China’s alumina story in 2025 was not just about how much was produced, but about how carefully the system was managed. China ended the year with 88.2 million tonnes of alumina and 44 million tonnes of primary aluminium, based on the industry’s two-to-one rule of production ratio. It sits close to the national cap of 45 million tonnes aluminium production, without pushing beyond it.
What mattered was the balance. Refineries kept running, smelters stayed within limits, and extra material was directed to where it was needed - either into domestic supply or into export markets. Alumina output rose 8.2 per cent from 2024, aluminium increased by around 2 per cent, and yet oversupply never really built up. Instead of chasing volume for its own sake, China used alumina production to keep the wider aluminium system steady, supported and within policy boundaries.
According to International Aluminium Association, metallurgical-grade alumina in January stood at 7.30 million tonnes. February slipped to 6.74 million tonnes, before March recovered to 7.32million tonnes, rising 8.6 per cent. April weakened to 6.87 million tonnes. May climbed to 7.04 million tonnes, followed by 7.12 million tonnes in June. July picked up to 7.58 million tonnes. August pushed slightly higher to 7.62 million tonnes. September eased back to 7.55 million tonnes, October rose to 7.75 million tonnes and November settled at 7.6 million tonnes. The year wrapped up with December production estimated at 7.7 million tonnes.
Daily production told much the same story. It began at 235.7 thousand tonnes in January, softened into April and then gathered pace. From 227.1 thousand tonnes in May, it moved past 244 thousand tonnes in July, crossed 250 thousand tonnes by September and reached 253.3 thousand tonnes in November.
By the end of November, China held around 110.32 million tonnes of existing metallurgical-grade alumina capacity, with operating capacity down 1.26 per cent month on month and utilisation at 82.04 per cent. To know about 2026 aluminium industry trend, visit: Global Aluminium Industry Outlook 2026.
Why production moved the way it did
Every shift had a reason - usually maintenance, adjustments, or efficiency tweaks. In April, output slipped to 6.87 million tonnes, down 6.1 per cent. Shanxi smelters carried out routine overhauls, roughly a 10 thousand tonne impact - while Chongqing paused briefly. Sichuan’s restarted after flood checks and electrolysis optimisation in Qinghai, lifting efficiency by 2–3 per cent, which softened the blow.
May improved to 7 million tonnes, up 2.4 per cent. Capacity stayed flat at 43.82 million tonnes operating, but smelters leaned toward liquid aluminium. Liquid output jumped 12 per cent year on year to 5.31 million tonnes. Casting fell 6 per cent, easing bottlenecks downstream.
June’s gain was limited by temporary idles from the Shandong-to-Yunnan transfer Phase II. The liquid ratio held at 75.8 per cent and ingot production rose 1.5 percent month on month. July gained more clearly with 7.58 million tonnes, up 6.4 per cent. New Yunnan lines of roughly 100 thousand tonnes came online. Upgrades in Chongqing and Yunnan lifted amperage by 4 kA. Peak demand drove utilisation to 98.5 per cent.
August moved to 7.62 million tonnes, up 0.6 per cent. Replacement capacity added around 20 thousand tonnes net. Liquid sales stayed strong, even as softer Shanghai Futures pricing hinted at caution. October climbed to 7.75 million tonnes, up 2.6 per cent. Yunnan brought back 30 thousand tonnes after maintenance. Shandong’s offsets wrapped up, stabilising operating capacity at 43.9 million tonnes.
In November, daily averages slipped a touch but stayed high. North China saw phased cuts and equipment adjustments. Maintenance activity increased mid-month. Heating season rules tightened carbon-emissions verification. Some producers trimmed output to comply, while others pushed ahead with upgrade projects. As maintenance finished and upgrades closed out near month-end, output recovered.
Why is China restricting aluminium production?
The cap is designed to rein in emissions - potentially avoiding as much as 65 million tonnes a year - curb air pollution, advance the 2060 carbon-neutrality goal and push the industry toward greater energy efficiency.
On top of that sits the replacement before expansion rule. No new smelting capacity comes without closing older lines first. New projects must meet strict power limits, including maximum energy use of 13,000 kWh per tonne, adopt stronger emissions control and avoid heavily polluted regions. Amperage increases can deliver small gains, but they don’t break the ceiling. Much of the industry continues to shift west and southwest - Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Xinjiang - where renewable resources and geography fit policy priorities.
China also limiting alumina production at home
Beijing has also turned its attention to alumina growth itself like aluminium. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s Action Plan for 2025–2027 calls for stricter approval, secure bauxite supply and closer environmental oversight.
Projects in heavily polluted regions will not be approved. New boehmite-based capacity will not pass. Refineries must align with matching bauxite mining rights and prove they can utilise red mud. Energy and environmental thresholds are higher than before.
Even so, more than 10 million tonnes of alumina capacity is already under construction, and according to SMM, those projects will proceed. Short-term supply expansion is therefore unlikely to be interrupted.
For these reasons, China is expanding alumina refining capacity outside its borders. In Indonesia, Phase Three of PT Bintan Alumina Indonesia, one million tonnes per year under Nanshan Holding was commissioned in June and is expected to reach full output by year-end, ahead of a planned fourth phase in 2026.
Inalum meanwhile has nearly completed the feasibility study for Phase Two of the Mempawah refinery in West Kalimantan. Construction is due to begin in December 2025, with commissioning targeted for late 2028, doubling capacity from one to two million tonnes per year.
What does China do with its surplus alumina?
Exports are becoming an outlet. In the first eleven months of 2025, alumina exports reached 2.3 million tonnes, 46.7 per cent higher than a year earlier. From January to October, Russia alone accounted for 1.679 million tonnes, or 77.18 per cent of the total. Oman and South Korea together added smaller but meaningful volumes.
And here, the loop becomes clear. China sends alumina to Russia. Russia smelts it into primary aluminium. A significant share comes back. Russian aluminium shipments to China rose nearly 56 per cent year on year to close to one million tonnes between January and May 2025. That keeps Russian smelters operating through sanctions and lets China secure metal without breaching its 45-million-tonne production cap or lifting domestic emissions.
Most of China’s alumina still feeds its own smelters. The rest flows outward, cushioning oversupply and supporting allies. Rather than a burden, the surplus is gradually turning into a tool.
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