AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
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GACC: China's Jan-Nov bauxite imports jump 29% YoY
China imported 186 million tonnes of bauxite during January-November, up 29.4 per cent from the same period last year, according to the latest data released by the country's General Administration of Customs (GACC). In November alone, China's bauxite imports reached 15.11 million tonnes, rising by 22.9 per cent from a year earlier and by 9.8 per cent from October, the GACC data showed. Guinea, the largest supplier of Chinese imported bauxite, shipped 10.71 million tonnes of the material to China last month, up by 34.7 per cent from November 2024 and by 19 per cent from the previous month. Also read: GIADEC denies plan to hand Nyinahin bauxite concessions to Ibrahim Mahama The on-month increase in imports from the West African country was mainly associated with the easing impact of the...
Global aluminium scrap imports fall to 11.9 Mt, even as recycled output climbs to 41.9 Mt
The global aluminium recycling market entered 2025 with record material recovery but shrinking mobility of scrap. While worldwide secondary aluminium consumption touched 28.4 million tonnes as compared to primary consumption of 72.4 million tonnes in 2024, global recycled aluminium production reached 41.7 million tonnes during the same timeframe. Image for reference only Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with 50+ reports across the value chain According to the International Aluminium Institute’s material-flow modelling cited in AL Circle’s World Recycled Aluminium Market Analysis: Industry forecast to 2032 , total aluminium scrap flows combining domestic recycling and cross-border trade expanded from 25.6 million tonnes in 2013 to 41.4 million tonnes in 2023, marking...
45MT cap in name only! China’s influence on the global aluminium market lives on through Asia
As China edges closer to its self-imposed primary aluminium production cap of 45 million tonnes, a set of billion-dollar questions is reverberating in air. Is the global market counting days for supply deficit? Will anybody step in to bridge the gap? If yes, then who can do so at scale? While these questions seem obvious, answers may appear to be far less aligned with prevailing assumptions. However, before exploring the possibilties, let us check how the market is already reacting to the early signals of supply deficit amidst steady demand growth. How is primary aluminium responding to today’s market condition? Already the rising demand and supply deficit is making its presence felt in prices. Primary aluminium on the London Metal Exchange has climbed to USD 2,932 per tonne (as of...
India turns to self-reliance as China curbs rare earth exports - can expansion plans bridge the gap?
India’s rare earth footprint spans coastlines, riverbeds and hard rock terrains, giving the country one of the more widely distributed resource bases globally. According to the government data, India hosts around 7-7.2 million tonnes of rare earth elements oxide (REO) contained within 13.15 million tonnes of monazite, occurring across coastal beach sands, teri and red sand belts, and inland alluvium in Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Gujarat and Maharashtra. In addition, 1.29 MT of rare earths is located in hard rock formations in parts of Gujarat and Rajasthan. Despite this geological spread, India currently meets very little of its rare earth demand through local production, relying instead on imports - an imbalance that has come into focus as global...
WEEKLY: China's alumina output falls, stocks rise to new high
During the December 12-18 week, production of metallurgical-grade alumina among the 44 Chinese producers tracked by Mysteel fell to 1.84 million tonnes, down 1.3 per cent on week, according to Mysteel's survey. Though this marked the lowest weekly output level since early September, production was still 12.8 per cent higher than during the same week last year, Mysteel Global noted. The pace of decline accelerated from the marginal 0.1 per cent drop the previous week, reflecting longer and more frequent maintenance stoppages at some refineries in response to thinning profitability and production curbs for pollution control, market sources said. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with 50+ reports across the value chain Despite the lower output, the impact on market...
A run-through of 2025’s aluminium recycling projects and initiatives, contributing to decarbonisation and sustainability
2025 has been the year when major industries, especially the global aluminium industry, have been more proactive towards either starting new aluminium recycling projects or restarting the existing ones. Since the year is about to end, now is the right time to have a look at the key projects concerning the global aluminium recycling and make an informed decision for the year to come. Highlighting some of 2025’s key recycling projects The largest recycling plant in the UAE, powered by EGA Owing to the future of the UAE's recycled aluminium, especially when the country is facing an abundant surge in the overall demand for recycled aluminium, Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) has been constructing the largest aluminium recycling plant in UAE . The actual construction of this plant commenced...
2025 aluminium stock & inventory recap: Comparing Japan’s port stocks with global LME inventory trends, including a look back at 2024
Japan’s aluminium inventories at its main ports (Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka) fell slightly in November 2025, hinting at some relief from recent tightness. Total stocks were 312,100 tonnes in November, down 5.2 per cent from October’s 329,100 tonnes, but still 9.2 per cent higher than the 285,800 tonnes recorded in November 2024. Image for representation only Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with our Outlook 2026 insight s across the value chain How these three Japanese ports influence aluminium trade trends Nagoya, Japan’s biggest aluminium hub, led the monthly decline. Its stocks dropped to 159,700 tonnes in November from 170,400 tonnes in October, a decrease of almost 10,700 tonnes. This was likely due to increased buying by auto and machinery makers after a slow...
Fifteen years, over 95% recycling, 18MT GHG emissions avoided - Brazil turns aluminium cans into a climate asset
Brazil’s aluminium can industry is deeply interwined with the country’s economy and lifestyle, and this is not any recent development but the outcome of consistent, decades-long journey that began in 1989 with Latasa’s first factory in Pouso Alegre, Minas Gerais. Since then, there is no looking back! Through innovation, collaboration, and awareness, the South American country becomes a global leader in aluminium cans. And at the core of this lies sustainability. More specifically, Brazil’s ability to leverage aluminium’s defining advantage – infinite recyclability. As awareness of this attribute grew, aluminium cans gained wide acceptance as a preferred beverage packaging solution. In a decade, by 1999, the production of cans hit 10 billion units, and by 2009, it doubled to 20 billion...
From Turkey to China: Which companies are leading global aluminium foil production?
The market for aluminium foil has expanded to a total of USD 38.55 billion in 2024 and will continue to grow at a CAGR of 5.05 per cent till 2030. This is largely due to capital investments made by major manufacturers in their production capacity and the expanding applications of aluminium foil in various sectors such as packaging, construction, energy, electrical products, and electric cars. Image for representational purpose To know more about foil industry, download: Aluminium Foil and its End Uses Current Trends and Forecast till 2030 The major aluminium foil producing companies are: Assan Aluminum, Turkey Assan Alüminyum, a subsidiary of Kibar Holding, has been a leading producer of flat-rolled aluminium products since 1988. Its outputs cater to the packaging, distribution,...
Aluminium transforms the Indian job landscape as recruitments continue to climb uphill
The employment scenario in the Indian aluminium industry has witnessed a significant shift in recent times. As the country progresses towards fulfilling its vision of Viksit Bharat 2047, major Indian aluminium companies have generated employment opportunities that have reached rural areas, no longer restricted in urban communities. Rural India has been experiencing a metamorphosis, with industries emerging in resource-rich districts for all round socio-economic activity. Image for referential purposes only Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with 50+ reports across the value chain Role of the Aluminium Sector Aluminium Association of India has cited estimates depicting the industry to have already generated over 800 thousand jobs and been supporting 4,000 SMEs in the...
CNIA: China's aluminium sector peaks carbon emissions in 2024
The Action Plan for Carbon Peaking in China's Nonferrous Metals Industry, jointly released by three government departments in November 2022, requires renewable energy to account for more than 30 per cent of energy consumption in the country's primary aluminium industry during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026–2030). This was to ensure that the country's nonferrous metals sector reaches a peak in carbon emissions by 2030, though GE did not say what emissions level had been prescribed by the central government for the aluminium sector, which was not met by 2030. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with 50+ reports across the value chain According to preliminary estimates cited by Ge, carbon emissions from China's aluminium industry peaked at approximately 555 million...
GACC: China's alumina imports surge 134 per cent y-o-y in November to 20-month high
Despite the significant on-month rise, cumulative imports over January-November stood at 970,083 tonnes, down 31 per cent from the same period of 2024, the GACC data showed. By origin, Australia remained China's largest imported alumina supplier in November, shipping 83,000 tonnes and accounting for 35.8 per cent of the total monthly volume. Vietnam and Indonesia ranked second and third, with 81,327 tonnes and 31,380 tonnes, respectively. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with 50+ reports across the value chain On the export side, China shipped 167,970 tonnes of alumina in November, down 12.2 per cent from a year earlier and by 4.4 per cent from the previous month. As imports continued to rise while exports declined, China saw a net alumina import for the second...
US alumina imports rose 49.3% in H1 2025 amid refinery shutdowns
The recent uptrend in US alumina imports has had less to do with an increase in demand and more to do with refinery closures - the trend that has quietly escalated over the last few years. USGS data on alumina imports from 2023 to 2025 shows the market adjusting, with imports rebounding sharply in H1 2025. Over the first six months of 2025, US alumina imports grew to 906 thousand tonnes, registering an increase of 49.3 per cent from the same six months in the previous year. This follows fairly strong import levels in the latter half of 2024, with imports being around 730 thousand tonnes. It is evident that there has been a marked shift away from the first six months of 2024. Over this period, imports were lower by 7.3 per cent from the previous year, declining to 607 thousand tonnes from...
US and Taiwan lock ‘arms’ agreement while China condemns and forewarns
The US State Department announced a vital defence agreement to Taiwan worth USD 11.1 billion. The arms deal was announced in a nationally televised press conference addressed by Donald Trump, President of the United States, on December 17. Upon completion, it would be the greatest sales package covering advanced equipment such as HIMARS and ATACMS, with a considerable amount of aluminium content in them, from the US to Taiwan, as well as plant a seed of doubt in the heart of China. Image for representational purposes only Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with 50+ reports across the value chain Still awaiting approval from the US Congress, the contract was announced by the Defence Security Cooperation Agency, which handles the sales of US foreign military. The aim is...
LME aluminium price trend: Historical context, 2025 market dynamics & 2026 price outlook
The LME aluminium price trend over the past 3 years shows a market rebounding from earlier weakness, trading within a varied price range and settling near a multi-year high by year-end. According to Westmetall’s LME aluminium cash price cache, 2025 kick-started with aluminium pricing of USD 2,500s per tonne, reached USD 2,685.50 per tonne by March 20, 2025, and was around USD 2,545 per tonne on August 1, 2025, amid tightening fundamentals and sustained supply concerns. LME primary aluminium cash price is closing in the year 2025 at around USD 2,800, with expectations of further increases in the coming year. Image for reference only Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with Global Aluminium Industry Outlook 2026 LME aluminium prices before 2025 Before entering 2025, LME...
Balanced export and domestic usage shape Turkey’s aluminium foil market; 2025 exports already topping 100kt
Turkey’s aluminium foil industry has expanded quietly but consistently over the past few years. Production increased steadily over the period, rising 26.3 per cent from 155.18 thousand tonnes in 2020 to 196 thousand tonnes in 2023, before recording a further 8.7 per cent year-on-year increase to 213 thousand tonnes in 2024. Roughly half of this output is shipped overseas, with the remainder absorbed by the domestic market. That balance has helped Turkey to become of the top exporters of aluminium foil in the global aluminium foil market which is valued at USD 38.55 billion in 2024 and forecast to grow at a 5.05 per cent CAGR through 2030. To access the data, download: Aluminium Foil and its End Uses Current Trends and Forecast till 2030 . Image source: AL Circle Foil export picture of...
FACE answers JRC for Circular Economy Act – observes problems and offers solutions
The European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) invited the Federation of Aluminium Consumers in Europe (FACE) to respond and offer clarifications prior to updating its June 2025 position paper on aluminium scrap. On December 12, FACE published a document based on a survey conducted across 7 value-chain companies. The questions addressed a vast spectrum of aluminium scrap in the European Union - starting from its availability, through circulation, to its quality. These are to be used in the preparation of the Circular Economy Act, with the primary focus remaining on aluminium in the sector of construction. Image for representational purposes only Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with 50+ reports across the value chain The document highlights concerns regarding...
US bauxite imports fall 17.6% in H1 2025 as alumina refinery closures take effect
US imports of crude and dried bauxite kept falling in the first half of 2025, continuing a downturn that has been building for several years. Total imports came in at 849 thousand tonnes in H1 2025, down 17.6 per cent from 1.03 million tonnes a year earlier. This followed another decline in 2024, when volumes had already dropped 14.2 per cent from 1.2 million tonnes in H1 2023, showing that the market has been shrinking step by step rather than seeing a sudden collapse. The rate of contraction picked up as the year passed by. This is because imports declined considerably in Q2. The imports during the Q2 of this year were 369 thousand tonnes compared to the Q1 performance of 480 thousand tonnes, a reduction of 111,000 tonnes or a QoQ decrease of 23.1 per cent. As per the USGS data, the...
