Global aluminium scrap imports fall to 11.9 Mt, even as recycled output climbs to 41.9 Mt

According to the International Aluminium Institute’s material-flow modelling cited in AL Circle’s World Recycled Aluminium Market Analysis: Industry forecast to 2032, total aluminium scrap flows combining domestic recycling and cross-border trade expanded from 25.6 million tonnes in 2013 to 41.4 million tonnes in 2023, marking a compound annual growth rate of 4.92 per cent over the decade. By 2024, old and new scrap recycling volumes reached 41.9 million tonnes, with post-consumer scrap accounting for 25.4 million tonnes.

Yet this growth in recycled output has not been matched by trade. Global aluminium scrap imports, which climbed from 9.53 million tonnes in 2020 to a peak of 12.36 million tonnes in 2022, slipped to 11.92 million tonnes in 2024. Over the same period, exports fell much more sharply, from 17.54 million tonnes in 2022 to 12.49 million tonnes in 2024. Nations are now prioritising domestic scrap retention, no longer treating scrap as a tradable surplus but as an industrial asset.

Thailand and Italy dominate the scrap still being traded

The UN Comtrade HS-7602 dataset for calendar year 2024 shows how narrow the remaining corridor of traded scrap has become. Thailand emerged as the world’s largest reported importer of aluminium waste and scrap in 2024, absorbing 789,856 tonnes with an import value of USD 1.31 billion. Italy followed with 582,017 tonnes valued at USD 1.02 billion.

The third-largest importer, Canada, trailed far behind at 125,689 tonnes worth USD 218.9 million, while Luxembourg imported 110,106 tonnes valued at USD 234.9 million and Pakistan 100,931 tonnes worth USD 95.5 million. Beyond these five, volumes collapse into statistical irrelevance.

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China’s domestic scrap replaces cross-border flows

By 2024, China’s domestic demand for secondary aluminium had reached around 12.75 million tonnes, expanding at a CAGR of 12.8 per cent between 2020 and 2024. Aluminium scrap usage in the secondary aluminium alloy industry accounted for 59 per cent of total scrap consumption, down from 2019 levels, while the share of scrap used in remelting billets climbed to 24 per cent.

Utilisation of scrap in plate, sheet and strip production expanded by 11 percentage points compared with 2019, highlighting how scrap is being structurally pulled into higher-value downstream segments.

China still imported 1.78 million tonnes of aluminium scrap in 2024, up from 0.82 million tonnes in 2020, but the economics are deteriorating. By May 2025, SMM A00 secondary aluminium prices had fallen 8.2 per cent year-on-year to RMB 19,610 per tonne, while ADC12 declined 6.5 per cent, with estimated import losses widening to nearly RMB 600 per tonne.

India and the rest of Asia’s aluminium scrap absorption

Asia (ex. China) is becoming a significant hub for aluminium scrap processing, with countries like India, Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, and Korea playing pivotal roles due to shifts in global trade dynamics and environmental enforcement in other regions.

India’s secondary aluminium inclusive electric-vehicle registrations crossed 4.4 million units by August 2024, lifting penetration to 6.6 per cent. Demand for secondary aluminium is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7-9 per cent between 2023 and 2028.

In the rest of Asia-Pacific excluding China, recycled aluminium consumption stood at 3.96 million tonnes in 2024, accounting for 13.94 per cent of global usage, with India as the anchor market. Within the region, recycled aluminium used for steel pellets alone accounted for 0.54 million tonnes, representing 17.17 per cent of total recycled aluminium consumption.

Nearly 85 per cent of India’s aluminium scrap demand is still met through imports, underlining the fragility of domestic supply.

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The US: recycled aluminium production stabilises, scrap retention intensifies

North America produced 5.78 million tonnes of recycled aluminium in 2023, meeting roughly 32 per cent of the continent’s demand through secondary production. In 2024, canstock accounted for 38.55 per cent of total recycled aluminium utility, while pellets for steel represented 4.75 per cent.

The US, titled as the world’s largest exporter, shipped off 2.05 million tonnes of aluminium scrap in 2024. February 2025 marked a behavioural shift when scrap exports rose 5.88 per cent M-o-M to 162,000 tonnes, while imports fell 5.84 per cent to 59,700 tonnes. The Trump government imposed tariff regime on primary and downstream aluminium, and an exemption for aluminium scrap has boosted the domestic scrap retention tendency and import of aluminium scrap from trading partners.

Europe and Italy, with rising recycling efficiency, but widening internal leakage

In 2024, recycled aluminium usage in Western Europe reached 4.55 million tonnes. Extrusions alone account for 630 thousand tonnes. Italy achieved a 68.2 per cent aluminium packaging recycling rate, with beverage can recycling at 86.3 per cent, even as consumption rose 16 per cent year-on-year.

Yet Germany exported 1.19 million tonnes of aluminium scrap in 2024, and Europe continues to leak material into the US arbitrage channel. Italy’s 582,017 tonnes of scrap imports therefore reflect a structural deficit within the bloc rather than surplus demand.

Thailand and Southeast Asia: recycled aluminium’s offshore processing base

The rest of Asia-Pacific, excluding China, consumed 3.96 million tonnes of recycled aluminium in 2024, projected to rise to 4.13 million tonnes in 2025 and 4.46 million tonnes in 2026. Castings accounted for 58 per cent of total recycled aluminium usage, while canstock represented 13.64 per cent.

Thailand imported 789,856 tonnes of aluminium scrap in 2024, while its scrap exports rose to 0.50 million tonnes, up sharply from 2020 levels. By January 2025, Malaysia recorded 36,259 tonnes of aluminium scrap imports, nearly double year-earlier volumes, while Vietnam’s imports surged 70.6 per cent year-on-year to 21,895 tonnes.

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SMM imported aluminium scrap prices

By the third week of December 2025, aluminium scrap pricing across Southeast Asia had settled into a narrow trading band.

According to recent SMM data, FOB prices of shredded aluminium Tense scrap in Malaysia were USD 2,145-2,250 per tonne on October 13, averaging USD 2,197.5, down USD 10 on the day. By December 22, Malaysian mixed aluminium castings were quoted at USD 2,200-2,350 per tonne, averaging USD 2,275.

Talon scrap in Malaysia was listed at MYR 11,000-12,000 per tonne, while UBC price shows to be MYR 8,350 per tonne. In Thailand, Talon scrap was quoted at THB 86,000-91,000 per tonne, while UBC stood at THB 60,000-69,500 per tonne. Prices in this section do not change frequently as proven by all December 22 assessments being recorded with zero day-on-day change.

Thailand imported close to 790 thousand tonnes of aluminium scrap in 2024, while Malaysia’s role as a trans-shipment and processing hub has expanded sharply. The Malaysia–Thailand corridor is no longer a distressed discount market but a price-setting zone for imported scrap outside China.

Evidently, the global aluminium industry, bound by policies and greening goals, is no longer only constrained by smelter capacity or bauxite availability. It is also constrained by scrap availability. The one with the source of scrap, reserve of scrap and advanced technical solution is the next leading power of the aluminium game.