AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
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US backs Russia instead of Europe for the first time in draft resolution by Ukraine – is this a shift in trade ties?
The United States' unprecedented support for Russia in blocking a draft resolution by Ukraine at the United Nations has sent shockwaves through the market as soon as the news surfaced today, February 25. For the first time in three years since Russia invaded Ukraine, the United States has come out in support of Russia. The resolution called for "de-escalation, an early cessation of hostilities and a peaceful resolution of the war against Ukraine, marked by enormous destruction and human suffering, including among the civilian population, in line with the Charter of the United Nations and international law". Backing Russia, United States President Donald Trump stated that "major economic development transactions with Russia" could take place, and just hours after the statement, Putin...
Feasibility check: Why the US aluminium industry can’t afford to lose Canada
The United States and Canada have long shared more than just a border — they’ve built an aluminium supply chain that’s deeply intertwined and vital to both economies. As the US grapples with declining aluminium production and mounting energy costs, the importance of Canada’s role has never been clearer. Let’s break down why the US aluminium industry leans so heavily on its northern neighbour — and why replacing Canada simply isn’t an option. Image Source: https://www.benefitsandpensionsmonitor.com/ A shrinking giant: The state of US aluminium production Once a global leader in aluminium production, the US now produces just 1.2 per cent of the world’s aluminium supply. According to the US Geological Survey (USGS), the US had a primary aluminium production capacity of 1.36 million tonnes in...
‘Speed but not haste’: India and UK renew their trade vows after eight-month pause
India and the UK have resumed negotiations for a free-trade agreement (FTA) after an eight-month break on Monday, February 24, with the two sides of the table focussing on a triple hike in bilateral trade with a ‘mutually beneficial and forward-looking’ deal by going past tariff and non-tariff issues while protecting each other’s ‘sensitivities’. The statement of affirmation was mutually declared by India’s commerce minister, Piyush Goyal, and UK Secretary of State for Business and Trade, Jonathan Reynolds. The Bilateral Trade Agreement sessions between the United Kingdom and India involve negotiation on 26 tangents, which include goods and services, intellectual property rights, sustainability along with labour rights for both nations. According to the International Monetary Fund...
Alba’s 2024 done right with whopping financial growth and record production, but uncertainty looms for 2025
Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. (Alba), the world's largest smelter ex-China, has announced its fourth quarter and full-year results for 2024, reporting an impressive growth in financial output, coincided with its new high of net finished production at 1,622,261 tonnes. Image source: Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. Fiscal figure In the fourth quarter of the year, the company yielded a profit of BD37.1 million (US$98.6 million), which was 58.5 per cent higher than a profit of BD23.4 million (US$62.2 million) earned in Q4 2023. For the full year, Alba reported a profit of BD184.5 million (US$490.8 million), up by 56.4 per cent from BD118 million ($313.9 million) . Alba's comprehensive income in Q4 2024 was BD38.1 million (US$101.3 million) against BD16.3 million (US$43.2 million) a year ago – up by 134.4...
The right deal for America and US aluminium: Charles Johnson, president & CEO, The Aluminum Association
Last week, President Trump signed a proclamation strengthening existing Section 232 aluminium tariffs that he originally implemented in 2018 on national security grounds. There’s a lot to like and a lot we support in the president’s action. Though – and this is critical – for our industry’s growth, and for national security, we must maintain tariff-free access to aluminium from Canada. The Aluminum Association welcomes the Trump administration’s focus on this critical material and our industry’s ability to compete. We want and need to open new smelting capacity in the United States, which is President Trump’s intent. It’s been 45 years since the U.S. built a new primary aluminium smelter. Strategic use of these tariffs – paired with unleashed American energy – could help get us there....
Can India’s ‘zero-for-zero’ approach tackle US reciprocal tariffs? Here’s its context, impact and more...
A Global Trade Research Initiative’s (GTRI’s) flagship report on Friday has put the spotlight on a plethora of possibilities for the Indian Government to tackle US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs that can potentially hit the Indian trade setup hard enough. One of which has pulled many eyeballs, including the government itself — India can consider a ‘zero-for-zero’ tariff approach, which is practically lowering import duties on select products that it does not import in higher quantities from the US as part of the proposed Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA). On this note, government officials have revealed to a national media publication that the consideration was in full swing, and discussions commenced with stakeholders in sectors like automobiles and auto components, in which...
Indian carbon market coming by 2026, will the aluminium sector fall under its scope?
India is set to launch its much-anticipated carbon market by 2026, Union Power Minister Manohar Lal announced on February 21, 2025. This initiative will be a game-changer for Indian industries, particularly exporters, as they strive to align with global carbon emission standards. By helping businesses curb emissions and transition away from fossil fuels, the move aims to strengthen India's position in the global marketplace while advancing its sustainability goals. Companies in industries like steel and cement are increasingly concerned about the impact of the European Union’s (EU) Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which imposes tariffs on high-carbon imports. To remain competitive in the EU market, manufacturers will need to adopt greener energy sources and reduce carbon...
A comprehensive guide to top 7 aluminium-built motorcycles under 500cc
Motorcycle enthusiasts, get ready to rev your engines! Whether you're a city commuter, a leisure traveller, or an adventurous rider, the two-wheeled world has some exciting new offerings for you in 2025. In this article, we'll take a closer look at seven models that are worth considering, with a special focus on their use of aluminium and their price points. Triumph Speed T4: dual-tone elegance Triumph has recently launched the latest iteration of its Speed T4 model, and it's a sight to behold. Available in four new dual-tone colour options – Caspian Blue with Pearl Metallic White, Lava Red Gloss with Pearl Metallic White, Phantom Black with Pearl Metallic White, and Phantom Black with Storm Grey – the Speed T4 boasts a sleek and stylish design. Featuring cast aluminium alloy 10-spoke...
CBAM needs fixing — before it’s too late for European aluminium
The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) was introduced as a bold step in the fight against climate change. It is meant to prevent carbon leakage—where companies move production to countries with weaker climate policies—by ensuring that imported goods face the same carbon costs as those produced within the EU. In theory, this levels the playing field for European industries while pushing other nations towards greener practices. But there’s a problem: CBAM, in its current form, simply does not work for aluminium. Instead of protecting one of Europe’s most critical industries, it risks making it uncompetitive, increasing costs for manufacturers, and even worsening global emissions. Without urgent reforms, CBAM could do more harm than good. An aluminium industry on the...
NALCO reveals detailed plan for its INR 30,000 crore expansion plans — following five years deemed crucial
NALCO’s announcement of INR 30,000 crore (USD 3.45 billion) investment in aluminium business expansion brought to the public by Union Minister of Coal & Mines and Parliamentary Affairs, Pralhad Joshi, is its first major capex in recent times, including setting up an INR 17,000 crore (USD 1.95 billion) aluminium smelter capacity. State-owned Navratna PSU, National Aluminium Company (NALCO), has chalked out a distribution plan for its progressive INR 30,000-crore expansion plan , marking its first massive capital expenditure in contemporary times. The development project is set to conclude by FY30, with an INR 17,000-crore investment in an additional aluminium smelter construction and noteworthy projects in mining and downstream product manufacturing. Global mining leader Rio Tinto Canada...
Each tonne of aluminium manufactured through recycling results in saving of 5-6 tonnes of bauxite, 1-1.5 tonnes of limestone, 20-25 tonnes of water and ~14000 kwh of energy: Mohan Agarwal, MD, CMR Green Technologies
Mohan Agarwal, Managing Director, founded CMR Green Technologies in 2006 with a single plant. Today, the company has grown to 12 plants across India. CMR is a pioneer in the industry to scale up, and over the past few years, it has expanded its metal recycling capacity to over 418,000 tonnes per annum. Since its inception, CMR has recorded a CAGR of over 25 per cent and solidified its position as India's leading producer of aluminium-based die-cast alloy, a critical component for automotive manufacturers. In this Interview, Agarwal has put the spotlight into the Indian aluminium recycling business. He reveals about the dips and floats of the ever-evolving market and shares his experience of surfing through the tides of time. AL Circle: What is the primary business model of CMR Green...
Market volatility and geopolitical risks drive China’s aluminium prices higher
The past week has been all about the dynamic shift driven by rising domestic prices, US tariff policies, and fluctuating supply-demand dynamics in the global aluminium market. According to various news platforms, Chinese aluminium spot prices have hiked to RMB 20,524 per tonne (USD 2,862 per tonne) in South China, followed by RMB 20,504 per tonne (USD 2,859 per tonne) in East China. Both the regions were separately up 1.67 per cent and 1.65 per cent week-on-week. This increase was fuelled by a 0.84 per cent gain in LME prices to USD 2,636 per tonne, trending higher by 1.51 per cent week-on-week along with stronger downstream demand. Meanwhile, a potential speed-breaker looms as the US, under the Trump administration, has imposed a 10 per cent tariff from February and intends to slap...
Japan and Vietnam pilot through individualistic route to deal with Trump’s tariff
Japan has officially requested an exemption from US President Donald Trump’s proposed 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminium, as well as other reciprocal tariffs, according to a report from Tokyo-based Kyodo News. Meanwhile, Vietnam is prepared to engage with the United States to discuss the new tariffs on steel imposed by Washington, aiming to avoid the risk of additional duties, as stated by a spokesperson for its foreign ministry. Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya made the request during a brief exchange with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. Iwaya also expressed Japan’s eagerness to hold high-level security talks between the foreign and defence ministers of both nations “at an early date.” According to a statement from...
Decarbonising aluminium, a roadmap from Outlook 2025
The aluminium industry stands at a turning point in its path to sustainability. With mounting regulatory pressures, bold corporate ambitions, and accelerating innovation in clean energy technologies, the industry is keenly engaged in decarbonising its footprint. The shift is not without difficulties, but it also holds tremendous opportunities to align with global climate ambitions. This article discusses the most important factors influencing the decarbonisation roadmap based on the Global Aluminium Industry Outlook 2025 . The transition to renewable energy: The use of renewable energy is one of the most important measures to decrease carbon emissions in the aluminium industry. Renewables will provide 45 to 50 per cent of the world's power supply by 2030 and rise to 60 to 70 per cent by...
Hydro’s 2024 performance unveiled: a recapitulation of finance, sustainability, and social responsibility
Norsk Hydro’s 2024 was challenging, but the business had an overall growth-hinting year. There have been several superlative financial, environmental, and social achievements during the calendar year. Financial performance While there was a drop in adjusted Return on Average Capital Employed (RoaCE) from 22.2 per cent in 2022 to 8.5 per cent in 2024, with an adjusted EBITDA standing at NOK 26.3 billion. Hydro has overseen the pursuit of its profitability target of over 10 per cent across the cycle. The company reported NOK 10.1 billion (USD 907.98 million) in accumulated improvements through its ongoing programme against the 2018 baseline, edging closer to its target of NOK 9.5 billion by 2024. Commercial ambitions also saw NOK 2.6 billion in accumulated improvements, reinforcing Hydro’s...
November records a strong monthly surge of 12.64% in US aluminium scrap exports with Thailand bagging the top position
The United States is one of the leading aluminium scrap exporters in the world. As per the United States Geological Survey (USGS) data, in November 2024, a total of 196,000 tonnes of aluminium scrap was exported from the US, which, when compared to Y-o-Y, reflected a significant surge of 20.24 per cent or 33,000 tonnes. For November 2023, the amount stood at 163,000 tonnes. The USGS data further revealed that from January to November (2024), a total of 1,920,000 tonnes of aluminium scrap was exported from the US. Y-o-Y comparison showed that for the same span of time in 2023 a total of 1,900,000 tonnes of scrap was exported, recording a modest year-to-date (Y-T-D) hike of 20,000 tonnes. Month-on-month (M-o-M), aluminium scrap exports in November recorded a substantial 12.64% growth...
Hindalco unfazed by Trump’s tariff bombshell — Novelis has leverage over share prices!
The US President’s surprise move to impose a 25 per cent tariff on all steel and aluminium imports has sent shockwaves across global markets. However, industry experts have reinstated their trust upon Hindalco’s 100 per cent subsidiary Novelis, confirming that it is well-equipped to weather this storm. The 20-year-old Atlanta-based business has been owned by Indian metals company Hindalco Industries since 2007. Novelis, a major exporter of aluminium to the US, has made a recent USD 2.5 billion investment in a new plant in Alabama and is seen as a strategic hedge against potential tariff impact. Brokerage firm Nuvama says ‘the effect of tariff imposition, if it happens, shall be minimal on Novelis’s earnings’. The Hindalco management has indicated that any increase in aluminium prices due...
US aluminium industry faces crisis as smelter closures undermine tariff protections
The United States’ aluminium sector is facing an existential crisis, with the number of operational smelters dwindling to just four. Despite the 25 per cent tariff on steel and aluminium imports introduced by the Trump administration, the primary aluminium industry remains in decline, struggling with high energy costs and competitive pressures from overseas—particularly China. Tariffs and the reality on the ground Trade groups representing US steel and aluminium producers have welcomed decisive trade actions, including tariffs, arguing they are necessary to counter unfair competition. However, the CEO of the Aluminum Association has acknowledged a harsh reality, “There is not enough smelting capacity in the United States to supply the growing aluminium industry with the input materials it...
