AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
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US crude and dried bauxite imports uptick in Q3 but remain insufficient to offset Y-T-D decline
The United States crude and dried bauxite imports continued to increase sequentially in the third quarter of 2024 but could not offset the overall year-to-date downfall. The Q-o-Q growth in Q3 import was primarily driven by Turkey with a significantly increased supply of crude and dried bauxite, even higher than the same period of the previous year. Image Source: LinkedIn According to the US Census Bureau Survey, the United States imported 553,000 tonnes of bauxite, extending the quarter-on-quarter growth. In Q3, the import volume was 26,000 tonnes or 5 per cent higher sequentially, echoing the growth rate seen in the second quarter. In Q2, the United States crude and dried bauxite imports stood at 527,000 tonnes versus 501,000 tonnes in the first quarter. However, annually, the United...
Surge in export orders to avoid increased costs from December 1 leads to steady aluminium billet output in Nov’24
In November 2024, just ahead of the cancellation of the aluminium semis export tax rebate on December 1, overseas orders for Chinese extruded aluminium products surged, driving some billet enterprises to increase operations. Therefore, despite one less operating day in November than October, China’s domestic primary aluminium billet production per day remained stable at 49,000 tonnes. Image Source: Guoxin Aluminum According to the Shanghai Metals Market, the monthly output also stood firm at 1.477 million tonnes in November versus 1.507 million tonnes in October. That reflected a 2 per cent drop month-on-month, primarily due to one operation day less. The number of sample enterprises in the SMM monthly survey was 169, with a total capacity of 31.205 million tonnes, unchanged from the...
Rising operation costs weigh down the United States primary aluminium output and scrap recovery in Q3
According to the US Geological Survey data, the United States' primary aluminium production slightly rebounded in the third quarter, standing at 167,600 tonnes versus 167,000 tonnes in Q2. However, despite the sequential increase, the Q3 output volume was less than the Q2 production of 172,000 tonnes. Also, the output in Q3 recorded a year-on-year fall of 9.89 per cent from 186,000 tonnes. Image Source: Alcoa Corporation The above data indicates the sluggish trend in the United States' primary aluminium production prevails , primarily due to rising production costs. Companies like Alcoa cited higher raw material prices and overall economic pressures as key factors impacting their output. In September 2024, the output was down by 2.5 per cent M-o-M, amounting to 54,600 tonnes versus 56,000...
Indian aluminium industry: Is the fight for higher import duties justified?
The Indian aluminium industry has been encountering challenges in recent times, principally due to the surge in competitively priced imports from countries like China. The industry has been advocating for higher import duties to level the playing field and protect domestic producers. But is it at all necessary? And, if so, why? The current state of affairs India's aluminium production has steadily increased over the years, with the country producing around 4.1 million tonnes of aluminium in FY2022-23. However, despite this growth, the industry has been struggling to compete with cheap imports. In FY2022-23, India imported around 1.4 million tonnes of aluminium, with China being the largest supplier, accounting for over 40 per cent of the total imports. "The current import duty of 7.5 per...
Maybank's vision of a net zero economy expands to aluminium and steel sector
Maybank has expanded its white paper series to include a focus on the aluminium and steel sectors, reinforcing its commitment to driving the transition to a net-zero economy. This initiative reflects Maybank's dedication as a Net Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA) signatory to align its operations with sustainability goals while supporting clients in their transition journeys. Maybank is Malaysia's largest bank by market capitalisation and total assets, operating throughout the country and broader region. A white paper is an informational document issued by a company or not-for-profit organisation to promote or highlight the features of a solution, product, or service it offers or plans to offer. As a result of its initial decarbonisation efforts communicated in its maiden white paper titled,...
Environment protection controls requiring production cuts lead to China's reduced aluminium output in November 2024
According to the Shanghai Metals Market survey, China’s domestic aluminium production destabilised in November 2024 (30 calendar days), recording a month-on-month downfall of 3.21 per cent, attributed to environment protection-related controls requiring production cuts during the dry season. In addition to production cuts, increased alumina prices were another factor that contributed to the reduced aluminium output volume in China during the period under review. Image Source: Getty Images However, the resumption of some aluminium projects, which were under maintenance in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and other regions, slightly offset the monthly fall and led to a year-on-year hike of 2.74 per cent. As per the SMM data, China’s domestic aluminium production in November was approximately 3.583...
“The aluminium can sector for beverages in Brazil is a great example of a circular economy,” Cátilo Cândido, Executive President of Brazilian Association of Aluminum Can Manufacturers (Abralatas)
AL Circle presents a brief conversation with Cátilo Cândido, Executive President of the Brazilian Association of Aluminum Can Manufacturers (Abralatas). Mr Cândido is a Brazilian lawyer and the Executive President of Abralatas. An executive with more than 20 years of experience in public affairs, strategic business development and management, with experience in industry, commerce, and retail. He has occupied several leadership positions throughout his career. Here, Mr Cândido has explained the current situation of aluminium can industry in Brazil, the third-largest market in the world after the United States and Canada. AL Circle: Please shed some light on why aluminium cans are so widely consumed in Brazil? In an interview, you said a complex interplay of scale, temperature, and economy...
Rising global demand for aluminium foil during festive seasons: a peek into production, revenue and more…
The festive season, especially around Christmas, brings with it a surge in demand for aluminium foil, a versatile product indispensable in many households and industries. With its primary application in the food and beverage sector, aluminium foil has become a staple for packaging, storage, and cooking, showcasing its multi-dimensional utility. A booming market The aluminium foil manufacturing industry has grown into a vast global enterprise. According to a report by Verified Market Research, the Aluminium Foil Used in Food Packaging Market was valued at USD 14.49 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 19.82 billion by 2031, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4 per cent over the forecast period. Another report by AL Circle, titled ‘Aluminium Foil and its End Uses:...
China is nearing the year-end with higher alumina production each month. November is no exception
China’s metallurgical-grade alumina production continued to grow in November 2024, driven by expanded capacity. As of December 6, China’s metallurgical-grade alumina capacity stood at about 103.02 million tonnes, up by 0.31 per cent from 102.7 million tonnes in the previous month. Image Source: Made-in-China Operating rate and output volume According to the Shanghai Metals Market survey, the actual operating capacity of alumina refineries increased by 3.24 per cent in November, compared to a 2.93 per cent growth in October, leading to a record-high capacity. The operating rate in the specified period stood at 86.63 per cent against 84.22 per cent in the previous month. The increased capacity and operating rate drove China’s monthly alumina output in November. Month-on-month, the...
"We are a mining and resources company with a global footprint and a deep-rooted commitment to sustainable practices", Victor Tan, CEO, TOP International Holding
Victor Tan is the CEO of TOP International Holding. As CEO, he leads the company’s strategic direction and drives growth for the company. Founded in 2014, TOP has grown exponentially over the years. Under his leadership, TOP became Malaysia’s biggest bauxite exporter in 2015 and pioneered anchorage loading in the country. In 2017, TOP was the fastest-growing physical coal trader in Indonesia. As a testament to his unwavering commitment to excellence, TOP has earned industry accolades such as bagging The KPMG & The Business Times Enterprise 50 Award twice, Deloitte Best Managed Companies twice, and was identified by Enterprise Singapore to participate in Scale-Up SG, a programme that grooms local companies into future global champions. He is also a member and contributor at the Singapore...
UK’s aluminium packaging recycling further grows in Q3, leading to 81% annual target achievement
The third quarter of 2024 witnessed a continued rise in aluminium packaging recycling volume across the United Kingdom, and that too at a much higher growth rate than in the previous quarter. Compared to a 3 per cent increase in Q2 , the United Kingdom's aluminium packaging recycling volume surged by 15 per cent in Q3, which ended September 30, according to the data published on the National Packaging Waste Database by the Environment Agency. Q3 recycling volume The United Kingdom's total collection of aluminium packaging in Q3 was 43,466 tonnes, including 32,293 tonnes through kerbside and 10,910 tonnes recovered from incinerator bottom ash (IBA). Although the total collection decreased Q-o-Q, the recycling rate improved significantly. The 17 per cent decline in aluminium packaging...
German industrial sector shows no recovery signs, Q4 at risk: ING
Germany's industrial downturn persisted in October, with production declining further, as reported by ING. Industrial output dropped by 1 per cent month-on-month, following a steeper 2.5 per cent contraction in September. Production has fallen nearly 5 per cent compared to last year's period. This weak start to the fourth quarter heightens concerns of a potential winter recession for Europe's largest economy. The industrial outlook remains challenging The challenges faced by German industry over the past few years exemplify the broader struggles of the nation's economy. Caught between cyclical downturns and structural obstacles, Germany has had to confront the reality that its traditional macroeconomic model—reliant on affordable energy and accessible export markets—is no longer...
US aluminium cans recycling rate drops to 43%, prompting associations to revisit policies to meet 70% goal by 2030
A recent survey by the Aluminum Association and the Can Manufacturers Institute (CMI) has shown a surprising downtrend in consumer aluminium cans recycling in the United States. Once averaging at around 52 per cent in the 1990s, the rate has decreased to 43 per cent in 2023. However, a silver lining is that aluminium cans still have a higher recycling rate than glass, with a recycling rate of 39.6 per cent and plastic bottles with 20 per cent. Image Source: The Aluminum Association Learning and suggestions Outdated recycling infrastructure and less passive approach to recycling policy could be the reasons behind the drop in the United States’ aluminium cans recycling rate. Charles Johnson, president & CEO of the Aluminum Association, said: “Our current approach to recycling in America is...
South America’s alumina production hits YTD high with M-o-M increase of 9.3%
Alumina production in South America reached this year’s peak, marking a month-on-month hike of 9.3 per cent and a year-on-year increase of 5.52 per cent, found the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) survey. This significant increase in South America’s alumina production contributed to the world’s output to a new high, in addition to many other major alumina-producing countries or regions. Image Source: IAI According to IAI, South America produced 1.07 million tonnes of alumina during October 2024, compared to 979,000 tonnes in September and 1.014 million tonnes in October 2023. The daily average output was 34,500 tonnes in October, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 5.83 per cent from 32,600 tonnes and a year-on-year rise of 5.5 per cent from 32,700 tonnes. From January to...
Indonesia's strategic move: From bauxite to billets, a vertical integration play is on
In a significant development for the global aluminium market, Indonesia is poised to become a major player in the industry, driven by its vast reserves of bauxite and a strategic partnership with China. Image Source: https://leadthecharge.org/ According to recent data, Indonesia's bauxite reserves stand at an impressive 1 billion tonnes, making it an attractive destination for aluminium producers. The country's ambitious plan to produce everything in-house, from bauxite to billet, is a key element of the government's broader electric vehicle (EV) strategy. Indonesia aims to produce 600,000 EVs by 2030 and has partnered with four Chinese EV companies - Neta, Wuling, Chery, and Sokon - to build an EV production and export hub in the country. The partnership is expected to bring significant...
Uptrend seen in China’s aluminium wire and cable export orders likely to offset year-end decline; SMM projects 4% growth
China’s aluminium wire and cable exports recovered in October 2024, marking a month-on-month surge of 53.8 per cent and a year-on-year increase of 13.64 per cent. However, the monthly uptick in October was not enough to counter the sluggish performance throughout the year-to-date, attributed to tight domestic end-user sector demand, particularly from the building and construction sector. Image Source: Made-in-China According to the Shanghai Metals Market survey, the export volume in October was 14,300 tonnes versus 9,300 tonnes in September , generating a value of $41.5 million compared to $28.06 million. Thus, the export value also demonstrated M-o-M hike of 47.9 per cent. Specifically, exports of steel-core aluminium-stranded wire and similar products were 8,480 tonnes, up 82 per cent...
Mumbai's Metal Fairs: A 3-Day trendsetting extravaganza of innovation, networking, and business
From November 27 to November 29, 2024, the amalgamation of four metal fairs — International Exhibition for Metallurgical Technology (METEC) India, Tube India, wire India and India ESSEN WELDING & CUTTING took place in Mumbai's Bombay Exhibition Centre (NESCO). This marked the return of the fair to the Mumbai chapter after a significant 2-year hiatus, with over 18,000 visitors expected. The event provided an excellent platform for networking and business opportunities, underscoring the city's importance in the metal technology and manufacturing industry. This year's trade fair has seen a remarkable global participation from aluminium industry among others, with companies from over 22 countries including France, Austria, United Kingdom, Belgium, Luxembourg, Spain, Brazil, Canada, China,...
China’s export tax rebate cancellation sparks mixed reactions, where SMM’s positive outlook on aluminium semis industry stands out
The Chinese aluminium market has been in deep thought since the Ministry of Finance announced the removal of export tax rebates for a wide range of products, including aluminium plates, sheets, strips and foils. The concern is clear, as exports of aluminium plate, sheet and strip make up 50 per cent or above of the country’s total aluminium semi-finished product exports. Image Source: The Wall Street Journal According to the Shanghai Metals Market, China’s monthly aluminium semis exports in recent years have ranged between 400,000 and 600,000 tonnes, of which aluminium plate, sheet and strip exports account for 200,000 to 350,000 tonnes. Additionally, aluminium foil exports exceed 100,000 tonnes each month. Together, aluminium plates, sheets, strips, extrusions, and foils represent over...
