AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
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Bauxite price surge regains market confidence at ASX, with stocks projected to return to IPOs
In conversation with Stockhead, a business news publication dedicated to connecting investors with emerging ASX-listed companies, Lowell Resources Fund's chief investment officer, John Forwood, highlights that the booming bauxite prices are bringing attention back to ASX stocks and how. To his surprise, the unprecedented rise in bauxite and alumina prices has made some of Australia's top fund managers vigilant of these commodities. Image Source: The Australian Aluminium Council In the Chinese market, the world's largest consumer of bauxite and alumina, Guinea bauxite price is currently standing at US$92 per tonne, marking an increase of about 20 per cent since the bauxite export suspension by EGA-owned Guinea Alumina Corporation (GAC) in early October. Since the beginning of the year, the...
Urban mining: The promising path in the US to closing probable mineral gaps
The United States Federal Government has strategised to tackle the import gap of metals, including aluminium, with an enhanced focus on recycling. According to mining.com, the Department of Energy (DOE) has announced that it will invest US$ 22 million to exalt Golden Aluminum's recycling operations in Colorado. Image Source: https://globalscraptrading.com/ The department is also in search of building from scratch opportunities for an electric vehicle (EV) battery recycling chain. It has allocated financial aid for the latest scrap sorting technology and processing capacity. In the stance of B2U Storage Solutions, they have even considered transporting used batteries. What is urban mining? Urban mining is the process of exploring, extracting and refining metal from anthropogenic stocks...
Japan’s aluminium shipment premium offer grows 31-49% for Q1 2025 on supply crunch anticipation
One month to go to 2025, and global aluminium producers have begun to offer new premiums to Japanese buyers for the first quarter of the New Year. And not much to our surprise, the premium offered for the March quarter is 31 to 49 per cent higher than the current quarter’s premium, anticipating a supply crunch in Asia following the 13 per cent tax rebate cancellation for aluminium semi-manufactured products by the Chinese government from December 1, 2024. Image Source: LinkedIn According to three sources involved in quarterly pricing talks on Friday, global aluminium producers have offered $230-260 per tonne of premiums to Japanese buyers versus $175 per tonne of premiums in Q4 2024. The premium is cost paid for primary aluminium shipments agreed to pay over the London Metal Exchange...
World alumina production in October surpasses all historical records with highest-ever daily average output
According to the International Aluminium Institute survey, the world’s alumina production in October 2024 reached a new high in tandem with the growth across all the major producing regions. The daily average output also exceeded all the previous records, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.26 per cent. The monthly production stood at 12.61 million tonnes in October, up by 5.6 per cent from 11.94 million tonnes in September and 3.62 per cent more than 12.17 million tonnes in October 2023. This trend of monthly and year-on-year growth in alumina production is typical for this time of year. Historical data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) shows that global production of aluminium ore has consistently exceeded 12 million tonnes every October since 2022. Daily average...
European aluminium foil shows positive market sentiment, with deliveries growing by 15% in Q3 2024
The European aluminium foil industry demonstrated strong performance in the domestic market this year, with increased deliveries, according to the European Aluminium Foil Association (EAFA). In the third quarter of 2024, which ended September 30, Europe's domestic foil deliveries rose 15 per cent year-on-year, contributing to an overall year-to-date gain and indicating a recovery in demand and applications, particularly in the food and packaging industries due to evolving consumer demands and technological breakthroughs. Guido Aufdemkamp, Executive Director of EAFA, said: "While demand for packaging applications and household foil remained strong, demand for technical applications is still weak due to sluggish activity in the automotive and construction sectors. The current upward trend...
Suriname bauxite project attracts Chinalco; Chinese miner agrees to pump in $426 million
Aluminium Corporation of China Limited, popularly known as Chinalco, a state-owned multinational company, is likely to invest around $426 million in bauxite mining in Suriname, said the chairman of a Surinamese presidential mining commission on Monday, November 25. If this investment is approved by parliament, Chinalco will begin bauxite mining by the middle of 2025 to produce 6 million tonnes of the key ore of aluminium annually, reported government advisor Daniel Lachman. The Surinamese presidential mining commission also said that Suriname, the South American country, is likely to have a 13 per cent share in the project. Bauxite mining and processing is the major industry that drives the economy in Suriname, with reserves present in the Bakhuis region of western Suriname. The Bakhuis...
Finnish aluminium exports to Russia doubles with no 'technical' violations of the sanction
Amid mounting tensions between Russia and European Union (EU) EU nations, recent revelations about Finnish aluminium exports doubling to Russia have stirred debates over sanction compliance. A family business from Turku, an international manufacturer of studs for winter tyres, is responsible for the export boost. This report came as Finland's broader trade with Russia kept witnessing a steep plunge, falling by nearly 69 per cent over two years due to stringent sanctions and shifting geopolitical dynamics. Image Source: https://www.transmico.com/ The contradiction: aluminium exports vs. overall trade decline While most Finnish companies have reduced their trade with Russia, a select few have capitalised on exceptions in EU sanctions. These loopholes allow the export of non-restricted...
China doubles down on export growth, defying global pressure over subsidised goods
Despite mounting global resistance to its surging shipments of low-cost goods, China has pledged to increase support for exporting companies. Beijing's new policies aim to sustain its export boom, which is on track to reach record levels, even as trading partners accuse it of undercutting local industries and distorting global markets. Wang Shouwen, China's international trade representative and vice minister of commerce, announced a range of measures to support exporters. These include financial aid, insurance assistance, and directives to expand cargo capacity through state-backed shipping firms. "Our focus is on promoting high-quality trade and addressing practical challenges faced by Chinese companies," Wang said during a press conference in Beijing. When keeping an eye on the...
World primary aluminium production recovers in October 2024 to a new high
The world’s primary aluminium production regained momentum in October 2024 after an intermittent decline of 3.19 per cent in the previous month. Owing to the increase across all the major primary aluminium-producing regions, the world’s output reached a new high in October, exceeding all the earlier records. Recovering more than what it lost in September, the world’s primary aluminium production in October even exceeded the record volume of 6.205 million tonnes seen in August. According to the International Aluminium Institute’s (IAI) data, the output volume in October grew by 3.56 per cent M-o-M and 1.27 per cent Y-o-Y, reaching 6.221 million tonnes. In September 2024, the world’s primary aluminium output was 6.007 million tonnes; in October 2023, it stood at 6.143 million tonnes. The...
Metal Mayhem: Germany and Turkey drag European aluminium alloy ingot market down
The European market for aluminium alloy ingot has experienced a significant devaluation, with both Germany and Turkey playing a pivotal role. Their substantial price reductions, amidst economic challenges and struggles in the automotive sector, have contributed to a pronounced downward trend in the week ending November 15th. Image source: https://www.sav-al.com/ Germany rolls downhill According to chemanalyst.news, Germany's aluminium alloy ingot prices dropped by 2 per cent as the country struggles with financial challenges. Its economy is in recession for two years in a row. In H1 (first half) of the ongoing year (2024), it contracted by 0.2 per cent compared to the same duration in 2023. The nation's financial growth course has witnessed multiple speed breakers affected by insufficient...
US aluminium scrap recovery grows at a higher rate in Aug’24 in contrast to sluggish primary metal output
The United States’ increased focus on the secondary aluminium industry led to a year-on-year decline in its primary aluminium production for another month but a rise in aluminium recovery from scrap. According to the data from the US Geological Survey, the United States’ primary aluminium production in August decreased 6,000 tonnes or 9.7 per cent year-on-year, while scrap recovery gained 17,000 tonnes or 6.07 per cent. Delving deeper into the data, we find the United States’ primary aluminium production in August stood at 56,000 tonnes against 62,000 tonnes in August 2023 and 57,000 tonnes in July 2024. In line with the decline in monthly production, the United States average daily production in August also slipped over the year as well as month. On a year-on-year basis, the daily output...
Alumina production dip at Hydro Alunorte refinery contributes to South America’s Q3 2024 output fall
The decline in South America’s alumina production for two months in a quarter led to a downfall in the total Q3 output. In July and September, South America’s alumina production decreased by 5.36 per cent and 3.83 per cent, respectively, resulting in a Q3 fall of 3.49 per cent from the previous quarter, found the International Aluminium Institute survey. Image Source: Norsk Hydro on LinkedIn In both July and September, South America’s alumina production stood at 1 million tonnes, amounting to 989,000 tonnes and 979,000 tonnes. Only in August did the production volume reach above 1 million tonnes for an intermittent period but edged a year-on-year decline of 1.45 per cent from 1.033 million tonnes. In total, South America’s alumina production through the third quarter of 2024 amounted to...
Beijing slashes tax rebates, exporters pass costs to buyers
Industry insiders revealed that Chinese exporters in diverse sectors, including aluminium products, used cooking oil (UCO), and solar power equipment, are preparing to hike prices and renegotiate contracts following Beijing's decision to cut tax incentives. The policy change, announced on November 15, 2024, will take effect on December 1, 2024, and significantly impact exporters. The export tax rebate rate for certain products, such as refined oil, photovoltaic components, batteries, and specific non-metallic mineral products, will drop from 13 per cent to 9 per cent. Moreover, the rebate will be entirely eliminated for aluminium and copper products as well as chemically modified oils and fats, including UCO. The move is expected to send ripples across global markets. Analysts predict...
Canned drinks take centre stage at festivals
The latest research by the UK’s Can Makers shows that more people now recognise the benefits beverage cans offer. Norman Lett, spokesperson for the Can Makers, discusses how a greater variety of canned beverages, convenience, recyclability and other factors are making cans the preferred packaging of choice for many festival goers in the UK. More brands are also switching to cans. “The shift to cans which many brands are now making not only highlights the growing importance of sustainability throughout the value chain but underscores the positive impact of cans when it comes to storytelling, branding and timely, culturally relevant marketing,” Lett says. Festivals that promote sustainable practices New research has shown that canned beverages which can be recycled easily, are the go-to...
October 2024: Transition phase to off-season results in decreased billet production in China
China's primary aluminium billet output in October 2024 retreated from its previous month's high as many billet manufacturers reduced their production pace due to several unfavourable factors like high selling prices, lower processing fees, and sluggish downstream demand. Usually, October is a season when the market takes a turn aligned with the year-end goals. Image Source: Made-in-China According to the Shanghai Metals Market survey, China's daily average production of primary aluminium billet in October lost what it gained last month despite having one more operating day. The average daily output dropped 2,000 tonnes M-o-M to 49,000 tonnes per day, resulting in a monthly output of 1.507 million tonnes in October, as against 1.528 million tonnes in September. That recorded a...
65 years of Guinea-China partnership: CDM's role in revolutionising mining and driving sustainable development
Guinea and China celebrated a historic milestone on October 4, 2024, as they commemorated 65 years of the reestablishment of their diplomatic relations. This enduring partnership, a cornerstone in sub-Saharan Africa, has thrived through collaboration in critical sectors such as education, health, energy, infrastructure, and mining. Among these, mining stands out as a transformative force, spurred by the significant influx of Chinese investments over the last two decades. From 2008 to 2017, China's involvement was embodied by major players such as Chalco, China Power Investment (CPI), and the Compagnie de Développement des Mines Internationales (CDM). CDM, a subsidiary of CHICO, a Henan-based Chinese state-owned enterprise, entered the Guinean mining scene in May 2008. In October 2010, it...
NALCO, Hindalco, Vedanta experience share surges following China’s decision to revoke export tax rebates: Know why?
China’s decision to revoke tax rebates on aluminium has caused two opposite reactions in the global market. On the one hand, it has brought a frown to global downstream producers and end-user manufacturers in anticipation of a limited supply of metal and higher prices; on the other, it has brought hope for improved margins among primary aluminium producers due to global price hikes. On this note, some of the primary aluminium giants in India have experienced a notable surge in their shares. Companies like NALCO, Hindalco, and Vedanta reported that their shares raised as much as 7 per cent on Monday, November 18, following China’s announcement of its decision on Friday , November 15. Even a Malaysia-based aluminium company, Press Metal, gained 7.5 per cent to RM4.73, marking its highest...
Climate action or trade barrier? Debate over CBAM stalls COP29 agenda
The UN climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, opened amidst intense behind-the-scenes negotiations as nations gathered for COP29 — the 29th Conference of Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Early headlines touted a preliminary success as delegates agreed on key regulations to facilitate global carbon credit trading. Yet, this development came with contentious undercurrents, prompting critics to argue that such mechanisms could allow wealthier nations to finance emission reductions abroad and procrastinate on more costly domestic climate action. The opening plenary session experienced significant delays, stretching into the early hours of November 12, 2024, following demands from the BASIC coalition — comprising Brazil, South Africa, India, and...
