85% probability of 10% tariff on Canadian aluminium and other imports: Analysts
Commodity markets are factoring in heightened chances that US President Donald Trump’s sanctions on Canadian imports will include raw materials such as oil, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which cautioned that petrol prices in the Midwest could rise if the penalties affect crude flows.
Differences in regional pricing for commodities such as aluminium and crude copper indicate an 85 per cent probability of a 10 per cent tariff being imposed, analysts including Samantha Dart and Daan Struyven said in a note. Lower probabilities were associated with higher eventual tariffs, they added. Canada is by some margin the largest supplier of primary metal to the United States, accounting for 79 per cent of total imports in the first 11 months of 2024. On the other hand, the re-elected President threatened Mexico with tariff imposition, which is a major supplier of aluminium scrap and aluminium alloy to the USA. This could further complicate the commodity markets.
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