Upstream recap: From Donald Trump’s tariff declaration to tariff reprieve to aluminium price hike, this week sees it all

All eyes have been on the primary aluminium industry ever since Donald Trump directed his administration to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. Where will the United States source its downstream aluminium raw materials, and where will Canada redirect its primary metal? Trump's tariff declaration has led to too many questions while at the same time sparked a level of controversy with the President's most recent decision to reprieve his North American neighbours. Amid all this, there are also some other unignorable highlights from this week's upstream aluminium industry, such as a 26 per cent rise in Jamaican alumina export value, strong prediction for a 2025 aluminium price hike based on foreseen supply deficit in the market, Alcoa's substantial financial gains but bearish outlook for 2025, and so on.

First, let’s take a quick glance at this week’s most sensational news: Donald Trump’s 25 per cent import tariffs on one of the most crucial trading partners, Canada, which supplies 69 per cent of the United States’ total imports of 3.85 million tonnes. So, the question remains: where will this amount of aluminium come from to offset the deficit if Canada stops exporting aluminium to the US? Otherwise, the US domestic downstream manufacturers will have to pay the 25 per cent tariff to Canadian suppliers. So, Jorge Eduardo Dyszel, risk management consultant and expert in base metals and the London Metal Exchange, warns that the US may face higher premiums for securing aluminium due to fewer available sources.