When we look back at 2025, we will remember aluminium as the metal that cracked under policy pressure long before demand fundamentals forced anyone’s hand. On the other hand, if aluminium was the year’s political barometer, copper was its economic score. By late 2025, the LME had become a battlefield where two of the world’s most essential non-ferrous metals, aluminium and copper, told different yet intimately connected stories about supply stress, geopolitical friction, climate transition demand, and human cost.
{alcircleadd}While both aluminium and copper ended the year with double-digit gains, the path they took could not have been more different.
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Aluminium’s arc in 2025 was subtle
From the outset, prices were on a recovery trajectory after the post-pandemic hangover of 2023-24. LME aluminium began 2025 around the mid-USD 2,500s per tonne on average, slowly grinding higher as supply concerns mounted and inventories drew down. By year-end, prices were approaching USD 2,900 per tonne, supported by shrinking warehouse stocks, a softer dollar, and tightening fundamentals.
The global aluminium market size from 2025-2030, with a projected value of USD 355 billion by the end of the forecast period. The market is anticipated to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.8 per cent during this timeframe.
This growth has been primarily driven by increasing demand from end-use industries, including automotive, construction, packaging, and electrical. The automotive industry, in particular, is expected to be a significant driver of aluminium demand due to the growing trend of lightweighting vehicles to improve fuel efficiency and reduce emissions.
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