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SHFE aluminium pulls back while LME aluminium stabilises slightly, as the tug-of-war between longs and shorts in the aluminium market continues to consolidate
Futures: The most-traded SHFE aluminium 2611 contract closed at RMB 23,490 per tonne, down RMB 95 from yesterday's settlement price, a decline of 0.40 per cent. It opened at RMB 23,580.00 per tonne during the day, fluctuating within a range of RMB 23,415-23,630 per tonne. Prices are running below the MA5 (23,528.00), MA10 (23,825.50), MA30 (24,055.17), and MA60 (23,828.58) moving averages. The rebound met resistance and pulled back again, revealing a low-level weak consolidation structure, with the moving averages above forming key pressure resistance. The MACD indicator's DIF (-132.1547) is below the DEA (-27.3207), and the MACD green bar value is -209.6680, with bearish momentum remaining relatively strong. The core trading range for SHFE aluminium is suggested to be RMB 23,200-23,800...
Domestic and overseas aluminium prices rebound from lows; amid mixed bullish and bearish factors, aluminium prices maintain a fluctuating trend
Futures: The most-traded SHFE aluminium 2611 contract closed at RMB 23,605 per tonne, up RMB 225 or 0.96 per cent from yesterday's settlement price. It opened at RMB 23,490.00 per tonne during the day and fluctuated between 23,490 and RMB 23,675 per tonne. Prices traded below the MA5 (23,662.00), MA10 (23,912.50), MA30 (24,069.50), and MA60 (23,822.92), rebounding after a short-term decline. A rebound-from-lows consolidation structure is emerging, with the short-term moving averages above forming key resistance. The MACD DIF (-100.9745) is below the DEA (1.1214), and the MACD histogram stands at -204.1917, indicating bears still hold strong momentum. The suggested core trading range for SHFE aluminium is RMB 23,300-24,000 per tonne. The LME aluminium 3M contract settled at USD 3,062.50...
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22nd Aluminum Industry Conference and Expo (AICE 2027) to take place in Suzhou, bringing global aluminium stakeholders together
The 22nd Aluminum Industry Conference and Expo (AICE) , one of China’s most prestigious flagship exhibitions for the aluminium sector, will run from April 15 to 17, 2027, at Suzhou International Expo Center. Organised by SMM, a leading non-ferrous metal authority with over 20 years of expertise in pricing benchmarks, market intelligence and industrial research, AICE receives strong backing from global and domestic industry associations, leading manufacturers and mainstream media. AICE 2027 is set to occupy more than 10,000 sqm of exhibition space, hosting over 300 exhibitors and welcoming upwards of 30,000 professional visitors. Built upon SMM’s robust industrial database, worldwide business network and multi-channel media reach, the event functions as an international aluminium industry...
Rate hike expectations disrupt, coupled with post-holiday inventory buildup; Aluminium prices consolidate on a subdued note in the short term
The most-traded SHFE aluminium contract opened at RMB 23,255per tonne in the night session on Oct 8, hit a high of RMB 23,365 per tonne and a low of RMB 23,195 per tonne, and closed at RMB 23,220 per tonne, down RMB 165 per tonne or 0.71 from the previous close. Futures quickly dipped and weakened, with prices falling below all cyclical moving averages of 5/10/20/40/60. All moving averages turned downward to form resistance, highlighting a bearish pattern. Trading volume during the session was 74,115 lots, with open interest at 269,000 lots, down 819 lots, mainly driven by bulls cutting positions and exiting. On the technical front, the 4-hour MACD death cross continued, with DIFF well below DEA. Green bars expanded significantly, and bearish momentum continued to be released. The LME...
LME aluminium price pulls back rapidly before the holiday, then recovers from lows: Why did it fall below USD 3,150 per tonne?
Since late September, LME aluminium prices ended their previous trend of fluctuating at highs and underwent a notable pullback around China’s National Day holiday. The LME spot aluminium settlement price fell from USD 3,248.5 per tonne on September 28 to USD 3,204 per tonne on September 30, with the decline accelerating further in October. It dropped USD 84 per tonne in a single day on October 1 to USD 3,120 per tonne, and fell further to USD 3,109.5 per tonne on October 2. As of October 5, the LME spot aluminium settlement price had declined to USD 3,107 per tonne, a cumulative drop of USD 141.5 per tonne from September 28, or about 4.36per cent. Compared with the previous staged high of around USD 3,350 per tonne, the cumulative pullback exceeded USD 240 per tonne, a decline of about...
Macro stagflation concerns combined with weak demand keep aluminium prices consolidating on a subdued note in the short term
SHFE aluminium was not open during the National Day holiday. On Oct 7, LME aluminium 3M opened at USD 3,140.5 per tonne, hit a high of USD 3,148 per tonne, a low of USD 3,101.5 per tonne, and closed at USD 3,125 per tonne, down USD 18.5 per tonne from the previous close, a decline of 0.59 per cent. Futures continued to consolidate on a weak note, with prices breaking below the 5/10/20/40/60-period moving averages. All moving averages exerted downward pressure, confirming a clear bearish trend. Trading volume during the session was 16,383 lots, with open interest at 567,000 lots, up 1,296 lots, driven mainly by bearish positioning. On the daily chart, the MACD death cross persisted, with DIFF below DEA and green bars maintained, indicating bearish momentum was still being released. US...
Module deliveries support near-term frame demand; Aluminium prices under pressure amid post-holiday inventory buildup and demand weakening risks
PV aluminium extrusion: This week, operating rates at sampled PV frame enterprises remained broadly stable. Some PV frame enterprises in Hebei and Anhui reported that their October production schedules were basically flat versus September. During the National Day holiday, production lines will run normally to ensure on-time delivery of early-October orders, extending the pre-holiday rush to meet delivery deadlines. From the downstream module side, October module scheduled production is expected to see limited M-o-M change. With centralised projects gradually requiring delivery and growth in new overseas orders, total module production is expected to rebound slightly, and demand for PV frame support remains intact in the near term. Overall, the October delivery window provides phased...
Aluminium prices retreat as bulls reduce positions before the holiday; aluminium under pressure amid risks of post-holiday inventory buildup and weakening demand
The US September consumer confidence index plunged 6.7 points to 81.9, the lowest since 2014 and deteriorating across the board. The University of Michigan survey showed consumers' assessments of their current financial situation and that one year ahead both fell about 10 per cent, with high-price concerns continuing to brew. Inflation pressure showed no signs of easing. US Fed Governor Cook said AI demand growth, rising oil prices, and supply chain disruptions from Middle East conflicts would keep inflation under pressure, but gave no clear guidance on rate hikes. CME data showed the market-implied probability of a 25 bp rate hike in October had risen to 70.9 per cent, and the probability of a cumulative 50 bp hike by December reached 58.7 per cent. Tightening expectations strengthened...
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