Smm
Aluminium prices retreat as bulls reduce positions before the holiday; aluminium under pressure amid risks of post-holiday inventory buildup and weakening demand
The US September consumer confidence index plunged 6.7 points to 81.9, the lowest since 2014 and deteriorating across the board. The University of Michigan survey showed consumers' assessments of their current financial situation and that one year ahead both fell about 10 per cent, with high-price concerns continuing to brew. Inflation pressure showed no signs of easing. US Fed Governor Cook said AI demand growth, rising oil prices, and supply chain disruptions from Middle East conflicts would keep inflation under pressure, but gave no clear guidance on rate hikes. CME data showed the market-implied probability of a 25 bp rate hike in October had risen to 70.9 per cent, and the probability of a cumulative 50 bp hike by December reached 58.7 per cent. Tightening expectations strengthened...
Operating rate declines notably due to holiday; ADC12 price expected to remain strong after the holiday
This week, the aluminium scrap market price centre moved slightly lower along with primary aluminium. As of September 30, SMM A00 aluminium prices closed at RMB 24,030 per tonne, down RMB 190 per tonne from last Thursday, with aluminium scrap prices broadly following the decline. In terms of price spreads, the price difference between A00 aluminium and mixed aluminium extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan stood at about RMB 2,550 per tonne, while the price difference between A00 aluminium and shredded aluminium tense scrap was about RMB 1,384 per tonne. On the import side, imported shredded aluminium zorba prices at Ningbo Port and Tianjin Port were recorded at RMB 21,470 per tonne and RMB 21,520 per tonne respectively (tax inclusive). After the National Day holiday, the aluminium scrap...
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Domestic aluminium ingot accumulation after National Day Holiday expected to be moderate and controllable
Ahead of the National Day holiday, domestic aluminium ingot inventories continued to set fresh year-to-date lows. According to SMM statistics, as of September 30, electrolytic aluminium ingot inventories in China's major consuming regions stood at 638,000 tonnes, down 36,000 tonnes from Monday and 40,000 tonnes from last Thursday. The pace of pre-holiday destocking was relatively fast overall, leaving ample buffer for inventory accumulation during the holiday. Source: SMM On the supply side, domestic downstream demand recovered somewhat month on month in September, but processing fees for some fabricated products came under pressure, leading some downstream enterprises to cut or suspend production, which lowered their willingness to purchase molten aluminium and pulled the...
South China A00 aluminium ingot premium expected to ease from highs after national day holiday
In the final three trading days before the National Day holiday, the South China spot market stayed soft: aluminium prices continued to edge lower, the SHFE aluminium backwardation structure strengthened, and premiums over the next-month and far-month contracts were actually elevated. Ahead of the holiday, the willingness to cash out at the high basis was strong, and amid ongoing destocking, discount-priced cargoes still dominated spot circulation; demand was largely subdued, with only localized bargain-hunting replenishment and quite limited buying interest. On the whole, however, the high spot premium for aluminium ingots in South China remained largely intact. As of September 30, the SMM A00 aluminium (Foshan) spot premium over the 2610 contract stood at RMB 260 per tonne, still within...
Ex-China aluminium market runs steadily as market awaits Q4 MJP settlement
This week, the overseas aluminium market was generally mediocre, with limited trading activity across major markets. In South Korea, purchases were mainly small-scale restocking, with little change in prices. In Thailand, demand remained weak, and some sellers slightly lowered their offers due to shipment pressure. The market focused on Q4 MJP quarterly pricing, with Rio Tinto's latest offer further reduced, and market expectations suggested there is still room for the final settlement price to move lower. South Korea: Mediocre market, transactions mainly small-scale restocking This week, trading in the South Korean market was very subdued, with purchasing demand limited to small-scale restocking and no concentrated procurement seen. Sellers showed moderate willingness to offer, with...
September aluminium liquid aluminium falls short of expectations; October expected to edge down
According to SMM statistics, China's aluminium production in September 2026 (30 days) rose 2.2 per cent Y-o-Y and fell 3.2 per cent M-o-M. In September, downstream demand in China recovered somewhat M-o-M, but processing fees for some processed products remained under pressure, leading to production cuts and halts at some downstream enterprises. Purchase willingness for liquid aluminium subsequently weakened, dragging down the proportion of liquid aluminium output. The liquid aluminium ratio fell 0.5 percentage points M-o-M to 78.2 per cent during the month, coming in below expectations at the start of the month, with the main reductions coming from parts of central China and South China. Based on SMM's liquid aluminium ratio calculations, casting ingot production in China fell 6.2 per...
Aluminium billet inventory consolidates at highs; production cuts and aluminium price pullback lead to regional divergence in processing fees
According to SMM statistics, on September 30, aluminium billet inventory in major consuming regions in China stood at 149,500 tonnes, up 500 tonnes WoW from last Thursday and down 5,000 tonnes from this Monday, with inventory consolidating at highs and basically flat overall. On a year-over-year basis, inventory was about 35,000 tonnes higher than the same period in 2025 and about 41,000 tonnes higher than the same period in 2024, with total inventory still at the highest level for the same period in the past four years. From the perspective of warehouse withdrawals, aluminium billet withdrawals from September 21 to September 28 totalled 44,800 tonnes, holding near 45,000 tonnes for two consecutive weeks. By region, Foshan inventory stood at 69,500 tonnes, down 3,000 tonnes from last...
PMI recovers in peak season with structural divergence; macro pressure combined with pre-holiday adjustment dominates market
Futures: The most-traded SHFE aluminium contract opened at RMB 23,895 per tonne in the night session on September 29, reached a high of RMB 23,960 per tonne and a low of RMB 23,845 per tonne, and closed at RMB 23,910 per tonne, down RMB 110 per tonne or 0.46 per cent from the previous close. Futures came under pressure and weakened, with prices falling below the 5/10/20/40/60 moving averages across all timeframes. All moving averages turned downward, and bearish pressure was evident. Trading volume during the session was 57,873 lots, with open interest at 267,000 lots, up 1,187 lots, driven mainly by bearish position building. On the technical front, the 4-hour MACD death cross continued, with DIFF well below DEA and the green histogram expanding further, as bearish momentum continued to...
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