
In defence of aluminium: Why science is pushing back against Trump’s vaccine claims
It’s déjà vu in Washington. Nearly two decades after the infamous Andrew Wakefield scare linking vaccines to autism — a theory since discredited, retracted, and denounced — the debate has returned to centre stage, this time armed with aluminium paranoia and presidential claims. Earlier this week, former US President Donald Trump reignited controversy by demanding that aluminium and mercury be “removed from all vaccines” and that combination doses — such as the MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccine — be administered separately. “We want no mercury in the vaccine. We want no aluminium in the vaccine. The MMR, I think, should be taken separately,” Trump declared, adding, “It seems that when you mix them, there could be a problem.” But as researchers were quick to note, what Trump calls a...
Inside the global race for gallium: The metal behind America’s military edge
Rare earth elements are central to the United States’ military technology that operates across the air, land, sea, and space domains. Their strong magnetic and electronic characteristics enable compact, high-performance motors and actuators used in precision-guided munitions, missile control, and advanced aircraft such as the F-35 fighter jet. In naval operations, rare earth magnets and alloys enhance radar, sonar, and propulsion systems aboard Virginia-class submarines and Arleigh Burke destroyers, providing the stealth and detection capability that defines modern warfare. The US uses roughly 20 tonnes each year, a quantity small enough to fit on a single truck, but its strategic weight is immense. Gallium underpins radar, communication, and satellite systems across the Pentagon’s...
DAILY: Chinese spot alumina prices drop further, futures rebound
Mysteel assessed the national average spot price for metallurgical-grade alumina with a purity above 98.6 per cent at RMB 2,961per tonne (USD 415.8 per tonne) on Thursday, down by RMB 14 per tonne from the prior day. This marked the 27th straight working day decline, Mysteel Global noted. By region, the assessed prices for the same grade in Shandong province recorded the largest daily drop, falling by RMB 20 per tonne from Wednesday to RMB 2,820 per tonne. Prices in Shanxi province and the Guangxi autonomous region declined by RMB 15per tonne to RMB 2,880 per tonne and RMB 3,100 per tonne, respectively, while those in Henan and Guizhou provinces slipped by RMB 10 per tonne on day to RMB 2,890per tonne and RMB 3,115 per tonne, respectively. Also Read: Mysteel: China alumina prices continue...
China’s electric vehicle boom powers its fight against pollution and climate change
China is intensifying its efforts to combat pollution and climate change by accelerating its shift toward electric mobility. The automobile industry has become a central pillar of this transition, as record electric vehicle (EV) sales highlight how policy incentives, technological innovation, and consumer demand are reshaping the world’s largest car market. Image for representational purpose The numbers show how fast the change is happening. In September, China’s carmakers sold a record 826,000 battery-electric vehicles, a 28.5 per cent jump from a year earlier, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). It’s the highest monthly figure yet, breaking the record set last December. A rush before the clock runs out The jump wasn’t a surprise to anyone in the business....
DAILY: China's thermal coal market resilient on seasonal demand pickup
On Tuesday, Mysteel's assessments for the prices of 5,500 kcal per kg, 5,000 kcal per kg and 4,500 kcal per kg NAR coal strengthened to RMB 720 per tonne (USD100.9per tonne), RMB 630per tonne and RMB 550per tonne, respectively, FOB northern ports basis with VAT, all higher by RMB 5per tonne from the day prior. Image for representational purpose only Some Chinese power utilities have kick-started their coal hoarding activities for this winter, as temperature drops in northern China drive up household heating demand, sources noted. A strong cold snap is forecast to sweep most regions of the country in the following five days, according to the National Meteorology Administration. Inquiries for thermal coal increased notably in the spot market in recent days, which directly elevated trading...
Ukraine’s bauxite imports surge 39% till Sept’25 — raw inputs like coke go through a fragile phase
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine’s metals and raw materials sectors have become a battleground not just militarily, but economically. The latest trade data through 2025 reveals a dynamic shift with surging imports in key raw materials, including bauxite and coke, and contradictorily weakening export flows to traditional partners, and a push by Kyiv to rebalance via foreign investment in mining. But the road ahead remains fraught with structural and geopolitical risk. Image for referential purposes only Also read: Metro Mining sets another record in Bauxite Shipment; what’s driving the surge? Surge in bauxite imports: Compensating for domestic disruption In the first nine months of 2025, Ukraine imported 27.22 million tonnes of aluminium ore and concentrate (bauxite) — a...
US aluminium imports slip 2% in H1 2025 amid tariffs and softer demand
The flow of aluminium into the United States softened in the first half of 2025 as tariffs, weaker industrial activity, and higher energy costs reshaped buying patterns. Primary aluminium imports came in at 1.81 million tonnes, a touch lower than the 1.85 million tonnes recorded in the same period a year earlier — a 2 per cent decline. The year started briskly, with first-quarter imports rising to 1.07 million tonnes from 0.91 million tonnes in early 2024 as traders rushed to move cargoes ahead of expected tariff increases. But momentum soon faded as the second quarter unfolded. Monthly shipments fluctuated sharply. Imports surged in March to 438,000 tonnes, up from 270,000 tonnes the year before, but demand tailed off almost immediately afterward. January stood at 335,000 tonnes against...
Mysteel: China alumina prices continue downward trend on supply surplus
On the supply side, China's alumina operating capacity rose above 98MTPA last week. Despite shrinking margins in the alumina sector, no cost-driven cuts or plans have been heard. Besides, according to Mysteel's tracking, China's alumina imports are expected to see a significant rise in October, which will put more pressure on the supply side. On the demand side, China's aluminium operating capacity and weekly production stopped rising last week with the first section of a relocation project in Yunnan being fully commissioned, and it's expected that China's aluminium production growth in Q4 will be very limited, which will not provide much support for alumina prices. On the cost side, seaborne bauxite prices moved down further last week, weakening the support to alumina prices on the cost...
Steady output & green move, Rio Tinto’s Q3 unveils its aluminium edge
Rio Tinto Group has released its production figures for Q3 2025, highlighting continued output across its key commodities. The firm has just rolled out a fresh operating model along with a new executive team, all designed to streamline operations and boost shareholder value. The revamped organisation now features three main divisions: Iron Ore, Aluminium & Lithium and Copper. At the same time, Borates and Iron & Titanium are under strategic review, indicating a shift towards optimising the company’s portfolio. Overall production summary In Q3 2025, the company showcased a solid production performance across its diverse range of operations. Bauxite production reached 16.4 million tonnes, indicating a robust operational quarter. Alumina output was at 1.9 million tonnes, aluminium production...
An analytical comprehension of the MSCI ACWI IMI Aluminium Index
The MSCI ACWI IMI Aluminium Index — a narrow, commodity-dependent equity yardstick that tracks 19 aluminium-sub-industry companies across developed and emerging markets reads like a textbook case of high concentration and high cyclicality. Since its launch (back-tested to May 31, 2007), the index has delivered episodic, large upside followed by brutal drawdowns, and today’s market tells the same story: stronger recent returns on the back of a much lower valuation multiple than the broader global equity market, but materially higher volatility and concentration risk. Image for representational purposes only Also read: Aluminium Alloyed, non-alloyed & scrap: India’s downstream aluminium H1 2025 trade Recent performance: strong short-term returns, volatile long-term picture Over the 12...
The quiet rise of Vietnam in aluminium: Bauxite, smelters and growth paths
As the global demand for aluminium continues to surge, Vietnam is stepping up as a vital player in the supply chain. With its rich bauxite reserves and increasing production capabilities, the country is becoming an attractive hub for investors and manufacturers looking for reliable and cost-effective sources of this lightweight metal. As the competition for aluminium supply heats up, Vietnam's emerging role in transforming trade flows in the aluminium market is certainly catching the industry's eye. Bauxite reserves and subsequent mining developments Vietnam, boasting an impressive 5.8 billion tonnes of bauxite in 2024, as per the data of the USGS. The country ranks as the second-largest holder of bauxite in the world, right after Guinea. These reserves, mainly found in the Central...
WEEKLY: China's spot alumina prices soften further after holidays
According to Mysteel's latest survey, the 44 Chinese alumina producers regularly monitored by Mysteel produced a total of 1.9 million tonnes of metallurgical-grade alumina during the week of October 3-9, up by a marginal 0.2 per cent from the previous week. Domestic alumina output remained largely stable during the holiday break, with most producers maintaining everyday operations, the survey found. Although average profit margins among the 44 surveyed refiners fell sharply by 14.5 per cent on week to RMB 135.4 per tonne (USD19 per tonne) during the survey week, many producers were generally cautious about scaling back production during the holiday as the year-end signing period for long-term alumina supply contracts was approaching, Mysteel Global learned. On the demand side,...
MONTHLY: Chinese alumina prices to weaken further in Oct
Alumina supply surplus weighed heavily on its prices throughout September. By September 30, the national average price of metallurgical-grade alumina with more than 98.6 per cent purity fell by a marked 6.5 per cent from a month earlier to RMB 3,010 per tonne (USD 422 per tonne), continuing a downward trend that began on September 2, Mysteel's daily price assessment showed. Although alumina output saw a slight retreat in the past month, the overall market supply remained at a high level. Total production of smelter-grade alumina among the 44 Chinese producers regularly tracked by Mysteel dropped by 1.7 per cent on month to 7.7 million tonnes in September, while the figure was still 12.7 per cent higher on year and marked the second-highest monthly output since the survey began in January...
When going green becomes the new profit curve for aluminium. Or does it?
The aluminium industry sits at a stark juncture where demand tied to the energy transition is set to surge. But is it a viable choice, bearing the short-term and long-term impact? Industry projections point to roughly an 80 per cent rise in aluminium demand by 2050, while the sector itself remains an outsized emitter, with direct emissions concentrated in primary production and global sector emissions measured in the order of gigatonnes. Meeting downstream demand for “green” metal while slashing the sector’s own footprint is not optional: it is an existential commercial imperative. The choice facing producers is binary in economic terms. Invest now, absorb large up-front costs and capture a durable price and capital advantage; or delay, preserve short-term margins and face growing...
