Based on the latest data revealed by the International Aluminium Institute, the world's primary aluminium production is set to surpass the previous year's output, marking a new year's high. In December 2024, the world's primary aluminium output needs to achieve only above 4.194 tonnes to exceed the 2023 total of 70.716 million tonnes. From January to November 2024, the world's primary aluminium production reached 66.522 million tonnes.
In November 2024, the world's primary metal output decreased by 3.07 per cent M-o-M, reaching 6.04 million tonnes. However, according to a year-on-year calculation, the production saw an increase of the same percentage, 5.863 million tonnes.
However, calculating the daily output of November vs October, the monthly decline was only due to a less operational day. In October 2024, the daily average production was 201,000 tonnes in 31 days, while the production in November was 201,300 tonnes in 30 days. So, there was steady production in November, maintaining a volume above 6 million tonnes for the fifth consecutive month.
Region/country-wise production
China, the world's highest producer of primary aluminium, churned out 39.653 million tonnes from January to November 2024, compared to 38.101 million tonnes during the corresponding period of the previous year. That reflected an annual increase of 4.07 per cent, mirroring a rise in China's contribution to the world aluminium production from 58.92 per cent to 59.6 per cent.
In November 2024, China produced 3.609 million tonnes of primary aluminium, recording a downfall of 3.24 per cent from 3.73 million tonnes, aligned with the monthly decline in the global output during November. On an annual basis, China's primary aluminium output demonstrated a hike of 4.60 per cent from 3.45 million tonnes.
In the Gulf Cooperation Council, primary aluminium production in November 2024 was 514,000 tonnes, down by 2.84 per cent from 529,000 tonnes in October but up by 0.78 per cent from 510,000 tonnes in November 2023. In the first eleven months of the year, the GCC region produced 5.726 million tonnes of primary aluminium, accounting for 8.61 per cent of the world's total output. During the same period of the previous year, the GCC's output was 5.687 million tonnes, contributing 8.79 per cent to the global production.
In Russia & Eastern Europe, the world's third-largest primary aluminium production hub, the output through the first eleven months of 2024 was 3.808 million tonnes, up by 3.73 per cent from 3.671 million tonnes during the corresponding period of the previous year. The year-to-date contribution to the world aluminium production is 5.72 per cent versus 5.67 per cent last year.
If a steady production trend continues worldwide, touching the 6 million tonnes mark in December 2024, the world's primary aluminium production would likely come in at 72.52 million tonnes at the end of the year, marking an annual increase of 2.55 per cent. The output in 2023 saw a year-on-year hike of 2.43 per cent from 69.038 million tonnes to 70.716 million tonnes.
If the 2024 output estimation is met, it will be near AL Circle's initial forecast of 72 million tonnes for the year. However, close monitoring is required given the ongoing winter heating season in China, which has regulated environmental protection policies leading to production cuts at smelters. To know our forecast for 2025, pre-book the upcoming report Global Aluminium Industry Outlook 2025.
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