AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
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India takes the front seat in EV evolution with half a million sales: Honda to join the force soon!
The global transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is revolutionising the automotive industry, driven by increasing concerns over air pollution and stringent emission regulations imposed by governments worldwide. With the environmental imperative to reduce fossil fuel dependency, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) have gained substantial traction among consumers, with USD 4216.91 billion in 2024. This shift has also sparked a corresponding rise in the demand for lightweight materials such as aluminium in automobile manufacturing. One of the key factors accelerating the adoption of EVs is their lower maintenance cost compared to traditional petrol and diesel vehicles. The COVID-19 pandemic initially dampened the automotive market, with a sharp decline in...
Hero and TVS make solid strides in strengthening India’s electric vehicle segment for the long run
India’s largest two-wheeler manufacturer, Hero MotoCorp, is intensifying its efforts in the electric vehicle (EV) space to capture a larger market share. The company, which launched its Vida brand in 2023, has been expanding its presence across the country, with a presence in over 116 cities and 203 touchpoints. Downstream product manufacturer, aluminium die-casted automotive parts manufacturer Sundaram Clayton (also known as TVS Holdings), is also in on its game-changing strategy to revolutionise the face of the electric vehicle market in India. Hero to establish independent electric vehicle unit Hero MotoCorp Ltd, one of India’s leading two-wheeler manufacturers, continues to intensify its efforts in the electric vehicle (EV) sector. With a market share in the mid-single digits, the...
Here’s the other side of the story: where will Canada redirect its 3.3 million tonnes of aluminium exports with US tariffs in effect?
February 4, 2025 – today is the day the United States' 25 per cent additional import tariffs on Canada, Mexico and 10 per cent on China are coming into effect. Already, the tariffs, even before being implemented, have brought several opinions from industry leaders on possible changes in market dynamics for the United States and the rest of the world. Jorge Eduardo Dyszel, a risk management consultant and expert in base metals and the London Metal Exchange, has weighed in on the situation. He suggests the United States importers will either need to pay the 25 per cent tariff or seek alternative sources for commodities like aluminium. He also warns that a reduced supply of aluminium could lead to higher premiums for US buyers, potentially resulting in a contango curve—an upward-sloping...
US vs. China: Washington tightens hold on world’s largest economy title
The United States in 2024 further solidified its position as the world's largest economy, with resilient consumer spending driving its continued lead over China for the third consecutive year—at least by one key measure. According to data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on January 30, 2025, US GDP grew by 5.3 per cent in 2024 before adjusting for inflation. In contrast, China's nominal GDP expanded by 4.2 per cent, as reported by the country's National Bureau of Statistics a few days back. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Note: Annual GDP, unadjusted for price changes Nominal Gross Domestic Product (Nominal GDP) represents the total market value of all goods and services produced within a country's economy during a specific period. Unlike other GDP measurements, Nominal GDP...
2024: Impact Minerals’ excellence in exploration decoded
Though it is only the conclusion of quarter two for Impact Minerals in December 2024, the company’s entire calendar year 2024 performance data have poured in with its December quarterly report publication. Throughout the year, Impact Minerals has taken quite a few steps ahead across various exploration and development projects, notably its flagship Lake Hope High Purity Alumina (HPA) Project in Western Australia. The consolidated report focuses on the numbers throughout the year, along with the company’s activities and milestones across the four quarters. Third Quarter FY24 (Ending March 2024) Impact Minerals has focused heavily on advancing its Lake Hope Project as planned earlier since the beginning of the year with other exploration activities. Lake Hope, WA: The project achieved...
What shift in market dynamics can you expect with Donald Trump’s latest tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China?
Donald Trump proposed 25 per cent tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10 per cent tariffs on China are set to take effect on Tuesday, February 4, following his executive orders on February 1 directing the administration to impose duties on these three trade partners. As per the report, an additional 25 per cent tariff will be applicable to all imports from Canada and Mexico, except energy resources, which will face a 10 per cent duty instead. Image source: Britannica The President's order specifies the tariffs will apply to those products entering the US for consumption or withdrawn from warehouses for consumption on or after 12:01 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on February 4, 2025. Goods already in transit to the United States with scheduled arrival at 12:01 a.m. on February 1 are exempt from...
Indian aluminium giant reports historic Q3 performance: EBITDA jumps 30% Y-o-Y
Vedanta Aluminium, a key subsidiary of Vedanta Limited, has announced a historic performance for Q3 FY25, achieving its highest-ever third-quarter EBITDA of INR 11,284 crore (US$1.34 billion), marking a significant 30 per cent year-on-year increase. Image Source: https://www.vedantalimited.com/ Record production amid rising domestic demand Aluminium production for the quarter stood at 613 thousand tonnes, reflecting a 2 per cent Y-o-Y growth. However, production increased marginally from 609 thousand in Q2 FY25 ( up 0.7 per cent Q-o-Q). Alumina production surged by 7 per cent to 505 thousand tonnes, supported by advancements at the Lanjigarh refinery. Notably, Vedanta Aluminium recorded its best-ever quarterly value-added product (VAP) sales at 317 tonnes, a 16 per cent Y-o-Y increase....
Gränges AB in 2024: higher sales, stable profit, and reduced carbon emissions demand attention
Sweden-based Gränges AB, a global leader in aluminium rolling and recycling, announced its production and financial results for 2024, reporting record-high sales volume and earnings. Gränges operates recycled-content aluminium facilities in Sweden, China, Poland, and the United States. In the US, it operates a scrap-fed melt shop and casting facility, commencing in 2023. Fiscal achievements In the fourth quarter of 2024, Gränges sold 130.3 thousand tonnes of recycled and rolled aluminium products, up by 21 per cent Y-o-Y, and earned SEK 6,184 million (US$558.205 million). For the full year, the sales volume amounted to 505.8 thousand tonnes, reflecting a 9.2 per cent rise Y-o-Y, valued at SEK 23,506 million (US$2,118.27 million). With the increase in sales volume, the company's adjusted...
Aluminium demand in India to zoom 7-9% by 2028 as EV Sales Surge 27%
At the recently concluded Material Recycling Association of India (MRAI) international conference held in Jaipur from 28 to 30 January, Mohan Agarwal, managing director and chairman of a prominent secondary smelter CMR Green Recycling, projected robust growth in India’s secondary aluminium demand. Agarwal forecasted a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7-9 per cent between 2023 and 2028, with demand expected to rise from 1.7 million tonnes in 2023 to approximately 2.4-2.5 million tonnes by 2028. The automotive sector is poised to be a key driver of this growth, with demand anticipated to increase at a CAGR of 7-11 per cent. India’s automotive sector, already the third-largest market globally, surpassed Japan and now trails only China and the US, according to government reports from...
China’s 2024 aluminium foil trade overview: top 5 export destinations and values revealed
China wrapped up 2024 with a staggering growth of aluminium foil exports, reaching above 1.5 million tonnes. Although the export volume in December decreased significantly by about 28 per cent month-on-month following the cancellation of export tax rebates and the looming threat of increased tariffs in some countries, China’s annual export volume saw no adverse impact. Image source: Nantong Hengjin Composite Material Co., Ltd. According to the International Trade Administration, China’s aluminium foil exports at the end of 2024 amounted to 1.55 million tonnes, reflecting an impressive rise of 18.32 per cent from 1.31 million tonnes in 2023. The historical data shows China’s aluminium foil exports have grown consistently over the past ten years since 2014 when the export volume was 867,634...
85% probability of 10% tariff on Canadian aluminium and other imports: Analysts
Commodity markets are factoring in heightened chances that US President Donald Trump’s sanctions on Canadian imports will include raw materials such as oil, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which cautioned that petrol prices in the Midwest could rise if the penalties affect crude flows. Differences in regional pricing for commodities such as aluminium and crude copper indicate an 85 per cent probability of a 10 per cent tariff being imposed, analysts including Samantha Dart and Daan Struyven said in a note. Lower probabilities were associated with higher eventual tariffs, they added. Canada is by some margin the largest supplier of primary metal to the United States, accounting for 79 per cent of total imports in the first 11 months of 2024. On the other hand, the re-elected...
Here’s why India needs an LME warehouse to support the AL business
Anuj Bareja, Founder and Managing Director of Asier Metals Private Ltd, stated at the LME Mumbai Forum on January 27, 2025, that establishing London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses in India could help mitigate the carbon footprint associated with transporting aluminium. With sustainability measures concerning aluminium and the future implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) levies, having these warehouses locally would eliminate the need to transport aluminium to LME-registered facilities in Southeast Asia for storage and delivery. “Why does India need to ship out 1.5 million tonnes of aluminium to Southeast Asia? Are we not burning fuel?” Bareja said, emphasising the need for LME warehouses in India where the metal can be stored and drawn out domestically. There...
2024: World alumina production grows 2.6%, supported by Chinese refineries with strong profitability to afford high-priced bauxite
The world alumina production saw a significant hike in 2024, withstanding the bauxite supply shortage compared to the growth in demand. China, the world’s largest alumina producer, saw a continued bauxite supply gap in 2024 yet exceeded expected production. That could be possible due to the significant profitability of alumina refineries, enabling them to accept high-priced bauxite and continue operations. Image source: Made-in-China According to the International Aluminium Insititute, the world’s alumina production totalled 147.047 million tonnes in 2024, reflecting an annual increase of 2.61 per cent from 143.313 million tonnes. Of the total output in 2024, metallurgical-grade alumina accounted for 93.95 per cent by producing 138.151 million tonnes, while chemical-grade accounted for...
Russia’s quid pro quo: EU’s 16th sanction package altered ahead of enforcement?
Speculations of a phase-wise ban revolve around the European Union’s 16th sanction package against Russia as the date of implementation draws near. Russia, which has been at gunpoint since its invasion into Ukraine. Opposing the Russian Federation’s annexation of Crimea and Sevastopol in 2014, a political call by the Russian Federation to recognise Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts as independent entities (followed later by Kherson and Zaporizhzhia), and the Russian Federation’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the EU introduced a series of trade-related restrictive measures (till date 16) known as sanction packages. The 16th sanctions package, circulated among member states this week, proposes measures that would cut approximately 15 banks off from the SWIFT banking system....
Top 5 technological advancements boosting the progress of upstream aluminium in 2024
Technical advancement in any industrial sector is the secret agent steering the business forward. From implementing artificial technology to indulging in advanced machinery, the aluminium industry has similarly progressed through the path of time, overcoming numerous snags along the route. Here, we are to recapitulate the top five technological advancements that have shaped the growth of the industry in one way or another. Metso’s innovative single-stage SAG mill solution In February 2025, Metso secured a landmark order for a single-stage semi-autogenous grinding (SAG) solution for a low-carbon aluminium project in China. The comprehensive delivery includes six SAG mills with a total installed power of 45MW, along with a Mill Reline Machine (MRM). Metso’s commitment to technological...
Market Commentary: China is transitioning from 2024 to 2025 with bold trade strides as global geopolitics weigh in
Aluminium prices edged up by 0.08 per cent to close at INR 252.75 (USD 2.92) amid renewed investor optimism over China following comments from former US President Donald Trump hinting at a potential trade deal with the world's largest consumer of metals, as reported by investing.com. Market sentiment was further buoyed by developments within the European Union, which is preparing to impose sanctions on imports of primary aluminium from Russia. This anticipated move, the EU's geopolitical move of continual phasing-out of Russian aluminium, is a trend that has accelerated since European manufacturers began distancing themselves from Russian goods following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Overview of China's aluminium trade front China's aluminium export trade exhibited significant growth...
Trade analysis: Australia’s aluminium export value booms on strong metal prices
Australia is on course to achieve a record-breaking performance in aluminium exports, with the metal now ranking as the fourth-largest export category after iron ore, coal, and natural gas. According to the International Trade Administration, Australia’s aluminium exports in the first eleven months of 2024 totalled 1.322 million tonnes, valued at US$3.283 billion. Image source: Freepik Delving deeper into export volume and value According to the historical data from the International Trade Administration, Australia’s year-to-date aluminium export value demonstrated a significant jump of 4.12 per cent from US$3.153 billion to US$3.283 billion. However, on the other hand, export volume decreased by 0.90 per cent Y-o-Y from 1.333 million tonnes to 1.321 million tonnes. In the full year 2023,...
Hydro joins Suppliers Partnership for the Environment to empower automotive industry with low-carbon aluminium
Norsk Hydro ASA, a Norwegian aluminium and renewable energy company, has reportedly joined the Suppliers Partnership for the Environment (SP), uniting with a group of automotive manufacturers, suppliers, and environmental organisations to work together towards a shared sustainability vision. Image source: Freepik Explaining the reason for joining, Duncan Pitchford, President of Hydro Aluminum Metals USA, said aluminium is an infinitely recyclable product capable of serving as a safe and reliable raw material. So, by joining the Suppliers Partnership for the Environment, Hydro will be able to supply sustainable raw materials to carmakers. Even SP Director Kellen Mahoney believes that having Hydro as a member will help the collaboration empower low-carbon aluminium and recycling solutions...
