AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
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Trade overview: US aluminium scrap exports through the first ten months of 2024
The United States is one of the leading aluminium scrap exporters in the world, with an annual average export volume close to 2 million tonnes. In 2023, the country exported 2.06 million tonnes, and by October, 1.74 million tonnes was shipped. In the first ten months of the subsequent year, the export volume totalled 1.73 million tonnes, reflecting a Y-o-Y dip of 0.6 per cent, according to the US Census Bureau Statistics. Was this decline consistent throughout the first ten months? What factors contributed to the fall? And which country had the most significant impact on the drop? All these will be closely studied in this comprehensive article. Month-on-month export volume trend To address the first question, let us delve into the month-wise export volume by the United States. In the...
Kwinana closure savings lag as Alcoa tackles environmental hurdles with $260M spend
Alcoa is set to invest US$163 million (AU$260 million) in a now-mandatory water management system at its caustic red mud storage site in Kwinana, as savings from the shutdown of its 60-year-old alumina refinery have been slower than anticipated. The closure, announced in January 2024, was initially expected to cost up to US$200 million (AU$319 million), including US$81 million earmarked for water management and US$55 million allocated for the redundancy or redeployment of 800 employees. Furthermore, Alcoa intends to spend US$70 million in 2024, preparing for a shift to a new mining area within the Jarrah forest, with more significant investments expected in 2026. This comes as the company continues to face scrutiny in Western Australia (WA) after revelations two years ago that its strip...
Trade & Pricing: Europe's billet market trend 2024-2025
European aluminium billet market is beginning its new calendar year, keeping a cautious look over its shoulder, as demand remains sluggish amid hidebound buying practices, while production cuts intend to leave the supply chain vulnerable to sudden fluctuations. Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, has publicised that the European aluminium 6060/6063 billet premium at London Metal Exchange (LME) cash plus $555 per tonne DDP Germany January 10, on net 30-day payment spans, up 46 per cent Y-o-Y, but contemplating a 12 per cent decline from 2024’s peak of $630 per tonne DDP (Delivery Duty Paid) in late August owing to softer demand. The Italian premium was evaluated at LME cash plus $555 per tonne DDP on January 10 for net 60-day payment terms, ascending 48 per cent year-on-year but...
World’s primary aluminium production grows 3% Y-o-Y: key contributing countries revealed
The world's primary aluminium industry has wrapped up 2024 with an annual production of 72.758 million tonnes. Could it break the record of the previous year or surpass AL Circle's outlook? Of course, it did by 2.9 per cent from the earlier year's output of 70.716 million tonnes and by 1.05 per cent of AL Circle's projection of 72 million tonnes. Until November 2024, the production volume was summed up at 66.622 million tonnes, meaning the remaining amount of 6.236 million tonnes was achieved in December alone, marking the highest monthly output ever. Month-on-month, the world's primary aluminium production in December recorded a rise of 3.3 per cent from 6.037 million tonnes, and on a year-on-year, it edged an increase of 3.02 per cent from 6.053 million tonnes. The daily average output...
Top upstream agreements in aluminium value-chain from across the globe
2024 has been all about jumping hoops to advance in the industrial progress for the non-ferrous metal, aluminium. The entire extraction and the subsequent production, starting from bauxite mining, progressing through alumina refining and finally reaching the manufacturing of a varied type of aluminium, is a mammoth task. And, producers across the globe, at times, need each other and even external supporting entities to steer forward. Today, we delve into some of the crucial agreements and contracts from the calendar year that shaped the industry smoother than before. NTPC to supply uninterrupted power for NALCO’s smelter expansion NTPC Limited (National Thermal Power Corporation) and National Aluminium Company Limited (NALCO), a Navaratna Company, came together in a non-binding Memorandum...
Trade tensions emerge early in Trump 2.0 with tariff threats on China, Mexico and Canada; aluminium industry on edge
At the dawn of the new presidential era on January 20, 2025, Donald Trump announced his intent to impose a 10 per cent tariff on Chinese product imports, including aluminium, as early as February 1. Following the news, the three-month aluminium price on the London Metal Exchange decreased by 0.9 per cent to US$2,611 per tonne, feeling the pressure of trade tensions. On his second day in office, the US President called for an investigation into US-China trade to assess potential penalties on Chinese goods. Previously, he had threatened China with a 60 per cent tariff on imports but later adjusted his proposal to a 10 per cent duty, despite which China's blue-chip CSI 300 index and the Shanghai Composite index closed nearly 1 per cent lower, representing the highest fall in nearly two...
Market Commentary: European aluminium industry performance report 2024
The European aluminium industry needs swift action to keep the region competitive in the wake of high energy prices, expensive raw materials and increased global competition, Paul Voss, director general of industry body European Aluminium, told S&P Global Commodity Insights in an interview at the aluminium trade fair in Dusseldorf on October 8, 2024. "There is a need for a serious shift to competitiveness for the European aluminium industry; we won't sit and wait for someone to solve our problems; we must engage," Voss said. According to International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data, the European aluminium industry has steadily declined across the past decade, with Western and Central European primary aluminium production deflating 25.5 per cent from 2010 (production during this year was...
Know why there’s a demotion in investment outlook for Norsk Hydro ASA
RBC Capital Markets, a global investment bank providing banking, finance, and capital markets services, has reduced its ratings for the Norwegian aluminium and renewable energy company Norsk Hydro ASA from "outperform" to "sector perform". The revision in investment outlook follows Norsk Hydro's share decline by 3.2 per cent on Tuesday, November 21, indicating a probability of the company's bearish performance amid shifting market conditions. Image Source: Norsk Hydro The anticipated aluminium price fall in the near future due to increased production, backed by alumina supply ease and new capacities commissioning in India and Indonesia, is likely to weigh on Hydro's revenue. According to RBC's projection, aluminium prices, which have risen by over 5 per cent year-to-date, will decline by...
Eurowings gets thumbs up for 40 new state-of-the-art Boeing 737-8 MAX aircraft
Lufthansa Group has announced the deployment of 40 brand-new Boeing 737-8 MAX aircraft to its value carrier, Eurowings. The gradual integration of these advanced short- and medium-haul jets will position Eurowings as one of the operators with the youngest fleets in European aviation. Image Source: Business Traveller About Boeing 737-8 MAX The Boeing 737-8 MAX incorporates aluminium in its construction. This aircraft is built using high-strength alloys, including aluminium and titanium, engineered to endure extreme conditions. Equipped with cutting-edge, fuel-efficient engines, these next-generation aircraft will significantly lower fuel consumption and noise emissions. The first delivery of the Boeing 737-8 MAX is set for 2027, with all 40 aircraft expected to join the fleet by 2032....
Jan-Oct’24: US aluminium plates, sheets and bars imports record a 22% hike despite the slower recovery in recent times
Until October 2024, the United States imported 1.03 million tonnes of aluminium plates, sheets and bars versus 842,000 tonnes a year ago. That reflected an annual hike of 22.37 per cent, driven by back-to-back significant import volumes from April to July 2024, ranging between 106,000 and 120,000 tonnes. From August onwards, imports decreased below 100,000 tonnes, averaging around 93,000 to 96,000 tonnes. According to the United States Geological Survey, imports of aluminium plates, sheets, and bars increased month-on-month, though they remained below the levels observed in the second quarter of 2024. In October 2024, the United States aluminium plates, sheets and bars imports stood at 96,200 tonnes versus 94,100 tonnes in September and 77,600 tonnes in October 2023, marking M-o-M...
China’s December aluminium production grows 4.2%, leading to 2024 output to 1 million tonnes shy of the production cap
China's aluminium production continued to increase in December 2024, backed by newer production capacity and increased operating rate like the last month. According to the data recently published by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's aluminium output in the final month of 2024 rose month-on-month as well as year-on-year by 1.62 per cent and 4.2 per cent, respectively. Image Source: Made-in-China China's aluminium output in December stood the highest in the final quarter of 2024, at 3.77 million tonnes, with daily production averaging 121,612 tonnes. Although the monthly output in December stood higher than 3.71 million tonnes in November , the daily production decreased by 1.66 per cent M-o-M from 123,667 tonnes to 121,612 tonnes. China's total aluminium production in the fourth...
South32 reports resilient H1 production performance despite robust challenges
South32, a globally diversified mining and metals company, reported strong aluminium production figures for the half-year ended December 2024. The report strongly highlights the company’s focus on operational excellence and resilience amidst external disruptions. According to the company’s December 2024 Quarterly Report, total aluminium production increased by 5 per cent to 604 kilotonnes, compared to 575 kilotonnes in the corresponding period of the previous year. Image Source: https://www.south32.net/ Aluminium’s operational performance The increase in aluminium output was primarily driven by the improved performance of South32’s operations at Hillside Aluminium, Mozal Aluminium, and Brazil Aluminium. Hillside Aluminium in South Africa delivered robust results as the smelter operated...
Aluminium: The silent force powering tomorrow’s transport, tech & eco-innovation
Welcome back to another edition of Editor's Pick, where we bring you an exciting collection of comebacks, innovations, groundbreaking launches, and more. As 2025 begins to unfold, I can't help but wonder: Where did 2024 disappear to? Both November and December served as a pivotal moment for aluminium's end-user sectors—a time to reflect on the successes of the past year and lay the groundwork for a brighter, more sustainable future. What is that one thing that aluminium can't do? The question is a bit difficult to answer. Because aluminium is omnipresent – from our kitchen to the industries, aluminium's adaptability and sustainability have cemented its significance across diverse sectors, including automotive, construction, packaging, aerospace, and consumer electronics. The year 2024 has...
Here’s why India needs aluminium as its cornerstone to achieve her ‘Viksit Bharat’ vision
The non-ferrous green metal has changed the nation’s economic sustainability for countries like USA and UAE. Yes, we are talking about aluminium’s indispensability in domestic as well as commercial sectors across the globe. However, India is yet to utilise the full potential of one of the most promising base metals. With timely interventions, India can depend upon aluminium as the cornerstone of its Viksit Bharat vision, nurturing a bright economic future for the republic. Recent global incidents have endowed India with a hoard of opportunities and challenges, wherein bullish trade dynamics in aluminium are resurging off the back of its versatile applications. China’s decision to put a stop to its export tax rebate policy is a significant development that is likely to increase the price...
Rio Tinto surprises with steady operations in 2024 after facing fire outbreak & energy crisis; technology and collaboration played a key role
Rio Tinto, a leading global mining group focused on finding, mining and processing the Earth's mineral resources, has wrapped up another year with impressive operation growth, as highlighted by its CY2024 results. From production volume to energy efficiency or safety measures, the company has demonstrated tangible improvements across all areas. Production overview In the full year 2024, Rio Tinto's bauxite production summed up at 58.7 million tonnes, reflecting a 7.5 per cent year-on-year rise from 54.6 million tonnes in 2023, following an annual increase of 2 per cent in the final quarter (Q4) output to 15.4 million tonnes, attributed to the implementation of the Safe Production System, delivering record annual production at Amrun and Gove. The company's aluminium production also grew in...
Guyana 2024: Bauxite mining outmatches 225% as compared to 2023
The Guyana Government has revealed that the bauxite mining business is back with a bang as 2024 witnessed a new high of production inflation amounting to 225 per cent as compared to 2023, with 1.7 million tonnes produced from the two overseas companies that mine in the nation. “Bauxite has been a success story over the last few years. In 2023, the production of bauxite was at 523,732 tonnes,” Minister of Natural Resources Vickram Bharrat said during his ministry’s annual review press conference. Image Source: https://www.kayak.co.in/Guyana.103.dc.guide Earlier in January, Dr Mohamed Irfaan Ali , President of Guyana, proudly commented during his official statement on the substantial improvement of bauxite production in the country during his tenure. In his statement, he mentioned the...
Is Germany playing a responsible part in Guinean bauxite mining?
While bauxite plays a crucial role in the global economic and trade landscape, the mining of the substance should not ideally pose a threat to humanity. Guinean bauxite mining, especially when coming to German firms, has long seen a different reality. Image Source: https://www.energymonitor.ai/ For quite some time, Germany’s lion’s share of its bauxite import has been from the African state of Guinea. In 2016, the German commercial bank ING DiBa provided the largest single credit of a consortium (including the World Bank Group) loan of over €248 million for the expansion of a bauxite mine through the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, also known as BMWK, through ‘guarantees for untied financial loans’, reserving 15 per cent of the mine’s annual output. According to...
A greener future through aluminium: Top 2024 sustainable initiatives
The term "smart" has evolved beyond its traditional association with human intellect, finding its way into the heart of modern industry. Today, it stands as a symbol of innovation and foresight, shaping everything from smart technologies that revolutionise how we live and work to smart environments that redefine the spaces we inhabit and smart ecosystems that connect nature and technology in harmony. This transformation reflects an undeniable global momentum to weave sustainability into every thread of existence, creating solutions that optimise efficiency and nurture the planet. And when talking about sustainability, aluminium stands out as the ultimate choice. Unlike most materials that degrade with each cycle, aluminium retains its quality through endless reuses, transforming old...
