AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
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Tariffs bite: US domestic B&C sector struggles with rising project costs as aluminium prices mount
Concerns over slowing business continue to resurface as the United States’ steep tariffs on aluminium and steel imports weigh heavily on domestic manufacturing industries. While the packaging sector has repeatedly raised red flags, the building and construction industry is now warning of mounting challenges amid the newly raised 50 per cent import duty — an issue that remained unresolved in the US-China trade talks held on June 11. Image source: Autodesk American real estate and construction companies are largely drawing attention to the potential financial strain that aluminium and steel tariffs could impose, using hypothetical cost projections to illustrate the impact. In a recent webinar, Sarah Vakili, Senior Director of Business Planning and Strategy at Skanska USA Building, one of...
Israel and Iran under tension: How is India, among all global aluminium giants, hit? Prices indicate stress.
As a result of the ongoing geopolitical discord between Israel and Iran, the Indian aluminium industry (though not impacted directly) is feeling the rippling heat in pricing. In an unexpected turn of events, India’s aluminium price has slipped to INR 242 per kg, contemplating the global metal pressures exacerbated by currency swings and rising oil. Image for referential purposes only The chain of events unfolds to be in this order — Israel and Iran under a military clash, which has led to the latter region’s oil supply chain being disrupted. The Sensex (India) has then fallen 1300 points. As aluminium production is highly energy-intensive, notably smelting alone accounts for nearly 40 per cent of production cost. The Middle East, especially the Gulf region, is a major natural gas and fuel...
LME integrates CBAM-aligned emissions tracking into listed aluminium businesses — must submit data from June ’25
In a market increasingly ruled by emissions accountability, the LME has stepped forward with a landmark measure to align metals trading with the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). As of June 15, 2025, all listed aluminium brands are required to submit verified emissions data through LMEpassport, the exchange’s digital certificate system. Image source: https://www.consultancy.uk/ At its core, the initiative is about harmonising with Brussels. The LME emissions reporting form asks producers to disclose Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions, tailored precisely to match EU CBAM standards. Reporting is mandatory for brands under Primary Aluminium, Aluminium Alloy, and NASAAC. Prior to the recent development, on May 1 2024, the LME released a consultation on the proposed...
US-China trade talks in London yield a framework. Yet core tariffs remain intact!
Last week, high-stakes trade negotiations between the United States and China reconvened in London, marking the second day of talks on June 10 at Lancaster House. After months of escalating tensions and retaliatory trade barriers, negotiators have emerged with what they called a 'framework agreement', a non-binding but symbolic structure meant to uphold the 90-day tariff truce struck in Geneva in May. While the framework itself lacks legal enforceability, it does offer a potential de-escalation route in a trade war that has shaken supply chains across critical sectors, including aluminium, electronics, defence, and electric vehicles. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed the broad contours of the deal, suggesting that while headline tariffs...
India-US auto parts tariff tussle: Strategic talks, WTO rejections, and the bigger geopolitical game
As Indian and U.S. officials engaged in closed-door negotiations to finalise trade deals ahead of July’s tariff hikes, a parallel development added friction to an already delicate situation. The Trump administration formally rejected India’s request for consultations at the World Trade Organization (WTO)—its second such attempt—this time over the steep 25 per cent tariff on auto parts. Image source: vecteezy.com The juxtaposition of collaborative trade discussions and WTO resistance has triggered a wave of speculation about Washington’s real intentions. While on one hand, Trump has defended its position by citing national security grounds, which exempts the tariff from WTO jurisdiction, on the other, he has expressed his willingness to hold one-on-one discussions with India on the auto...
3% aluminium stock rise in Japan, coupled with Q3 premium drop, signals market softening
Japanese general trading house Marubeni Corp reported that aluminium inventories at Japan’s three major ports (Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka) increased for the second consecutive month. As of the latest end of May data, the stocks rose to 331,000 metric tonnes, marking an increase of 3.3 per cent from April 2025. Continued increase in stocks in addition to premium drop underscores the ongoing weakness in aluminium demand in the Asian country. Moreover, the recent news reporting 0.2 per cent GDP shrinkage in Japan, albeit better than the initial estimation, further reflects the subdued market sentiment. How stocks moved M-o-M This month-on-month build-up started in April when stocks rose 3.4 per cent. In contrast, inventory levels in February 2025 saw a 3.5 per cent decline from the previous...
Here’s how Ghana is advancing its ambitious aluminium agenda; six new bauxite mining licences are in
The Ghana Integrated Aluminium Development Corporation (GIADEC) has reportedly secured six new bauxite mining licences and achieved an essential milestone towards realising the country’s long-standing vision of building a fully integrated aluminium industry. Image source: Ghana Bauxite Company The news came on Thursday, June 12, after Chief Executive Officer of the Corporation, Reindorf Twumasi Ankrah, confirmed the arrival of new mining licences that would help Ghana unlock its full mining potential of estimated 920 million tonnes of bauxite in three major locations - Nyinahin, Awaso, and Kyebi. “This is the foundation of a fully integrated aluminium value chain that begins in the soil and ends with high-grade aluminium products for global export.” Mr Ankrah aptly remarked, highlighting...
Vedanta Aluminium sets the benchmark for sustainable water management in India — pushes for 'Water Positivity by 2030'
In a country where water scarcity is both a rural crisis and an industrial liability, few sectors are as thirsty and as scrutinised as the aluminium industry. With primary aluminium production requiring anywhere between 20,000 to 40,000 litres of water per tonne, efficient water use isn’t just an operational concern; it’s a socio-environmental imperative. While reliance on dated, extractive water systems and rudimentary discharge mechanisms usage remains a key focus area to work upon as an industry, Vedanta Aluminium has helmed sustainable operations with a narrative of an apt blend of recycling, zero-liquid discharge, and community water stewardship. Image for representational purposes only What typically happens to water in aluminium production Water is integral across the aluminium...
Hydro’s hiring freeze, plant closure and curbs only one side of the plan Thus, the expansions and the investments...
Norsk Hydro has been in the headlines for contradictory reasons. On the one hand, they have been announcing closures, curbs, and a temporary hiring freeze, and on the other, they have made news for investments, expansions, and inaugurations in the past few months. Given Norsk Hydro’s repeated reaffirmations of its strategic commitment to its 2030 vision, it is time to assess its actions’ substance and scope. Image for referential purposes only The most recent announcement made by Hydro is that it is temporarily freezing its hiring of ‘white collar workers’ for affected areas. However, it has also been mentioned that hiring in the Business areas will remain unaffected. This measure, as mentioned in the official press release, is explicitly undertaken to strengthen the company’s “future...
Donald Trump’s 50% tariff: A boon or blow for US aluminium companies?
As voices from aluminium associations across US trade-allied nations grow louder, one consensus is becoming clear that the United States’ decision to increase tariffs on aluminium imports to 50 per cent is unlikely to benefit its global partners. Now, whether this bold move by Donald Trump will favour his own domestic market or not is the pressing question that continues to divide the aluminium industry. The United States relies heavily on overseas suppliers for primary aluminium, downstream products, as well as scrap. Imposing such a steep tariff across these categories raises concerns over potential supply disruptions within the country, yet some US-based producers are betting on gains. Image source: X Century Aluminum, a primary aluminium producer, sees the tariff as an opportunity,...
Aluminium influence and overall commodity consumption cushion Japan’s Q1 GDP, shrinkage is lower than feared
Japan’s economic engine, though sputtering, is not stalling just yet. Revised data from the Cabinet Office show that Japan’s GDP shrank by only 0.2 per cent annualised in Q1 2025, sharply better than the earlier estimate of 0.7 per cent, and just enough to keep recessionary panic at bay. The improvement was primarily driven by a surprise uptick in private consumption, which accounts for over half the nation’s GDP. From restaurants to gaming, updated spending data lifted consumption growth to 0.1 per cent, reversing the earlier flat-line reading. Image for representational purposes only What’s more, domestic demand contributed 0.8 percentage point to growth, effectively offsetting the 0.8 percentage point drag from net exports. However, the modest rebound is unlikely to shift the Bank of...
Africa & Asia’s alumina production growth persists - April sees 4.5% jump with Indonesia a key driver
In April 2025, while most countries and regions witnessed a month-on-month decline in alumina production, there was one region that stood out as an exception and that was Africa & Asia (ex-China). According to the International Aluminium Institute, alumina production in Africa & Asia (ex-China) during April was 1.173 million tonnes, up by 4.45 per cent from the previous month’s 1.123 million tonnes. Production insights IAI data further indicates that Africa & Asia’s alumina output in April marked the second consecutive monthly rise, following a 7.36 per cent increase in March. In April, the growth extended but recorded relatively modest rate than the earlier month. As a result of increase in monthly output during April amid sluggish global alumina production, Africa & Asia’s (ex-China)...
Brazil battles back, as soaring US tariffs on aluminium & steel threaten industrial backbone and SME survival
From June 4, 2025, Trump's 25 per cent tariff on aluminium and steel doubled to 50 per cent, creating tension among worldwide manufacturers, especially those heavily relying on exports. Owing to this, most Brazilian manufacturers are pushing back against the US tariffs on aluminium and steel. What circumstances are making the Brazilian manufacturers retaliate? Image source: legamart.com Impact on Brazil’s overall GDP With the effectiveness of the 50 per cent tariff, Brazilian manufacturers have faced immense challenges, especially for the small and medium enterprises deemed to be the major contributors to Brazil's industrial GDP. In 2024, Brazil’s GDP stood at USD 5.48 trillion as per the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). As per the data of Market Research Future, aluminium's contribution to...
Relief with a catch: Europe sees scrap leakage risk in US tariff exemptions
Note: This image is AI-generated and for representation purpose only The Trump Administration’s latest aluminium tariff hike to 50 per cent has triggered renewed concern among traders and manufacturers over a further shift in trade dynamics to a point where export markets may face a deepening blow. European aluminium producers are neither immune to this strain as worries linger over an increasingly fragile trade environment and fear grows for the further destablisation of trade relations between the two key economic partners. But more than tariff hike, what currently causes sleepless nights to the European aluminium industry is tariff exemption on scrap. Earlier, during the implementation of 25 per cent tariff effective from March 2025, the United States duty exemption on scrap already...
UAE’s upcoming gallium facility aims to fuel EGA’s Net-Zero targets by 2050: Here’s how
Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), the world’s leading ‘premium aluminium’ producer, has long been a trailblazer in the global metals sector. From being the first in the Middle East to join the Aluminium Stewardship Initiative to pioneering the international sale of UAE-developed industrial technology, EGA has consistently set benchmarks. Building on this legacy, EGA has now taken a significant step toward advancing rare metal production. In collaboration with the Tawazun Council and RTX , EGA has signed a MoU to establish the UAE’s first gallium production source further cementing its leadership in strategic material development and sustainable industrial growth. Now here comes the question – Why Gallium? Gallium (Ga) is closely linked to the aluminium industry, as it is commonly recovered...
India-US trade: Can India & US seal the deal? July 9 deadline fuels enduring partnership optimism, albeit past turbulence
India’s talks with the US for a Bilateral Trade Agreement, which would smoothen gross exports worth USD 86.5 billion (FY 2024–25 data, up 11.6 per cent from FY 23–24), are walking on a double-edged sword. Image source: Linkedin (Handle: Harnam Prajapati) With the progression of a second Trump administration, there is a renewed and pressing push for comprehensive trade relations. Current high-level negotiations are underway, with India and the US aiming to finalise an interim three-phase trade agreement by June 25, ahead of a potential July 9 deadline for the USA’s 26 per cent reciprocal tariff on India, which is currently suspended. While Indian exports still face America’s standard 10 per cent baseline tariff, discussions are focused on securing duty reductions across labour-intensive...
Energy ‘transition’ or ‘triage’ — which do they choose? A global journey from idealism to realpolitik
When energy heavyweights, financiers and geopolitical policymakers convened at CERAWeek 2025, they confronted a truth too long ignored: the path to a net-zero future is being redrawn by geopolitics, national security imperatives and a resurgent fossil-fuel lobby. The publication titled ‘The energy transition’s disrupted path forward’ by S&P Global Commodity Insights, which gathers all the key points from the convention, it is clear that what emerges is not an orderly glide to clean power, but a fractured landscape where ‘energy security’ increasingly trumps decarbonisation. For industry leaders and investors, this realignment demands recalibrated strategies, deeper risk assessments and a readiness to pivot on both policy and market fronts. Image for representational purposes only (Source:...
190% surge in US premium - how are the US market and consumers reacting to it?
The implementation of the United States’ tariff hike to 50 per cent on June 4 instantly prompted a 4.85 per cent surge in the US Midwest duty-paid premium on the physical market on June 5, clocked at USD 973, compared to USD 928 the previous day. Image source: lme.com Trump doubled the aluminium and steel tariff from 25 per cent to 50 per cent, creating severe tensions among key players in the industry worldwide, especially those heavily reliant on imports and exports. Ever since Donald Trump proposed tariffs on aluminium and steel with his second term of his presidency, the US Midwest duty-paid premium witnessed a gain of 190 per cent. It is already known that the US heavily relies on imports when aluminium is in question. To date, the exports have been paying the premiums per the...
